StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping

The FoxDen Forum : Powered by vBulletin version 2.3.0 The FoxDen Forum > Sports Handicapping, Trends, and Stats > WNBA Opening Weekend
Search The Fox Den Forum:

Subscribe to this Thread


Last Message   Next Message
    
Author
Message    Post A Reply
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

WNBA Opening Weekend

There are a number of high-profile WNBA injuries heading into the 2019 season, which tips on Friday night.

Breanna Stewart and Sue Bird, Seattle Storm
Stewart’s injury and timetable: Ruptured Achilles tendon; Out for season
Bird’s injury and timetable: Left knee surgery; Out indefinitely

Impact: The hits keep on coming for the defending champions.

After losing Stewart for the season to an Achilles injury and the revelation of coach Dan Hughes’ cancer diagnosis, things got even worse with the news that Bird could miss the majority of the season.

The losses of Stewart and Bird will likely prove insurmountable. The duo accounted for 36% of the Storm’s points and 43% of their assists last season. The Storm’s Offensive Rating fell off a cliff without Stewie and Bird, going from 117.6 when they shared the court to 94.9 with both on the bench.

Jewell Loyd will be forced into the No. 1 role now as the team’s leading returning scorer, with Natasha Howard not too far behind.

It’s worth noting that the Storm played significantly slower without Stewie and Bird, as their 74.7 pace would’ve ranked dead last among all teams in 2018. They actually defended well in that sample (97.2 Defensive Rating), too, so betting unders could prove to be a profitable play early on if there isn’t a big enough adjustment on their totals.

Old Post 05-23-19 10:23 PM
msudogs is offline Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

Candace Parker, Los Angeles Sparks
Injuries: Left hamstring
Timetable: 2-4 weeks

The Sparks should be in title contention in 2019, but there isn’t a lot of wiggle room should Parker’s injury keep her out longer than her original timetable with powerhouses Las Vegas, Phoenix and Washington lurking.

The Sparks are deep in the frontcourt — especially after acquiring Chiney Ogwumike from Connecticut in the offseason — but Parker has the type of do-it-all game that cannot be easily replaced, even among a roster full of All-Star caliber players.

The schedule won’t do Los Angeles any favors, either. The Sparks will play Las Vegas, Connecticut (twice), Phoenix and Washington in Parker’s expected absence. Still, as long as she returns to the court by the end of June, Los Angeles will have plenty of time to make a run in 2019

Old Post 05-23-19 10:23 PM
msudogs is offline Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

Diana Taurasi, Phoenix Mercury
Injury: Back surgery
Timetable: 6-8 weeks

Impact: Phoenix enters the season with a few big question marks, namely the health of Taurasi. Still, with Taurasi, Brittney Griner and DeWanna Bonner, the Mercury have arguably three of the top 10 players in the league.

They’ll welcome back a healthier Briann January, who played the entire season with a dislocated shoulder and had surgery in the offseason to address it. They added Essence Carson in free agency as well as three of the top-13 rookies in the draft. They could also get Sancho Lyttle back from a torn ACL as soon as the season opener (coach Sandy Brondello said Lyttle might be available to play limited minutes).

All roads will likely lead through Las Vegas with the Aces’ addition of Liz Cambage, but Phoenix is one of few teams that have the top-end talent necessary to compete with them, especially once Taurasi returns

Old Post 05-23-19 10:24 PM
msudogs is offline Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

Skylar Diggins-Smith, Dallas Wings
Reason: Childbirth
Timetable: To be determined

Impact: It’s a good time to rebuild for the Wings.

After Cambage forced her way out of Dallas over the offseason, the Wings’ roster is full of intriguing complementary players and high-upside prospects. But there’s a clear lack of ready-to-contribute, top-end talent on a roster that will be without its two best players from a year ago — at least to begin the season.

Diggins-Smith has left the door open for a return to the Wings’ active roster during the season, but a lot will likely depend on the Dallas’ record to begin the year and its positioning in the playoff race.

Old Post 05-23-19 10:26 PM
msudogs is offline Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

Maya Moore and Rebekkah Brunson, Minnesota Lynx
Moore’s reason and timetable: Personal; Out for season
Brunson’s injury and timetable: Concussion; Uncertain

Impact: It’s tough to really encapsulate what Moore has meant to the Lynx organization. Since she was drafted in 2011, the team has made the playoffs in eight straight seasons and gone to the WNBA Finals six times. No other team has been to the Finals more than twice over that span.

