Bundesliga results since returning

18 road wins (+10.85 units)
8 home wins (-21.1 u)
10 draws (+4.8 u)

3.19 goals per match
Home teams shut out 13 times
Away teams scored first 24 times

Thanks Mike -hope all is well with you and your family 👍

The stakes are pretty high for Friday’s showdown between Borussia Monchengladbach and Freiburg.

Borussia Monchengladbach comes into the weekend tied with Bayer Leverkusen for fourth place (the final Champions League spot) but Gladbach is ahead on goal differential.

Freiburg needs a win to close the gap on seventh-place Hoffenheim, who are four points ahead of Breisgau-Brasilianer for the final Europa League spot.

Freiburg
In my opinion, Freiburg is the most overrated team in the Bundesliga. Breisgau-Brasilianer’s -3 goal differential makes them out to be a mediocre team but their -17.13 expected goal differential tells us they really deserve to be lower in the table.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Freiburg seems destined to regress and they are trending that way as they’ve only earned six points, out of a possible 24, in their last eight matches.

Freiburg has switched to a 4-4-2 formation –the most beloved and controversial formation in all of football — in their last three matches. The biggest benefit of the 4-4-2 is it is simple and provides clear roles for the players.

When the opponent has possession, you can sit eight men behind the ball and cover the entire field. However, the 4-4-2 can only be successful when the two strikers understand one another and can play as a cohesive unit. Unfortunately that doesn’t seem to be the case for Freiburg, who have a -5.94 xG differential and are only generating 0.90 xG per 90 in the 557 minutes when they are in the 4-4-2.

Borussia Monchengladbach
Borussia Monchengladbach found their for in a 4-1 thrashing of Union Berlin last time out. Die Fohlen’s scoring duo of Alessane Plea and Marcus Thuram combined for two goals and two assists in that match and they have developed into one of the best attacking duos in the Bundesliga.

Gladbach have been in really good form on the road their last five matches, earning 11 of a possible 15 points with a +3.87 expected goal differential in that span.

Die Fohlen’s 4-2-3-1 formation (+11.35 xG) provides a lot of flexibility and allows them to use their speed to make runs in the channels to get behind the defense. Therefore, I don’t think they will have a problem getting behind a shaky Freiburg defense which concedes 1.86 xG per 90 minutes out of the 4-4-2 formation.

Previous Meeting
Gladbach won the reverse fixture in December, 4-2, at Borussia Park. Die Fohlen dominated the match outshooting Freiburg, 23-12, with 17 of their shots coming inside the 18-yard box. Additionally, the expected goals report backed up Die Fohlen’s domination and indicates the scoreline could have been bigger.

Freiburg v Borussia Monchengladbach | Friday 5th June 2020

Borussia Monchengladbach’s pursuit of a top four finish is progressing nicely but Marco Rose will know that his team an ill afford to slip up against out-of-form Freiburg on Friday evening.

A win in matchday 30’s opener will put pressure on their rivals Bayer Leverkusen and RB Leipzig heading into their own weekend fixtures and should Gladbach play with the same tempo that they displayed in their most recent success, they should have too much for the home team here.

Rose is likely to stick to the 4-2-3-1 that served the team so well against Union Berlin with the confidence brimming through the side as they dispatched the capital club with relative ease.

To ensure a Champions League spot for next season however, Gladbach’s away form needs to bring itself more in line with how impressive they are on their home turf although, results for travelling teams since the restart and regular behind closed doors games have been above average which holds Die Fohlen in good stead.

Freiburg’s record against the teams currently occupying a top five place is not a healthy one – just one win in eight matches. Although the group are always competitive, structured and they work very hard for each other, the strong home record they had at the beginning of the season has petered out more recently and they have now lost five of their last seven at Schwarzwald-Stadion.

Eintracht Frankfurt v Mainz | Saturday 6th June 2020

Consecutive away wins for Eintracht Frankfurt have seen them pull away from the drop zone. And this looks a brilliant chance to make it three on the bounce against a Mainz side who haven’t won in five.

Adi Hütter made just one change for Wednesday’s trip to Bremen with Almamy Toure coming in at right wing-back. But it was substitute Stefan Ilsanker was the man of the moment. He scored 14 seconds after coming off the bench and added his second eight minutes later to take his Bundesliga goals tally to two.

Mainz are treading water with their heads just above the water. They sit a point above the relegation play-off spot. They are winless in five with just two points collected since the return but have been picked up in away games.

