we pick up another league on Thursday & EPL next week, let's keep rolling !
GL

Bundesliga since returning

22 road wins (+10.45 units)
10 home wins (-24.85 u)
14 draws (+16.10 u)

Road teams scored first 28 times and were shut out 9 times

Home teams scored first 15 times and were shut out 16 times

3.022 goals per match (139 total)

La Liga, the top soccer league in Spain, returns on Thursday with the Seville Derby between Sevilla and Real Betis. Thursday’s showdown kicks off 15 straight days of La Liga action, so buckle up.

Sevilla have enjoyed a fantastic season so far and will look to solidify their third-place position behind title-chasers Real Madrid and Barcelona. Real Betis, on the other hand, sit in the middle of the table and don’t have all that much to play for as they are safe from relegation trouble but also likely too far behind in the race for European football next season.

That being said, this is one of Spain’s fiercest rivalries so expect both teams to be up for it as they get the honor of welcoming back La Liga.

Sevilla
Los Nervionenses were having one of their most successful La Liga seasons ever before the world came to a halt. Their success is legitimate, too, as Sevilla ranks fourth with a +13.28 expected goal differential and trails only Barcelona, Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid in that metric.

Sevilla’s defense has been the main driver of their success in 2019-20. Los Nervionenses only allow 1.03 xGA per game, which is fourth-best in La Liga. Sevilla was trending in the right direction before the pandemic, as Los Nervionenses conceded just 0.9 xGA per match in their last last five home contests before the break.

Sevilla will line up in a 4-3-3 formation, which is a tactic that some of the world’s most successful clubs utilize because it allows plenty of options going forward. The 4-3-3 allows teams to combine two factors, a three-man central midfield — which can hold possession via passing triangles — and three strikers, who can press high up the field.

Sevilla have been terrific in the 4-3-3 and boast a +6.56 xG differential when they line up in their preferred formation. Look for Sevilla’s strong defense and overwhelming press up the pitch to cause Real Betis fits as they try to go forward.

Real Betis
Real Betis made a big splash in the transfer market before the season started bringing in Nabil Fekir (via Lyon) and Borja Iglesias (via Espanyol) for a total of $52,530,000. However, it hasn’t quite worked out the way Los Verdiblancos envisioned it. Fekir and Iglesias have only managed 6.8 xG in 46 combined appearances.

Real Betis’ struggles in front of goal are a team-wide problem as Los Verdiblancos only generate 1.3 xGF per game.

For those used to the high-scoring pace in the Bundesliga, this match will represent a gigantic change of pace. Granada and Getafe have achieved plenty of success this season by playing a pragmatic, defensive style of soccer.

Granada have taken a big step forward in their first season back in La Liga. El Graná are currently in ninth place and have an outside shot at a Europa League spot if they can finish the season strong.

Getafe are eight points ahead of Granada in fifth place and are tied with fourth-place Real Sociedad on points. The Azulones have a real chance to play their way into the Champions League next season.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Granada
Granada concede 1.14 expected goals per game, which is the fifth-best mark in La Liga. Most of Granada’s success this season has come at the Nuevo Los Cármenes Stadium where Nazaríes have earned 26 points in 13 matches, while only conceding eight goals.

All that focus on defense has had an impact on Granada’s offensive numbers as they only average 1.1 expected goals for per match. That being said, Granada was averaging 1.71 xGF per match in their last six home matches before the pause.

Getafe
Getafe has backed up a fifth-place finish last season with an even better campaign in 2019-20. With the fourth-best defensive record in La Liga (1.09 xGA per game), the Azulones have forged an identity as one of the league’s sturdiest defensive teams.

However, much like Granada, Getafe has struggled in front of net this season Overall, Getafe generate 1.32 xGF per game, but that number dips to 1.2 on the road.

With easier games on the horizon, all three points for the Azulones would be huge as they try to claw their way into the top four.

Previous Meeting
Getafe won the reverse fixture, 3-1, at the Coliseum Alfonso Pérez back in October. However, the expected goals report shows a different story as Granada was unable to capitalize on a couple of big scoring chances inside the six-yard box.

Analysis
Scoring first will be crucial in this match. Whoever gets ahead will likely park the bus and try to win the game, 1-0.

