Sunday, 05/26/2019 (973) SEATTLE vs. (974) OAKLAND
Favoring: OAKLAND on the money line.
Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (SEATTLE) - with a starting pitcher whose gives up 7 or more hits/start, starting a pitcher who walked <=1 hitters each of his last 2 outings
(44-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (86.3%, +33.3 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0 +3 units).

Sunday, 05/26/2019 (963) TAMPA BAY vs. (964) CLEVELAND
Favoring: CLEVELAND on the money line.
Play On - Home teams (CLEVELAND) - team with a poor OBP (<=.320) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP<=1.300) -AL, starting a pitcher who walked 4+ hitters each of his last 2 outings
(46-21 since 1997.) (68.7%, +37.1 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1 0 units).

Sunday, 05/26/2019 (959) ARIZONA vs. (960) SAN FRANCISCO
Favoring: SAN FRANCISCO on the money line.
Play On - Any team (SAN FRANCISCO) - with a team on base percentage .300 or worse on the season (NL), after allowing 9 runs or more 2 straight games
(41-19 since 1997.) (68.3%, +33.2 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0 +4.1 units).

Sunday, 05/26/2019 (979) BALTIMORE vs. (980) COLORADO
Favoring: BALTIMORE on the money line.
Play On - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (BALTIMORE) - after a game where they had 17 or more hits, with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 6.50 the last 10 games
(47-28 since 1997.) (62.7%, +38.9 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0 0 units).

Sunday, 05/26/2019 (959) ARIZONA vs. (960) SAN FRANCISCO
Favoring: SAN FRANCISCO on the run line.
Play On - Home underdogs against a 1.5 run line (SAN FRANCISCO) - with a team batting average of .250 or worse on the season (NL), after 2 straight losses by 6 runs or more
(46-11 since 1997.) (80.7%, +33.3 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0 0 units).

Sunday, 05/26/2019 (959) ARIZONA vs. (960) SAN FRANCISCO
Favoring: SAN FRANCISCO on the run line.
Play On - Home teams against a 1.5 run line (SAN FRANCISCO) - with a team on base percentage .310 or worse on the season (NL), after 2 straight losses by 6 runs or more
(47-17 since 1997.) (73.4%, +35.1 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0 0 units).

Sunday, 05/26/2019 (959) ARIZONA vs. (960) SAN FRANCISCO
Favoring: SAN FRANCISCO on the run line.
Play On - Home teams against a 1.5 run line (SAN FRANCISCO) - with a team on base percentage .300 or worse on the season (NL), after allowing 8 runs or more 2 straight games
(42-15 since 1997.) (73.7%, +32.7 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (1-2 -0.5 units).

Sunday, 05/26/2019 (959) ARIZONA vs. (960) SAN FRANCISCO
Favoring: SAN FRANCISCO on the run line.
Play On - All teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (SAN FRANCISCO) - with a team on base percentage .310 or worse on the season (NL), after allowing 9 runs or more 2 straight games
(49-16 since 1997.) (75.4%, +33.5 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0 0 units).

Sunday, 05/26/2019 (975) SAN DIEGO vs. (976) TORONTO
Favoring: Over on the total.
Play Over - Any team (TORONTO) - where team's hitters draw 3 walks or less/game on the season, after 3 straight games where they had 5 or less hits
(40-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.4%, +28.3 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (4-2 +1.6 units).

Sunday, 05/26/2019 (953) LA DODGERS vs. (954) PITTSBURGH
Favoring: Over on the total.
Play Over - Home teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (PITTSBURGH) - team with a terrible SLG (<=.390) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP<=1.250) -NL, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 on the season-NL
(44-13 since 1997.) (77.2%, +30 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0 0 units).

Sunday, 05/26/2019 (973) SEATTLE vs. (974) OAKLAND
Favoring: Over on the total.
Play Over - Road teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (SEATTLE) - cold hitting team - batting .230 or worse over their last 15 games against opponent starting a pitcher who walked <=1 hitters each of his last 2 outings
(40-13 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.5%, +26.5 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0 +1 units).

Sunday, 05/26/2019 (963) TAMPA BAY vs. (964) CLEVELAND
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - Home teams (CLEVELAND) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA <=3.50) -AL, starting a pitcher who walked 4+ hitters each of his last 2 outings
(45-15 since 1997.) (75.0%, +28.4 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0 +1 units).

Sunday, 05/26/2019 (963) TAMPA BAY vs. (964) CLEVELAND
Favoring: TAMPA BAY on the money line.
CLEVELAND is 3-17 (-16.9 Units) against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.90 or better over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CLEVELAND 3, OPPONENT 5 - (Rating = 4*)

Sunday, 05/26/2019 (969) NY YANKEES vs. (970) KANSAS CITY
Favoring: NY YANKEES on the money line.
NY YANKEES are 26-4 (+20 Units) against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game this season.
The average score was NY YANKEES 6.4, OPPONENT 4.1 - (Rating = 4*)

Sunday, 05/26/2019 (963) TAMPA BAY vs. (964) CLEVELAND
Favoring: TAMPA BAY on the money line.
TAMPA BAY is 31-19 (+23.2 Units) against the money line vs. a team with a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.45 or better over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 4, OPPONENT 3.4 - (Rating = 3*)

Sunday, 05/26/2019 (963) TAMPA BAY vs. (964) CLEVELAND
Favoring: TAMPA BAY on the money line.
TAMPA BAY is 13-7 (+14.9 Units) against the money line vs. a team with an excellent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.150 or better over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 3.7, OPPONENT 3.3 - (Rating = 3*)

Sunday, 05/26/2019 (951) MIAMI vs. (952) WASHINGTON
Favoring: WASHINGTON against the spread.
MIAMI is 1-13 (-15.5 Units) against the run line after 3 or more consecutive road games this season.
The average score was MIAMI 2.1, OPPONENT 7 - (Rating = 5*)

Sunday, 05/26/2019 (963) TAMPA BAY vs. (964) CLEVELAND
Favoring: TAMPA BAY against the spread.
TAMPA BAY is 24-10 (+15.3 Units) against the run line when playing on Sunday over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 4.7, OPPONENT 4.6 - (Rating = 2*)

Sunday, 05/26/2019 (963) TAMPA BAY vs. (964) CLEVELAND
Favoring: TAMPA BAY against the spread.
CLEVELAND is 14-35 (-27.1 Units) against the run line when the run line is (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CLEVELAND 3.6, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 2*)

Sunday, 05/26/2019 (963) TAMPA BAY vs. (964) CLEVELAND
Favoring: TAMPA BAY against the spread.
TAMPA BAY is 39-19 (+19.8 Units) against the run line vs. a team with a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 4, OPPONENT 3.7 - (Rating = 2*)

Sunday, 05/26/2019 (969) NY YANKEES vs. (970) KANSAS CITY
Favoring: Over on the total.
NY YANKEES are 14-1 OVER (+12.9 Units) in road games vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse this season.
The average score was NY YANKEES 6.7, OPPONENT 4.8 - (Rating = 5*)

Sunday, 05/26/2019 (969) NY YANKEES vs. (970) KANSAS CITY
Favoring: Over on the total.
NY YANKEES are 14-1 OVER (+13 Units) in road games vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game this season.
The average score was NY YANKEES 7.6, OPPONENT 4.7 - (Rating = 5*)

Sunday, 05/26/2019 (969) NY YANKEES vs. (970) KANSAS CITY
Favoring: Over on the total.
NY YANKEES are 10-0 OVER (+10.1 Units) as a road favorite of -125 or more this season.
The average score was NY YANKEES 8.5, OPPONENT 4.4 - (Rating = 4*)

Sunday, 05/26/2019 (969) NY YANKEES vs. (970) KANSAS CITY
Favoring: Over on the total.
NY YANKEES are 16-3 OVER (+13 Units) in road games vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game this season.
The average score was NY YANKEES 6.6, OPPONENT 4.4 - (Rating = 4*)

Sunday, 05/26/2019 (961) ATLANTA vs. (962) ST LOUIS
Favoring: ATLANTA on the money line.
JULIO TEHERAN is 13-2 (+13.8 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TEHERAN 5.8, OPPONENT 3.3 - (Rating = 4*)

Sunday, 05/26/2019 (959) ARIZONA vs. (960) SAN FRANCISCO
Favoring: SAN FRANCISCO on the money line.
LUKE WEAVER is 0-6 (-9.7 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was WEAVER 1.2, OPPONENT 3.8 - (Rating = 2*)

Sunday, 05/26/2019 (951) MIAMI vs. (952) WASHINGTON
Favoring: MIAMI on the money line.
ERICK FEDDE is 0-8 (-10 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was FEDDE 3.9, OPPONENT 6.2 - (Rating = 2*)

Sunday, 05/26/2019 (951) MIAMI vs. (952) WASHINGTON
Favoring: MIAMI on the money line.
ERICK FEDDE is 0-8 (-10 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was FEDDE 3.9, OPPONENT 6.2 - (Rating = 2*)

Sunday, 05/26/2019 (957) CINCINNATI vs. (958) CHICAGO CUBS
Favoring: CINCINNATI against the spread.
TANNER ROARK is 29-7 (+20.2 Units) against the run line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
The average score was ROARK 4.5, OPPONENT 3.3 - (Rating = 2*)

Sunday, 05/26/2019 (955) PHILADELPHIA vs. (956) MILWAUKEE
Favoring: MILWAUKEE against the spread.
BRANDON WOODRUFF is 6-0 (+8.5 Units) against the run line in home games this season.
The average score was WOODRUFF 6.7, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 2*)

Sunday, 05/26/2019 (977) DETROIT vs. (978) NY METS
Favoring: DETROIT against the spread.
ZACK WHEELER is 4-23 (-20.6 Units) against the run line in home games in the first half of the season since 1997.
The average score was WHEELER 3.8, OPPONENT 5.8 - (Rating = 2*)

Sunday, 05/26/2019 (973) SEATTLE vs. (974) OAKLAND
Favoring: SEATTLE against the spread.
MIKE LEAKE is 20-3 (+16.5 Units) against the run line in road games in May games since 1997.
The average score was LEAKE 5, OPPONENT 3.3 - (Rating = 2*)

Sunday, 05/26/2019 (967) BOSTON vs. (968) HOUSTON
Favoring: Over on the total.
EDUARDO RODRIGUEZ is 9-0 OVER (+9.1 Units) when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season.
The average score was RODRIGUEZ 8, OPPONENT 4.8 - (Rating = 3*)

Sunday, 05/26/2019 (963) TAMPA BAY vs. (964) CLEVELAND
Favoring: Under on the total.
TREVOR BAUER is 17-4 UNDER (+12.5 Units) in day games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BAUER 3.8, OPPONENT 3.2 - (Rating = 2*)

Sunday, 05/26/2019 (967) BOSTON vs. (968) HOUSTON
Favoring: Over on the total.
EDUARDO RODRIGUEZ is 9-1 OVER (+8.1 Units) in all games this season.
The average score was RODRIGUEZ 7.8, OPPONENT 4.7 - (Rating = 2*

Sunday, 05/26/2019 (967) BOSTON vs. (968) HOUSTON
Favoring: Under on the total.
JUSTIN VERLANDER is 8-0 UNDER (+8.1 Units) vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season.
The average score was VERLANDER 4.2, OPPONENT 1.2 - (Rating = 2*)

Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, there are three pitchers who cost more than $10,000:

Justin Verlander (R) $11,700, HOU vs. BOS
Chris Paddack (R) $10,600, SD @ TOR
Trevor Bauer (R) $10,100, CLE vs. TB
Verlander has been dominant this season, averaging a +5.81 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 64% Consistency Rating to go along with his 3.45 xFIP and 32.5% strikeout rate. At the time of writing, Verlander and the Astros are -176 favorites while the Red Sox are implied for 3.5 runs, which is pretty solid considering the strength of their opponent.

Verlander carries a favorable 7.9 K Prediction, but he’ll be tested against this projected Red Sox lineup that has a low 22.1% strikeout rate and high .348 wOBA, including the 10th-ranked offense in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against righties this season. Given the high price and difficult matchup, paying down at pitcher may be the ideal roster construction to get to some of the elite bats.

Paddack has an intriguing matchup against a projected Blue Jays lineup with a 29.9% strikeout rate and .270 wOBA. However, he’s not the best value with his -3.19 Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel. He’s intriguing for tournaments with his 28.7% strikeout rate against a team with a high strikeout rate and one that has struggled to generate runs against right-handed pitchers this season, ranking 28th in wRC+.

Bauer has struggled over his last two starts, allowing 11 earned runs while striking out five or fewer hitters in each start. He owns a solid 8.4 K Prediction, but given the dynamics of the slate, I’d prefer to pay down from this tier, unless you’re looking to be contrarian in tournaments.

While Bauer projects well in our Models, he carries some risk against an offense that owns a top-seven offense in team ISO and wRC+ against righties this season.

On FanDuel, there are three pitchers who cost more than $10,000:

Justin Verlander (R) $11,700, HOU vs. BOS
Chris Paddack (R) $10,600, SD @ TOR
Trevor Bauer (R) $10,100, CLE vs. TB
Verlander has been dominant this season, averaging a +5.81 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 64% Consistency Rating to go along with his 3.45 xFIP and 32.5% strikeout rate. At the time of writing, Verlander and the Astros are -176 favorites while the Red Sox are implied for 3.5 runs, which is pretty solid considering the strength of their opponent.

Verlander carries a favorable 7.9 K Prediction, but he’ll be tested against this projected Red Sox lineup that has a low 22.1% strikeout rate and high .348 wOBA, including the 10th-ranked offense in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against righties this season. Given the high price and difficult matchup, paying down at pitcher may be the ideal roster construction to get to some of the elite bats.

Paddack has an intriguing matchup against a projected Blue Jays lineup with a 29.9% strikeout rate and .270 wOBA. However, he’s not the best value with his -3.19 Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel. He’s intriguing for tournaments with his 28.7% strikeout rate against a team with a high strikeout rate and one that has struggled to generate runs against right-handed pitchers this season, ranking 28th in wRC+.

Bauer has struggled over his last two starts, allowing 11 earned runs while striking out five or fewer hitters in each start. He owns a solid 8.4 K Prediction, but given the dynamics of the slate, I’d prefer to pay down from this tier, unless you’re looking to be contrarian in tournaments.

While Bauer projects well in our Models, he carries some risk against an offense that owns a top-seven offense in team ISO and wRC+ against righties this season.

Values
Zack Wheeler is more of a value on DraftKings with his 88% Bargain Rating, but he’s my also preferred cash-game option on FanDuel, where he has the second-best Projected Plus/Minus. Wheeler leads the slate with an 8.7 K Prediction against a projected Tigers lineup that has a massive 32.1% strikeout rate and .260 wOBA, along with ranking 29th in wRC+.

Overall, the Tigers are implied for just 3.4 runs while the Mets are sizeable -180 favorites.

Jake Odorizzi is also a better value on DraftKings with his 77% Bargain Rating, but he’s still in play on FanDuel as a mid-range play. The projected White Sox lineup has a 34% strikeout rate with a mediocre .270 wOBA. His 7.9 K Prediction is one of the higher marks on the slate and the Twins are massive -236 favorites.

Rostering Wheeler and Odorizzi together on DraftKings could allow for some nice flexibility with your hitters.

Since 5/1 your BA - xBA leaderboard Fantasy Baseball

1- J Smoak -.141
2- M Ozuna -.081
3- N Markakis -.066
4- J Martinez -.066
5- R Acuña-.063
6- N Goodrum -.061
7- S Castro -.059
8- K Schwarber -.059
9- D Fletcher -.058
10- B Anderson -.054

Since 5/1 SLG - xSLG leaderboard Fantasy Baseball

1- J Smoak -.220
2- J Martinez -.212
3- R Acuña-.184
4- N Goodrum-.132
5- S Castro -.129
6- M Ozuna -.128
7- J Votto -.111
8- D Swanson -.102
9- Y Puig -.093
10- J.D. Martinez -.087

UNDER 5 Strikeouts for Jose Quintana -114: He's gone under 5 in 4 of his L5 starts + CIN has the 6th lowest K% vs LHP this month.

Pirates SP Chris Archer
The Pick: Under 5.5 strikeouts (+120)

With +120 odds, the under is extremely enticing on this prop, especially considering how mediocre Archer has been this season.

Through seven starts, he’s pitching to a 5.08 xFIP with a weak 12.1% K-BB%. And over his past four starts, he’s failed to strike out more than five hitters.

Twins are a 75% favorite in the first half today, as Jake Odorizzi has pitched to a 2.38 ERA and a 3.25 FIP over his first 10 starts in 2019.

Odorizzi made one small tweak to his arsenal this year, increasing his curveball usage from 5.4% (both career and in 2018) to 13% in 2019

His strikeout minus walk rate (15.6%) is the highest that it’s been since 2014 with the Rays when Odorizzi was a true-talent sub-4.00 ERA pitcher.

Although his preseason projections suggested an ERA of about 4.30 (4.17 career FIP, 4.49 ERA in 2018), Odorizzi currently sports a 2.38 ERA thanks to allowing just 0.68 home runs per nine innings (career 1.22) on a 6.2% home run to flyball rate (career 10.4%) with a .244 BABIP (.271 career) while stranding 81.7% of baserunners (74.7% career).

Regression is coming for Odorizzi, but there are also signs that he can maintain a sub-4.00 ERA in his remaining 2019 outings.

Also, he will face Dylan Covey, a pitcher with nearly three times the number of walks (17) as strikeouts (6) on the season in over 20 innings pitched.

Oakland is looking for a three-game sweep today in Seattle against a Mariners team that is 5-17 with a -56 run differential in May (average margin of -2.54 runs). The A’s are 13-7 in May with a +41 run differential (average margin of +2.05 runs).

Mike Leake also sports a .377 wOBA and .376 xwOBA in 2019, suggesting an expected ERA north of 6.25.

The Dodgers make for a solid play because Chris Archer is showing a velocity decline in 2019. His fastball is down exactly 2.0 mph over last season (95.3 mph to 93.3 mph), while his sinker (-1.4 mph), slider (-0.7 mph) and changeup (-0.5 mph) have each also seen velocity drops.

Archer’s strikeout minus walk rate (12.1%) is over 5.5% below his career average and back to his 2013-2014 levels with Tampa Bay. His FIP (5.17) and xFIP (5.09) confirm the validity of his 5.55 ERA, as does his .351 xwOBA, which equates to an expected ERA of 5.51.