Achim Beierlorzer’s side are in a desperate need of a win, but they are struggling to create that many clear cut chances. Ridle Baku is one man that has caught the eye down their right side, but he’s banned for this trip.

Die Nullfunfer have scored 22 goals in 14 away games, but they’re outperforming their Expected Goals (xG) creating just 18.15xG on their travels. Having racked up a few games under 1xG, then it’s very likely to come back to haunt them.

Kostic to unlock Mainz defence
One of Frankfurt’s key men is Filip Kostic. He’s chipped in with 10 assists so far this season making him just one of eight players to have reached double figures. He added to his tally in Wednesday’s win with a pinpoint cross finding Andre Silva. And that was just one of 16 crosses he attempted against Werder Bremen.

The Serbian is a key cog in this Frankfurt side and he does rack the crosses up. However, looking at Ladbrokes’ Bet Builder feature, the bar is already set at 14+ crosses (17/20), which isn’t something I’d consider although he will be on corner duty.

Given his role in the team, it could be worth looking at the Mainz right-back for tackles and a card. But with Baku suspended, that’s still a bit of an unknown. The Bundesliga site names Daniel Brosinski as the most likely to come into the side, but there’s a chance Ronael Pierre-Gabriel will get the nod.

From a betting perspective, the latter would be a better option too. He’s made five appearances in 2020 and completed 15 tackles across those 337 minutes, so if he does start then he’s one for the tackles market.

Silva to continue to shine
The AC Milan loanee is flying with four goals in five games taking him to eight in the Bundesliga. He can be quiet in games but always seems to pop up in space and elude the opposition defence.

He’s averaging 2.1 shots per game, and given this Mainz defence have only kept one away clean sheet, then he’s likely to keep this hot streak going. The in-form forward is worth a look in the goalscorer markets. You can get 6/4 on him to score anytime and 6/1 (William Hill) for him to open the scoring, which he’s done in the last two games.

With Frankfurt’s upturn in form and Mainz barren spell combining the two will appeal to some, so Silva to score in a home win at 5/1 with Bet365.

Bayer Leverkusen v Bayern Munich | Saturday 6th June 2020

Arguably the game of the weekend kicks off at 9;30pm on Saturday between Champions League chasing Bayer Leverkusen and prospective champions Bayern Munich. It’s fair to say that both sides have had an excellent second half of the season. Leverkusen have won 11 of their last 14 Bundesliga games whereas Bayern have picked up 43 points from a possible 45 since mid-December.

Under former Ajax manager Peter Bosz, Leverkusen have approached games with a focus on dominating the ball rather than a counter attacking approach, they’re very much the instigators of play in that regard.

I think playing that way can put their opponents at a psychological disadvantage, mentally it can be tough to concentrate for a full 90 minutes against a side that keep the ball. That’s unlikely to be the case here though as the only team that boasts a larger possession percentage is their opponents, Bayern.

Leverkusen look to be in a straight shootout with Borussia Monchengladbach and RB Leipzig for the top 4 with only two of them able to make it. With Gladbcah still to face Bayern I’d imagine Die Werkself being happy for a point on Saturday.

Incredibly, they actually won the reverse fixture at the Allianz despite being outshot 23-11 and having ten men for the last 15 minutes. Lukas Hradecky had an inspired performance in goal and may have to again if he’s to keep out the red hot Bavarians.

Enormous credit has to go to Hansi Flick for his impact since taking charge of FC Hollywood. He’s brought back the ruthless and clinical attacking on the ball as well as the relentless pressing off the ball which makes it so difficult for teams to deal with.

Because they press high up the pitch and tend to win the ball back when they lose it, their defence is rarely troubled and Manuel Neuer is a spectator. Leverkusen may provide a few more problems with the attacking array of talent, mind.

The betting angles
The bookmakers are expecting an enthralling, goal-filled game here with the goal line set high at 3.5 and favouring the overs still. I’m of the thinking Under 3.5 Goals at odds-against looks a fantastic price. True, if you take the averages of both teams it’s understandable, but if you look deeper into Bayern’s games against the top 6 they’re much more reserved than the times they pummel the lesser lights 5-0 every other week.

They’ve played a total of seven games against the fellow top six and only one of those saw four or more goals which was a 4-0 win at home to Dortmund earlier in the season. Four of those six also saw Under 2.5 Goals land so we could see fewer goals than expected.

Leverkusen themselves were pretty disappointing last week in their narrow win at Freiburg where they only attempted a feeble seven shots in that game. With the stakes being big for both sides I’m more than happy to take odds-against on fewer than four goals at the BayArena.