The second match of Friday’s La Liga doubleheader features two clubs that seem destined for some regression. Both Levante and Valencia are much higher in the table than they should be, at least according to expected points:

Valencia Actual Points: 42 (7th place)
Valencia xPoints: 33.91 (12th)
Levante Actual Points: 33 points (12th)
Levante xPoints: 27.25 (17th)
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Valencia has their work cut out for them, but they can still catch Atletico Madrid or Getafe and qualify for European competition in 2020-21.

Levante, on the other hand, is sitting comfortably in the middle of the table, eight points above the relegation zone. All three points for the Granotas would all but secure another season in La Liga.

Valencia
Pretty much all of Los Murcelagos’ success this season has come at the Mestalla Stadium. Valencia have not lost at home this season and boast the third-best home record in La Liga in 2019-20.

That being said, Los Murcelagos only have a +3.06 xGD at home, indicating their results at home are not sustainable over the long run. It may look like Valencia are a sure thing at home, especially since they took 13 of a possible 15 points over their last five matches at Mestalla Stadium, but even those matches are a bit fraudulent as Los Murcelagos boast a +0.67 xG differential across those five contests.

Based on their underlying metrics I just can’t trust Valencia at this number.

Levante
Levante are lucky not to be in a relegation battle considering how bad they’ve been defensively. The Granotas allow 1.87 expected goals against per match, which is the worst mark in La Liga and their 4-4-2 formation has consistently left their backline exposed.

If a team is undisciplined in the 4-4-2 it will allow huge pockets of space between the central midfielders and center backs and that’s been a huge problem for Levante, who have a -10.69 xG differential playing out of the 4-4-2.

While its all bad news on the defensive front, Levante haven’t been terrible offensively, generating 1.29 xG per game. A decent attack combined with a horrible defense has led to a lot of high scoring games for the Granotas, as 59% of their matches have gone over 2.5 goals.

Last week’s draw against Paderborn was a microcosm of RB Leipzig’s recent form, and the reason why they sit third in the Bundesliga, now 11 points behind league leaders Bayern Munich.

Leipzig dominated the opening 45 minutes, creating three clear goal-scoring opportunities, converting one. Then, RBL defender Dayot Upamecano picked up a second yellow card before halftime, and Paderborn grabbed a late equalizer in stoppage time to hand RBL a league-high 11th draw.

Hoffenheim also played the majority of its last match down a man, after an early red card in the ninth minute. Despite scoring two goals down a man, Hoffenheim were pegged back in a 2-2 draw to Dusseldorf.

Perhaps the most intriguing angle in this matchup is the managerial shuffle. Hoffenheim just sacked its manager Alfred Schreuder after the draw at the weekend. He was the manager for less than a year, as Schreuder was previously an assistant under Julian Nagelsmann at Hoffenheim, until Nagelsmann left Hoffenheim at the end of last season to take the job at Leipzig.

Getting into the matchup, both sides have had serious defensive issues since the Bundesliga has returned. Leipzig boast the league’s second best defense in terms of goals allowed over the whole season, but have slipped of late.

Die Roten Bullen have conceded five goals in its last three matches, and 4.1 xG. Despite the defensive issues, Leipzig have had no issues creating chances, scoring seven goals on 6.3 xG in its last three as well.

Both teams love to play high-press, high-flying, attacking football, and I’m not expecting Hoffenheim’s approach to change much in the first match under its new manager. Hoffenheim have conceded 5.8 xG in its last three matches and allowed three to Leipzig in the team’s last meeting.

The last time these two teams met, Leipzig won 3-1, grabbing two early first half goals and putting the game away at 3-0 before eventually conceding a late goal to Hoffenheim. The xG report suggests given the shot totals that the scoring could have been even higher, as there were a combined 5.1 xG.

Given that Nagelsmann coached them for the last four seasons, there should be some familiarity with how to break down Hoffenheim’s leaky defense, which is likely what cost Schreuder his job.

While Hoffenheim’s defense has done a solid job of keeping opponents out of its six-yard box, conceding just six goals from in close, its defense has allowed 39 from inside the penalty area, which is where RBL’s offense excels, posting a +27.60 xG difference over its opponents on shots originating from between the edge of the penalty area and inside the six yard box.

Espanyol v Alaves | Saturday 13th June 2020, 8 am

Bottom of the table Espanyol welcome Alaves to the city of Barcelona knowing it is imperative that they start picking up results. Espanyol sit six points from safety and have to improve on the fact that they currently possess the worst home record in the division.

Alaves – also known as El Glorioso – are six points clear of the relegation places and whilst the main focus will be to confirm their status as a La Liga football club for next season, breaking into the top half of the table is still feasible.

Key Stats
Espanyol:

Commit on average 16 fouls per game when playing at home (the 4th most).
Receive on average 12.6 fouls per game when playing at home.
When playing teams in the bottom half at home, this season they have seen a first half card in 4/4 and 3+ cards in 3/4.
In those games the opposition has seen 2+ second half cards in 2/4 games.
XG for at home is just 13.82 but they have only scored 12.
XG against at home is 19.92 but they have conceded 24.
Have conceded 2+ in 3/4 of their games at home to teams in the bottom half – only kept a clean sheet against fellow relegation candidates Mallorca.
Have the worst home record in the league winning just 1 in 13.
Struggle with defending counters and often commit fouls in dangerous areas.
Alaves:

Commit on average 15.8 fouls per game away from home (the second most).
Receive on average 11.2 fouls per game away from home.
When playing teams in the bottom half away from home this season they have seen a first half card in 5/5, a second half card in 5/5 and 2+ in 5/5.
In those games the opposition has seen 2+ in 3/5.
XG for away from home is 12.02 but they have only scored 11.
XG against away from home is 26.39 and they have shipped 26.
Have scored in 4/5 games away to the bottom half.
Have the third worst disciplinary record in La Liga.
Analysis
Even with 11 games to go, Espanyol are fighting for their lives and with just one win out of 13 at home, drastic improvement is essential – I expect this game will turn into a bit of a dogfight and that may play into the hands of Alaves.

Celta Vigo vs Villarreal | Saturday 13th June 2020, 11am

As La Liga was suspended, Celta Vigo started to build up a head of steam and went five games unbeaten. The Balaidos boys need to resume that progress if they want top-tier football next term.

Los Celestes sit just one point above the drop zone in 17th, but on WhoScored data, they have the easiest of the run-ins from the sides at the bottom end of the table, with this being one of their more difficult assignments.

Villarreal had won just one of their last six games in all competitions before the break and that’s seen a seven-point gap build between themselves and the European spots. It’s fair to say that the Yellow Submarine's defence has been leaky. It’s just two away clean sheets all season.

Shooting for glory
Villarreal have some interesting figures as they return to action. They sit third in the Expected Goals (xG) table with an output of 47.71 xG. When it comes to shots per 90, the Yellow Submarine ranks second with 13.48. And, their shots on target per 90 average is the third-best in the Spanish top-flight at 4.37.

Celta’s figures are much lower and that’s part of the reason they find themselves in their predicament. They sit third-lowest for shots per 90 at 9.52, with just 3.3 hitting the target. In terms of xG, they’ve created just 28.49xG. However, they do manage to restrict their opposition with just a 33.42xGA.

So, there’s a chance the hosts will have to stifle this attacking Villarreal side, who don’t mind a pop at goal, but it’s the visitors who have a worse xGA and have conceded more goals, so a glimmer of hope for Celta. That makes it a bit of a head-scratcher!

Players to watch
Pione Sisto found himself in hot water when breaking lockdown laws, but is likely to feature. I saw him in the flesh a few years ago against Atletico Madrid and was impressed by his pace and power.

He’s only scored two goals this season, but one of them was an important late winner against Sevilla. Meanwhile, he tops the shooting accuracy charts for the club with 48%, so could be worth looking at his shots on target markets.

The main man for Oscar Garcia’s side is former Liverpool man Iago Aspas. He’s single-handedly dug them out of holes at times with nine goals. But he can be hot-headed and with six cautions to his name is one that could end up in Valentin Pizarro’s notebook.

The betting angles
It’s a case of being careful as both sets of players get back into the rhythm and swing of things. A few punters will note what’s happened in Germany with games behind closed doors looking to have a negative impact on home performances. However, I’ve noticed an angle regarding both sides and it looks to be worth siding with here at an odds-against price. This is stats-heavy, so stick with me.

There have only been 22 goals scored in their home games this season – an average of 1.69 per game, so relatively low-scoring. Breaking that down further, 68% (15) of those goals have come in the second half.

The stats point to a dour first half. There have only been 15 first half goals in Celta’s league games this season – they’ve only netted five of those. Plus here at Balaidos, there have only been seven goals before the break with Celta netting just two.

Again it’s a similar pattern with Villarreal. Their games average 3.04 goals per game, but on the road that reduces to 2.79 per game. And, 59% of those goals have come after the break (23 of 39).

Given the is the first game back and the Spanish June heat taking its toll, then backing the most goals to be scored in the second half looks a sensible play on this evidence at 11/10 with Betfair. The 0-0 half-time score might tempt a few in with that being the outcome in seven of Celta’s 13 home games that have seen blank first 45s. It’s 15/8 with Sky Bet, but it’s not a market that can draw me in.

Hertha Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Saturday 13th June 2020, 9:30

Since Bruno Labbadia took charge of Hertha Berlin there has been a revolution in the capital. Ten points collected from a possible 12 was an impressive start which came to an end against Borussia Dortmund but that should not dampen the confidence of Die Alte Dame.

The 1-0 loss against Dortmund could be viewed as a sign of how far they have come since they had a new man calling the shots. To come away from a game at Signal Iduna Park and feel disheartened not to pick up three points speaks volumes.

Meanwhile, Frankfurt's season has been utterly inconsistent. Just when you think Die Adler are finally turning yet another corner they put in a dismal display against Mainz and did not even threaten to look like they could put a dent into the relegation candidates.

Back-to-back away wins against Wolfsburg and Werder Bremen made many, including myself, believe Eintracht filled with all their talent could put together a run to challenge for Europa League, but Frankfurt put in a vintage Frankfurtesque performance once more.

Hertha are looking for their third win in a row on home soil and have been one of the only Bundesliga clubs who have not been affected by the lack of crowd on their own turf. Matheus Cunha has an outside chance of returning from concussion (which would be a huge boost) but momentum with whoever the capital club starts should be key to gaining all three points.

Frankfurt may be now safe from relegation with 35 points, but their dismal performance last time out probably puts their Europa League hopes at an end. Without much left to play for, the visitors may now just let their season fizzle to an unspectacular end.

Hertha have a good squad and their players are playing to their maximum potential right now, which is what should set them above Frankfurt, who are certainly nowhere near the maximum performance levels.

Collectively, Espanyol and Alaves have managed just W3-D8-L15 in their combined home/away La Liga games this season, scoring 23 and conceding 50.

58% saw BTTS bank – none have thankfully ended goalless - whilst the duo have kept just 3/26 clean sheets.

Two teams at opposite ends of the Bundesliga pecking order will do battle on Saturday morning.

Borussia Dortmund seems destined to finish in second place, four points ahead of RB Leipzig but seven points behind Bayern Munich, though their underlying metrics suggest they should be a little bit further down the table. BVB have outscored their expected goals by 22 in 30 games so far in 2019-20.

Dusseldorf are basically right where they belong, in 16th place and staring down a potential playoff with the third-place team from the second division to see who gets the honor of playing in the Bundesliga in 2020-21.

On paper, this is a mismatch.

Even though Dortmund have been fortunate to put up their terrific offensive numbers in 2019-20, they should have a huge edge going forward on Saturday.

Dusseldorf’s defense has improved over the last couple of games but for they’ve been shambolic in front of their own net for most of the season, ranking dead last in expected goals allowed in 2019-20.

I’d be a little weary backing BVB against a sturdier defense, but I see no reason to argue with their odds against Dusseldorf. When you convert the three-way moneyline to implied probability this is what you get:

Dortmund: 70.8%
Draw: 17.4%
Dusseldorf: 11.8%
Instead of laying the big moneyline with Dortmund, I think there’s plenty more value taking them on the alternate spread. Considering that Dusseldorf desperately needs points to stay out of the automatic relegation zone, I’m expecting this match will open up at some point. Dortmund is -375 to score first and if they do, Dusseldorf will need to take more chances to hunt for the equalizer.

