The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Profitable Systems
Two good teams (.500 or more) take the dog: 87-87 (50%), plus 24.03 units
Two bad teams (.499 or less) take the favorite: 73-42 (63.5%), plus 6.47 units
Non-conference Road dogs: 91-102 (47.2%), plus 20.97 units
Short road dogs ( 130 or less) coming off a win: 24-19 (56%), plus 9.25 units
Dogs with line movement in their favor (think 120 to 115): 119-132 (47.4%), plus 10.74 units
Rested team (2-4 days off) off a loss vs tired team on 2nd night of a back-to-back: 39-27 (59%), plus 5.11 units
A team on 3 days of rest vs a team on 2nd night of a back-to-back: 26-14 (65%), plus 4.79 units
Well-rested road favorites (3-4 days off vs team who missed playoffs previous year): 26-15 (63%), plus 4.74 units
Most profitable teams to bet one
Islanders 27-15, plus 10.93 units
Capitals 30-15, plus 9.1 units
Rangers 21-22, plus 6.51 units
Blues 27-17, plus 6.2 units
Jets 23-21 plus 5.9 units
Avalanche 25-19, plus 5.5 units
Oilers 24-22, plus 4.81 units
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01-11-20 11:18 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Pittsburgh Penguins at Boston Bruins
Penguins odds: +120
Bruins odds: -140
Over/Under: 6
Time: 7 p.m. ET
You’d think a team that is headlined by Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin would be known for its offense, but the Penguins have turned themselves into a defense-first dynamo in 2019-20.
The Penguins own the league’s best goal differential (+36) this season and their defense allows the fewest expected goals (2.02) against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5.
It’s worth noting that this is a defense that has been without Brian Dumoulin, Kris Letang and Justin Schultz for chunks of games. Only one defenseman on Pittsburgh’s roster, Marcus Pettersson, has featured in all 46 games for Mike Sullivan this season.
The Penguins’ commitment to defense has come at a bit of a cost, as the Pens are only generating 2.46 expected goals per 60 minutes this season, but that isn’t a huge deal when you have the type of all-world talent Pittsburgh has on its roster.
Pittsburgh’s defense has made it a force to be reckoned with in the Eastern Conference — much like the Boston Bruins, who are sputtering a bit coming into Thursday night’s encounter with Sid and Co.
Even though Boston has only won five of its last 10 games, there is no reason to panic about the way the Bruins are playing. Pittsburgh and Minnesota are the only two teams in the NHL that allow less expected goals against per 60 minutes (5-on-5) and only the Stars allow fewer goals against per hour than the Bruins.
The listed odds suggest that Boston wins this game 56.2% of the time. That also tells you that, when you adjust for home-ice advantage, the B’s would be a slight favorite on neutral ice against the Penguins.
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01-16-20 10:44 PM |
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