Minnesota has leaned heavily on its veterans and superstars in the past, but that will change with the absences of Moore and Lindsay Whalen (retirement). While the Lynx still have strong leadership at the top with Sylvia Fowles and Seimone Augustus, this looks to be a transition year with the heavy injection of youth into the roster. Only four of Minnesota’s 12 players have six or more years of WNBA experience.

Old Post 05-23-19 10:26 PM
msudogs is offline Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

Angel McCoughtry, Atlanta Dream
Injury: Torn ligaments in knee
Timetable: Unknown

Impact: A high-volume scorer, McCoughtry continues her recovery from a knee injury that forced her to miss the latter part of the 2018 season, including Atlanta’s somewhat surprising playoff run.

Without McCoughtry, Atlanta played bruising defense and won it fair share of rock fights during its playoff run. But as the season resets, you have to wonder if the Dream have enough scoring should McCoughtry be sidelined for a majority of the season.

Coach Nicki Collen should be praised for getting career-year type production in 2018 from several players, most notably Tiffany Hayes. But if you agree that players like Hayes, Renee Montgomery and Jessica Breland played near their ceilings last season, that combined with the team’s lack of young talent hints towards regression in 2019 — especially if McCoughtry is unable to compete at a high level

Old Post 05-23-19 10:28 PM
msudogs is offline Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
lippsman
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Dec 2005
Posts: 10835

Great info !!!!

Old Post 05-24-19 04:27 PM
lippsman is offline Click Here to See the Profile for lippsman Click here to Send lippsman a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

After opening at -8.5, the Atlanta Dream have moved up to -9.5/-10 around the market. They’re among a handful of teams with shorter than 10-1 championship odds, while the Dallas Wings have the third-worst odds in the league at 80-1.

The over/under is what is seeing the real action, though.

After opening between 167.5 and 168.5, this bad boy is down nearly 10 points to 159/160. You don’t often see totals drop this much in the NBA, eh?

Old Post 05-25-19 12:16 AM
msudogs is offline Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
lippsman
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Dec 2005
Posts: 10835

Makes you want to go over just on the principle

Old Post 05-25-19 12:29 AM
lippsman is offline Click Here to See the Profile for lippsman Click here to Send lippsman a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

Dream win 76-72!! Total lands on 148, A sweatless Under win for the wiseguys! 💰💰💰 Great start to the WNBA season!

Old Post 05-25-19 10:30 AM
msudogs is offline Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

lines are up and moving !
GL

Old Post 05-25-19 04:38 PM
msudogs is offline Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

follow the $'s early Sun opened PK now -5, took only 20 minutes
GL

Old Post 05-25-19 04:57 PM
msudogs is offline Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

all totals have fallen over 4 points
GL

Old Post 05-25-19 05:08 PM
msudogs is offline Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
HoustonFan
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Jan 2006
Posts: 6159

based on the above I put small amounts on the unders, and Conn -5. I know nothing about this league.




"Just Got Paid" -- ZZ Top
2008,2009 NCAA HOF Battle of the Brackets Champion

Old Post 05-25-19 05:55 PM
HoustonFan is offline Click Here to See the Profile for HoustonFan Click here to Send HoustonFan a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

Casual sports fans don’t follow women’s hoops, but savvy bettors do, one profitable betting strategy for Game 1 of the WNBA season.

Blindly betting favorites in the WNBA isn’t a sharp move. Since 2005, the chalk has gone 1,450-1,420-49 (50.5%) against the spread (ATS) in the regular season. But in the first game of the season that changes.

In Game 1, betting the favorite has gone 50-34-1 (59.5%) ATS since 2005. Why is betting favorites a smart play to start the year?

At no other point in the regular season is betting the favorite as profitable

Game 1 59.5%
Games 2-10 50.7%
Games 11-20 48.7%
Games 21-34 51.2%

Old Post 05-25-19 07:40 PM
msudogs is offline Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
HoustonFan
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Jan 2006
Posts: 6159

They all hit. 4-0. Thanks for the info




"Just Got Paid" -- ZZ Top
2008,2009 NCAA HOF Battle of the Brackets Champion

Old Post 05-26-19 05:21 AM
HoustonFan is offline Click Here to See the Profile for HoustonFan Click here to Send HoustonFan a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

get on now
GL

Old Post 05-26-19 05:08 PM
msudogs is offline Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

a nice finish to opening weekend !
GL

Old Post 05-27-19 12:08 PM
msudogs is offline Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
Post A Reply
  
  Last Message   Next Message

Quick Links: