let's get a jump start on the weekend & keep rolling
GL

Man City getting hit hard this morning, along with the over
GL

draw plays on both brazil c.p. matches

Bet splits are as expected:

Man City (-130) 60%
Arsenal (+345) 25%
Draw (+320) 15%

Remember - MLS starts this weekend. Lots of action.

Houston, you were fine tuned into this league last year.Do you have any sleeper teams we should watch for value early on? I am seeing a lot of juicy underdogs this weekend.

this should drop during the day , as we have some reverse going on here

SOC [203226] TOTAL u3-114 (BORDEAUX vrs AS MONACO)

YTD
39-24-34 +27.61

split yesterday for plus money.

s africa premier league today ... playing all 3 matches to draw.

this league is over 37% draw

Keep the draws coming Friday

M'gladbach/Bremen +265
Monaco/Bordeaux +315

SOC [203226] TOTAL u3-114 (BORDEAUX vrs AS MONACO)..........P

YTD
39-24-5 +27.61

M'gladbach/Bremen +265......W
Monaco/Bordeaux +315.........L

Week 29 in the Premier League is headlined by Chelsea-Manchester City, but the relegation battle at the bottom of the table is worth keeping an eye on. After small gains (+0.10 units) with last week’s value plays, I’ve picked out three for this week with a potential for big payouts.

Here’s a look at the most recent results, season trends, biggest payouts, title odds and relegation odds, along with three value plays and market analysis for Week 29.
Week 28 Results:
Home 4 of 10 (-1.89 units)
Away 3 of 10 (-1.91 units)
Draw 3 of 10 (+0.68 units)

Road teams fared a little bit better in Week 28, but still not profitable. Draws had modest gains and keep on adding to their season tally.

Season Results:
Home 127 of 280 (+10.32 units)
Away 76 of 280 (-57.54 units)
Draw 77 of 280 (+25.02 units)

It’s hard to believe how poor road teams have been this season, as they’re now down 57.54 units.

Season’s Biggest Payouts:
Burnley (+1125) at Chelsea in Week 1
Swansea (+1078) vs. Liverpool in Week 24
Bournemouth (+911) at Chelsea in Week 25
Huddersfield (+875) vs. Man Utd in Week 9
Crystal Palace (+695) vs. Chelsea in Week 8

Five of the top 9 Premier League payouts have been outright wins against Chelsea: Burnley +1125, Bournemouth +911, Crystal Palace +695, West Ham +655, Watford +595.

Fading Chelsea on the moneyline this year has now gone 7-21 for +22.10 units earned.

Title Odds via 5Dimes:
Manchester City -20000 (75 points)
Manchester United +15000 (59 points)
Liverpool +20000 (57 points)
Tottenham +50000 (55 points)
Chelsea +100000 (53 points)

Season Point Totals:
Teams that have gone Over their Season Point Total
Huddersfield (28.5)
Burnley (35.5)

Teams close to sealing the Under
West Brom (42.5)
Southampton (54.5)
Arsenal (70.5)

West Brom are still stuck in the cellar of the Premier League, and that won’t change even with a couple victories in a row. Before the season, they were offered at +600 to be relegated, but are now huge favorites at -850. Swansea’s loss at Brighton last weekend was significant, as it puts them right back into the relegation zone after a strong run of performances.

Everton at Burnley (Saturday 7:30 a.m. ET)
Moneyline odds: Burnley +150, Everton +235, Draw +210

The first value play comes in the first match of the weekend and Burnley and Everton are two of the tougher teams to figure out in the EPL. Burnley sit on 37 points in 7th place but have scored just 22 goals this season (failing to score in 11 matches). Their defense has kept them in nearly every contest, keeping a clean sheet 10 times (25 goals overall), but the metrics say this club is exceeding expectations.

Everton could equal Burnley’s season point total with a victory this weekend, but they’ve struggled defensively conceding 47 goals, and also don’t score as often as they should (just over 1 per game). It’s always hard to trust Everton to come out with a victory, and the betting public is a bit heavy on them as well. Saturday’s matchup features a low total of just 2 goals, so you can guess where I’m looking: the draw. With the public heavy on both the home (56%) and road (32%) sides and a low total of just 2 goals, you know where I’m going: Draw +210.

Stoke City at Southampton (Saturday 10 a.m. ET)
Moneyline odds: Southampton -140, Stoke +450, Draw +275

This is a match where you could take the “buy-low” angle on both clubs. Southampton are the second-worst at home this season while Stoke are tied for the worst on the road. Only one point separates the two clubs but there’s a big disparity in the odds, and I’m not really buying into it. The public, however, seems to love the home side as more than 90% of bettors at both Bookmaker and Sportsbook are taking Southampton to win. This is a great spot to fade the home favorite and grab a really good price of +450 on Stoke City.

Manchester United at Crystal Palace (Monday 2:45 p.m. ET)
Moneyline odds: Crystal Palace +600, Man Utd -180, Draw +310
The last value play of the week involves Monday’s encounter between Crystal Palace and Manchester United. The Red Devils are coming off a 2-1 comeback victory at home over Chelsea, a result that has led a flurry of bettors to bet on United (>85% of bets), though that’s basically par for the course. Public bettors love to flock to clubs like Manchester United as big favorites, and they’ll likely be a part of many parlays.

If you don’t follow EPL, that may sound too specific or backfitted, but makes sense when looking at the routine schedule— the Monday matches are the last ones of the matchweek, and home teams benefit from the weekend at home and prolonged rest. How profitable have these Monday home dogs been? In 40 matches since 2012, the home dog has won 12 times for +27.15 units earned overall. Sometimes these “situational” spots come naturally in sports, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Crystal Palace pull off the home shocker at +600 odds over United.

Most Lopsided Moneyline Tickets Around the Market
86% on Southampton (-140) vs. Stoke
85% on Arsenal (-101) at Brighton
70% on Swansea (+161) vs. West Ham

Biggest Line Moves Since Opening
Brighton (+447 to +298) vs. Arsenal
West Ham (+231 to +208) at Swansea
Burnley (+173 to +150) vs. Everton

once again Leicester City getting hammered this morning
GL

AC Milan vs. Inter Milan stats: What you need to know

Time: Saturday March 4, 19:45 GMT kickoff

Venue: San Siro Stadium

Team news

AC Milan: Milan can field a full squad other than long term absentee Andrea Conti (injury).

Inter Milan: No major absentees

Inform your AC Milan vs. Inter Milan prediction
The San Siro hosts the 220th Derby della Madonnina as Inter Milan play an away game in familiar surroundings.

After a poor start to the season AC Milan are in the better form of the two sides and without a defeat in eight league matches. Inter have experienced almost the reverse in terms of performance over the course of a season after starting strongly before fading away from Scudetto contention.

AC were 18 points behind just 11 matches ago but can close to within four points of Inter with a win on Saturday.

The form of the two sides is perhaps best reflected by the recent performances of their strikers. AC Milan invested heavily in Nikola Kalinic and Andre Silva in the summer but it is youth product Patrick Cutrone who has provided the goals in recent matches.

Cutrone has scored in each of his last four Serie A appearances as well as performing well in the Europa League.

Inter’s main man in attack is Mauro Icardi. The Argentine striker scored 16 in his first 15 Serie A starts but he has found goals harder to come by as Inter’s promising early season form faded. Icardi has scored just once in five Serie A matches.

Milan’s defence is also much improved from the start of the season. Leonardo Bonuccci and Gianluigi Donnarumma lead a backline that is finally performing to its undoubted ability. AC have conceded just two goals in their last five matches so Icardi might find his goalscoring chances limited.

AC Milan vs. Inter Milan: Where is the value?
The match is a tough one to call, especially since home advantage may be reduced at a shared stadium.

A home win is marginally considered to be the most likely result but also has an implied chance of less than 50% of occurring. Given AC Milan’s superior performances of late Internazionale will need to recapture some of their early season form to have a chance of winning.

Betting on the AC Milan +0.0 handicap at 1.724* will cover bettors in the event of a draw whilst offering value if Milan continue to play impressively.

Inter have only kept one clean sheet in their last seven league matches and that was against bottom of the table strugglers Benevento. AC have scored in each of their last eight games and successfully breached Roma’s strong defence twice last time out.

Milan have a poor scoring record at home but are now a much improved team from the one we saw earlier in the season. AC Milan to score over 1.25 goals in the match is available at 2.110* and could prove to be a sensible bet should both sides continue their recent form.

i'll take this one now as the DRAW is getting hit hard at this moment

SOC [200126] TOTAL u2½-114 (STOKE CITY vrs SOUTHAMPTON)

YTD
39-24-5 +27.61