Freiburg at Wolfsburg

9:30 a.m. ET

Freiburg are due for regression at some point this season and their win over Borussia Monchengladbach last week is a microcosm of their season so far. Freiburg won the match despite losing the expected goals battle, 2.35 to 1.6 and they were playing against 10 men for the final 23 minutes of the match.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Freiburg’s actual goal differential sits at 0, but their xG differential is an ugly -17.73. Freiburg’s day of regression is coming.

Wolfsburg have lost both of their home matches since the Bundesliga returned to play and that has been an issue that’s plagued Die Wölfe all season. Oliver Glasner’s side have only taken 18 of a possible 45 points at Volkswagen Arena this season but their +0.39 xG differential and 1.02 xGA per match suggest they’ve been a bit unlucky not to have better results.

Wolfsburg are known for their defensive prowess but, since the Bundesliga returned to action, Die Wölfe have really improved their offensive output scoring 1.93 xG per game and bringing their expected goals scored per game up to 1.57 for the year.

This might be the biggest match on the Bundesliga slate, with both clubs looking to secure the league’s final Europa League berth.

Wolfsburg is currently in the driver’s seat in that race, sitting in sixth place on the table with 45 points. However, Freiburg is just four points back in eighth and looks to grab all three points in this match. Freiburg really can’t afford to drop any points moving forward, due to the fact Hoffenheim is on 43 points and better positioned to supplant Wolfsburg in the standings.

As for the matchup on the pitch, it has really been a mixed bag for both sides leading up to this showdown, with Wolfsburg playing better the second half of the season. The hosts earned a 1-0 victory against Werder Bremen in their latest outing, making them unbeaten in nine of their last 11 league matches. Offensively, Wolfsburg has been solid the entire campaign and sits seventh in expected goals (47.83) in the league.

On the opposite side, Freiburg picked up a 1-0 shutout against Borussia M. Gladbach last weekend and the much-needed three points. It was just the third win for Freiburg in its last 11 games, so there had to be some optimism during training leading up to this match. Goals have been relatively hard to come by Freiburg, which finds itself in 13th place expected goals (38.93) this season.

I really like Wolfsburg in this match, largely in part due to its better form and distinct home-field edge against a Freiburg side that is winless in 11 of its last 12 road Bundesliga contests.

Villarreal matches average the highest Expected Goals (xG) per-game figure in La Liga this season (3.00) with 20/27 (74%) games featuring Over 2.5 Goals.

On the road, 11/14 (79%) of the Yellow Submarine’s matches have produced at least 3 goals.

Exclude the bottom-six and Frankfurt have lost 7 of 9 away games this season whilst 12 (80%) of their 15 away Bundesliga games have featured Over 2.5 Goals.

Bayern Munich are one win away from securing an eighth-consecutive Bundesliga title, and fourth-place Borussia Monchengladbach is the only team standing in the way of the dominant champions as the two sides will meet on Saturday afternoon.

Bayern will be without three of its best attackers, two due to suspension and one to injury.

Striker Robert Lewandowski (30 goals) and hybrid-winger Thomas Muller (7 goals, 20 assists) will miss on Saturday due to accumulating a fifth yellow card in Bayern’s 4-2 win over Bayer Leverkusen. Winger Serge Gnabry also picked up an injury in training and is doubtful to play, while Thiago remains out in the midfield.

Even shorthanded, Bayern have plenty of attacking options. Ivan Perisic, who scored the opening goal in Bayern’s DFB-Pokal semi final win on Wednesday over Frankfurt, Leon Goretzka and Kingsley Coman all bring plenty of attacking ability, just not to the extent Bayern is used to with Muller and Lewandowski.

In fact, all four of Bayern’s top scorers in the league will not play in Saturday’s match, including at least 50 of the team’s 87 total league goals.

Monchengladbach have struggled away from home in attack of late, and will be without their joint-leading scorer Alassane Pléa. Pléa has 10 goals in 2019-20, but was sent off in a 1-0 defeat to Freiburg last Friday and is suspended for Saturday’s match.

Gladbach have plenty of attacking talent to offset this setback, including through attackers Marcus Thuram (10 goals) and Breel Embolo in the midfield.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Gladbach have failed to score in each of their last two away matches, a 1-0 defeat to Freiburg and a goalless draw with Werder Bremen. But over the course of the season, The Foals have the fourth-most Bundesliga goals and are third in expected goals.

Last time these two met in December, Gladbach keeper Yann Sommer made a crucial late save and The Foals converted a 92nd minute penalty to upset Bayern, 2-1.

If Atletico Madrid want to qualify for Champions League football they will need to take all three points from their trip to Athletic Bilbao on Sunday morning.

Atleti are currently in sixth place and just a point outside of a Champions League spot, which is a disappointment for a club that has finished inside the top four in each of the last seven seasons.

Athletic Bilbao sit right in the middle of the table, with an outside shot at a Europa League spot. Three points against one of the top teams in La Liga could add some juice to Los Leones’ bid for a spot in the 2020-21 Europa League.

Athletic Bilbao
Athletic Bilbao were up and down prior to the break.

Los Leones had great moments, beating Barcelona and Real Sociedad at home, but have also had disappointments like going 1-5-1 against the bottom five teams in La Liga.

Los Leones currently have a +6 goal differential, but their -3.6 expected goal differential indicates they have overachieved this season. Before the world came to a halt, Bilbao wasn’t in a very good run of form only earning seven of a possible 21 points with an xG differential of -2.83 in their last seven matches.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Bilbao has really struggled in front of the net this season and their 1.09 xG for per game ranks 16th in La Liga. They will no doubt have a difficult time breaking through La Liga’s best defense on Sunday morning.

Atletico Madrid
It has been a very interesting season for Los Colchoneros.

Currently in sixth place, Atletico is in a dog fight with Getafe, Real Sociedad and Sevilla for the final two Champions League spots. However, Atletico has been the third-best team in La Liga when it comes to expected goals.

Los Colchoneros have an expected goal differential of +18.10, which ranks third in La Liga behind Real Madrid and Barcelona.

For those who aren’t aware, Atletico Madrid plays a different style of football than the rest of the world.

Playing out of a 4-4-2, Diego Simeone values achieving defensive perfection over a high-powered attack. For years, Los Colchoneros have been Europe’s most difficult defense to break down.

Keeping eight players behind the ball, Atletico create a defensive wall that works in unison to deny the opposing team space to play through the center or between the lines.

This forces opponents to play through the wide areas to access the penalty area. Atletico allow just 0.90 xGA per 90 minutes when they play out of the 4-4-2. It is their bread and butter.

Previous Meeting
Atletico Madrid won the reverse fixture, 2-0, at the Wanda Metropolitano Stadium. It was a typically dominant performance by Atletico, as the expected goals report shows, Bilbao wasn’t able to create any significant chances against Atletico’s defense.

Athletic and Atletico have combined to see 22/26 (85%) of their combined home/away games this season feature U2.5 with an average of 1.73 goals.

Augsburg at Mainz

9:30 a.m. ET, FS1

Only one point separates 14th-place Augsburg and 15th-place Mainz in the Bundesliga table and a look below the surface shows that these two teams are near mirror images of one another.

When you convert the listed odds to implied probability you see how tight this game is projected to be:

Mainz: 41.4%
Draw: 28.2%
Augsburg: 30.4%
All of this makes sense as neither Augsburg nor Mainz do anything particularly well. They both grade out below average defensively and are pretty pedestrian going forward, too.

Weirdly the two teams are in near-identical form going into the weekend. They each have a win, two draws and two losses from their last five matches.

At the moment, neither Augsburg nor Mainz are in too much relegation danger but a loss for either side on Sunday morning could put them in a precarious situation. Werder Bremen, currently in 16th place, are just four points behind Augsburg and three behind Mainz.

Both teams will want to add a bigger buffer between them and Werder as we head into the season’s final three weeks.

Even though both of these teams average over 3.25 goals per game bookmakers are expecting a relatively tight affair as the Over/Under is set at 2.5 goals, which is on the lower end for the Bundesliga. Perhaps the oddsmakers are expecting both sides to keep things safe and avoid a big mistake that could land them in a precarious position to close out the season.

Recent form also points to a low-scoring match as these two teams have combined to score just four goals in their last six games combined.

Madrid/Bilbao DRAW +198