There’s no question about this weekend’s Bundesliga headliner.

Bayern Munich, well on their way to an eighth consecutive league title, will head to BayArena to take on fifth-place Bayer Leverkusen, who are battling with Borussia Monchengladbach for the fourth and final Champions League spot.

Bayer Leverkusen
Outside of a home loss to Wolfsburg, Die Werkself have been on fire during the second half of the season. Over their past 13 matches, Leverkusen have earned 31 of a possible 39 points, creating 26.32 expected goals in the process. Kai Havertz has been the man in form for Die Werkself, with five goals since the Bundesliga returned. He will without a doubt be a problem for Bayern Munich’s defense.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Matches involving Bayer Leverkusen average 3.44 expected goals, so you can usually count on some fireworks when Peter Bosz’s side is in action.

Die Werkself have found a lot of success utilizing a 4-2-3-1 formation, averaging 2.22 xGF per 90 minutes when they line up in that fashion. Leverkusen are a team that tries to outscore you because their high-risk style leaves their defense exposed, as evidenced by their 1.44 xGA per 90 in the 4-2-3-1

Bayern Munich
The Bavarians have been dominant since the Bundesliga returned to play last month. Bayern Munich have won all four matches and boast a +11 goal differential in that span.

Bayern’s run of dominance really goes back to early November when Hans Flick took over for Niko Kovac. Flick has completely revamped Bayern Munich and switching the Bavarians to a 4-2-3-1 has been a stroke of genius. Bayern generates 2.94 xGF and only allows 0.98 xGA per 90 minutes in their preferred lineup.

Based on those numbers its easy to see why 62% of Bayern matches go over 3.5 goals.

Previous Meeting
Leverkusen pulled off the upset in the reverse fixture at the Allianz Arena 2-1 back in November. The expected goals report shows that Bayern Munich should have won the game, and, as you can see from the highlights, Bayern Munich had numerous chances to draw level and potentially win the game.

Saturday morning’s tilt between second-place RB Leipzig and last-place SC Paderborn is the biggest mismatch on the oddsboard this weekend. When you convert the above odds to implied probability, this is what you get:

RB Leipzig: 83.7%
Draw: 10.4%
Paderborn: 5.9%
I always like to start my handicapping process by trying to make a case for the underdog, especially in matches with lopsided odds, but it’s pretty difficult to find a path to success for Paderborn against the second-best team in the Bundesliga.

The one thing that Paderborn can benefit from is RB Leipzig’s chaotic form since the Bundesliga returned to action. A total of 17 goals have been scored in Leipzig’s last four matches and Die Roten Bullen made things difficult on themselves in a wild 4-2 victory over Koln on Monday.

Despite their recent volatility, RB Leipzig’s overall statistical profile remains incredibly impressive, especially on defense where they lead the Bundesliga in expected goals against.

Paderborn’s portfolio pales in comparison.

Anything less than three points would be a disaster for Leipzig. Die Roten Bullen have been terrific this season but their two-point lead over fifth-place Bayer Leverkusen is fragile and means they are still not guaranteed a Champions League spot for 2020-21.

Paderborn, on the other hand, are destined for relegation and their performance against Dortmund in a 6-1 defeat last time out makes you wonder if Steffen Baumgart’s side has thrown in the proverbial towel on this season. Trying to figure out a team’s motivation is nearly impossible, but if you had to give a “motivational edge” to one side it would be to RB Leipzig, who don’t need any more advantages in this match.

There’s no value backing Leipzig on the moneyline and tossing them into a parlay seems ill-advised since it won’t add much value to your bet, so you may be better off going into other markets if you’re looking for action on this match.

If you’re looking to bet the Over 3.5, I’d consider backing RB Leipzig to go over their team total at the same number. Paderborn has one of the league’s weakest attacks and they’re going up against Germany’s best defensive side, so if you’re taking an over, you’re really leaning on Leipzig to do the heavy lifting. And since the game total is juiced at -155 for Over 3.5, why not take +123 on RB Leipzig to get there by themselves?

In the end, this match feels like a blowout and that’s the way I’ll be playing it. The odds tell you that a multi-goal victory by Leipzig is the most likely result and thus, I see some value on Leipzig to cover the -3.5 alternate spread at +215.

Four-goal victories aren’t easy to come by in soccer but the gap between these two teams in large enough where it’s not that hard to envision this game devolving into a romp for RB Leipzig.

The Bundesliga title race appears to be over. Bayern Munich are showing their quality more in each passing week and the chasing pack just cannot keep up with the Bavarians.

