|
msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
|
Race 6: The Fort Marcy Stakes
3:39 p.m. ET
The Grade II Fort Marcy kicks off the stakes racing at Belmont on Saturday. The race will be run over the inner-turf course for 1 1/8 miles and is for four year olds and up.
Chad Brown’s barn has been quiet this spring due to the pandemic, but now that racing is back in full force, watch out. This is a nine-horse field and Brown has four of the runners. The two that interest me most are No. 5 Instilled Regard (7-2) and No. 4 Flop Shot (6-1).
Instilled Regard is a lightly raced five-year-old, who only has six tries on the turf with one win, one second and three thirds. What I like most about him in this spot is his versatility; he’s shown the ability to sit just off the pace, in a stalking trip, or rally from further back. With the lack of speed in this race, he’s going to need to be closer to the pace in order to win here.
Flop Shot is owned by Peter Brant. Brown and Brant have had a number of wildly successful horses together and, like a number of other Brant-owned horses, Flop Shot is shipping over from Europe and making his US debut in this spot.
Chad Brown wins at a 21% clip when his horse is shipping in to the US and a 28% rate when a horse is making its first start with him as the trainer. Both of Flop Shot’s wins in France came at roughly 1 1/8 miles and he flattened out late in his last two starts, so he should appreciate the shorter distance.
The horse that really caught my attention here, though, is No. 2 Gucci Factor (6-1). The seven-year-old son of Gio Ponti has seven wins and one third from 10 career turf starts and, more importantly, has five wins and one third from eight career starts over the Belmont turf course. He’s definitely a horse for the course.
That said, this is definitely his toughest challenge to date and will be up against it without much pace, but he did have the highest Beyer speed figure last time out.
|
06-06-20 04:58 PM |
|
|
| |
|
msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
|
Race 9: The Runhappy Carter Handicap
5:36 p.m. ET
The last stakes race of the day is part of the Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series, meaning the winner gets an automatic and free entry into the Breeders’ Cup.
The G1 Runhappy Carter Handicap features a deep field of 11 horses, three years old and up, running seven furlongs over the main track. This has the makings to be a great thoroughbred race.
My top pick is No. 10 Mind Control (4-1). I highly doubt that we will get his morning-line odds of 4-1 near post-time, as he’s the only horse with a G1 victory to his name in this field and is one of two (No. 11 Vekoma) who has won multiple graded stakes.
Mind Control has six wins, two seconds and one third from 11 starts on the fast main track, with four wins and one third in six starts at the distance. He’s coming in on a three-race win streak and he’s getting jockey John Velazquez back aboard, who has been up for five of his seven career victories.
Mind Control has shown tremendous versatility, winning in gate-to-wire fashion, sitting a stalking trip and most recently closing from off the pace. He’s the one to beat.
No. 11 Vekoma (7-2) is sent out by trainer George Weaver. Vekoma had a lot of success early in his career, breaking his maiden right here at Belmont at first asking as a two-year-old and he followed that up by winning the G3 Nashua.
As a three-year-old he was put on the Derby trail, finishing third in the G2 Fountain of Youth and winning the G2 Blue Grass before running a dismal 13th in the Derby.
He was then sent to the sidelines for 10 months and made his four-year-old debut at Gulfstream in a non-graded stakes event where he won going away by 3 3/4 lengths. While it was great to see him get back to the winner’s circle, especially after the long layoff, he will need to continue to move forward from that start if he’s going to win today.
Weaver is only 9% in graded stakes races and 10% coming off a 61-180 day layoff, but he is 19% with horses coming off a win and 20% in dirt races.
My favorite longshot for this race is No. 7 American Anthem (15-1). He has six wins, three seconds and three thirds from 18 career starts. Three of those wins have come against graded stakes company, but the most recent was almost two years ago in the G2 San Carlos.
Since then, he hasn’t finished better than third against this type of company, although in his most recent graded stakes start earlier this year, he finished fourth by 3/4 of a length.
Trainer Danny Gargan is 25% in sprints, 25% off a 61-180 day layoff and 29% route to sprint, but only 10% in graded stakes.
With the aggressive Kenny Carmouche in the irons, you know he will be in the thick of it early, the question is can he hold.
|
06-06-20 05:02 PM |
|
|
| |
|
| |
|