Dortmund appeared to be the best candidate to topple FC Hollywood and show their quality consistently but when push came to shove, Bayern were too strong. Leipzig, Gladbach and Leverkusen are all great to watch with extremely talented coaches, but in reality, they just do not possess the quality to keep up with the perennial champions.

At the bottom end, Werder Bremen's first-half against Frankfurt was promising on Wednesday and they looked to be gaining confidence throughout the match. However, a second-half collapse resulted in Frankfurt winning 3-0. This is quite ominous for Bremen as even when they look to be playing well they still manage to fall to an emphatic defeat.

Dusseldorf currently sit in the relegation play-off place and have dragged Mainz down to within a point of them. Paderborn, however, will go down knowing that if they could convert the many chances they create they would have had more of a chance of survival.

Bayern Munich have managed just W2-D2-L3 when travelling to top-five teams in the Bundesliga since the start of last season, winning once by 2+ goals.

Hertha Berlin at Borussia Dortmund

12:30 p.m. ET, FS1

Borussia Dortmund enters this weekend seven points behind Bayern Munich with just five matches to play. While catching them is highly improbable, Dortmund will look to extend its gap over third-place RB Leipzig and secure second place as Hertha Berlin visit on Saturday.

Few teams have played better than Hertha since the return, as the Old Lady has won three of four matches and outplayed Leipzig in a 2-2 draw last week.

In those four matches, Hertha has scored 11 goals and conceded two, and outplayed its opponents on expected goals 6.8-4.4.

Hertha’s dominance has been particularly impressive in the second halves of its last four matches, where Berlin has outscored opponents, 9-1. This second half surge isn’t a departure from season-long trends, where Hertha has scored 30 second-half goals to 13 in the first half.

While the second half tends to be higher scoring, this difference is stark. Hertha has shown an ability to pile up goals in a hurry against Hoffenheim and Union, scoring three and four second half goals, respectively.

On the other side, Dortmund have also reserved the overwhelming majority of their scoring to the second half. While they did nab three in the opening half against lowly Schalke, Dortmund have scored one and conceded one in the first 45 minutes of its last three games combined. BVB’s six-goal, second-half explosion against bottom of the table Paderborn showed their attacking potential when the game opened up. Over the course of the season, Dortmund have 54 second-half goals to 26 in the opening frame.

Playing without star striker Erling Haaland against Paderborn, Dortmund took more time to break through and find its first goal, and he will miss Saturday’s match as well.

Defensively, BVB has improved dramatically, conceding three goals in its last eight Bundesliga matches. While they are known for their free-flowing and (remarkly overperforming the metrics) offense, Dortmund’s sturdy defense has propelled them ahead of Leipzig and into second. I’ll bet on that sturdy defense to keep Hertha off the board for at least 45 minutes.

I want no part of betting the full-game under when all evidence suggests that this game could break wide open in the second 45, with two teams playing with nothing to lose throwing numbers forward.

Sunday morning’s matchup between 10th-place Schalke and 14th-place Union Berlin features the two worst teams in the Bundesliga based on current form.

In eight combined matches since the league returned, Schalke and Union have combined for exactly one point. Schalke have lost four in a row, while Berlin picked up a draw against Mainz, surrounded by three uncompetitive losses by multiple goals.

Defensive issues aside, it’s been goal-scoring that has been the predominant issue for both sides. Bundesliga newcomers Union Berlin have slid down to 16th in expected goals for this year, while Schalke sit 17th. Both average barely more than 1.0 xGF per game.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Union have scored just two goals in its last four matches and created just 2.2 xG. Entering Sunday, Union is three points clear of Dusseldorf for 16th, so any point would be crucial entering the final four matches as they try to avoid being relegated straight back to the German second division.

After a promising start to the season, Schalke have lacked continuity, energy and form since returning from the two month layoff. There are rumors circulating that manager David Wagner has lost the locker room, and the results on the pitch indicate that may be true.

Schalke have scored one goal in four matches, failed to generate more than 0.8 xG in any of those games, and have been outplayed by bottom six teams Werder Bremen, Dusseldorf and Augsburg.

While Schalke’s defense has struggled of late, conceding four to Dortmund, two to Dusseldorf and three to Augsburg, their season-long numbers are above average.

Schalke rank seventh with 41.8 xGA and have defended corners well, which is a major Union strength in attack, as Die Eisernen have scored eight goals off corners this season. Schalke’s ability to keep Union off the board, while also being inept in attack themselves makes for a low-scoring battle.

Both teams are in such bad form that I can’t reasonably bet on either of them to come out with a win here. When Schalke has trailed this season, they have scored five goals while conceding the next goal 19 times. For Union, that gap is seven for and 21 against. Neither team is good at playing from behind

Bremen have W1-D3-L10 at their Weserstadion base this season and are winless here since September (W0-D3-L9).

The hosts have failed to score in 7 of their last 8 home outings.

Werder Bremen v Wolfsburg | Sunday 7th June 2020

Sunday kicks-off with a big game between Werder Bremen and Wolfsburg who are fighting for survival and Europe respectively. Bremen had taken seven points from a possible nine before their midweek defeat to Frankfurt but in all honesty they were lucky to do so. Their two wins in that run came against the massively overachieving duo of Freiburg and Schalke and both by a single goal to nil.

Bremen deserve to be down there too, as in the final third they’ve been extremely disappointing from a creative perspective. They’ve often failed to create 1+ Expected Goal (xG) and their constant swapping of frontmen doesn’t help their case.

You also have to question how much that midweek game took out of Werder – Wolfsburg have had the whole week to prepare whereas Bremen looked jaded in the second half on Wednesday after employing an energetic press in the first half against Die Adler.

Florian Kohfeldt would’ve been left bewildered once again at his teams sheer ineptitude when it comes to defending set-pieces. The Riversiders have now conceded a massive 18 goals from set-piece situations now and they simply fail to follower their runners, it’s embarrassing really and that could really cost them against a tall and physical Die Wolfe outfit.

Bremen's set-piece weakness
That brings me onto one of my favourite selections of the game which is Wolfsburg’s 6ft4 American centre-half John Brooks to attempt a shot in the game which is priced at 13/10 with Coral on their BuildYourBet feature.

Brooks will be one of the tallest players on the pitch and a key target from Maxi Arnold’s deliveries. Looking into the stats Brooks has managed to have a shot in five of his last seven games and 10 of his last 16 so I’m surprised we can get odds against here. He’s also a bulbous 18/1 to score anytime with Betfair and I couldn’t put anyone off a small go on him or fellow centre half Mario Pongracic (14/1) given how suspect the hosts are from dead balls.

Looking at the more general markets I think Wolfsburg are a decent enough price at odds-against. Considering the extra few days preparation under the excellent Oliver Glasner they should have enough to get past this toothless Bremen side.

SUNDAY'S BEST BACKED

1. Wolfsburg
2. FC Copenhagen
3. Stuttgart
4. Koln
5. Legia Warsaw

Werder Bremen vs. Wolfsburg

7:30 a.m. ET, FS1

The streak continues for Werder Bremen after their mid-week loss to Frankfurt. Die Werderaner hasn’t won a game at home in 275 days, with only one win at the Weser Stadium this season.

Weder Bremen is three points below Fortuna Dusseldorf for the relegation playoff spot and can’t afford to drop any more points. However, things have not gone well for Die Werderaner when they face the top of the table.

Against the top six teams in the league, Werder Bremen have only managed to earn six of a possible 30 points. They’ve been dominated in those 10 matchups, shown by a -14.37 expected goal differential.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

One the main reason’s Werder Bremen have struggled this season is creating chances. Since the Bundesliga returned to play, Die Werdernaner have only created one big chance (35% probability or higher) in five matches.

This has been the case for Werder Bremen all season long as they have a Bundesliga worst 1.01 xGF per game. It will be tough sledding for Die Werdernaner to get a result going up against one of the best defensive teams in the Bundesliga.

Wolfsburg have been up and down since the Bundesliga returned winning twice on the road, but losing twice at home. Die Wölfe have been on fire away from Volkswagen Arena over their last five matches earning 10 of a possible 12 points and accumulating 11.35 xGF in the process.

Wolfsburg is one of the best defensive teams in the Bundesliga ranking third in xGA. Additionally, they’ve only allowed 27 big scoring chances from non-penalty situations, which is the lowest in the Bundesliga.

Werder Bremen’s inept offense will no doubt have a difficult time creating high quality chances against Wolfsburg’s stellar defense.

Schalke at Union Berlin

9:30 a.m. ET, FS1

Talk about two teams in terrible form.

Schalke, currently in 10th place in the standings, have lost six of their last seven Bundesliga matches and are winless in their last 11 league tilts. The club’s last win came back on January 17 against Borussia Monchengladbach.

On the other side, Union Berlin has been no better, going winless in their last six matches and compiling a record of 3-9-3 record over the course of their last 15 games. Combined, Schalke and Union Berlin are 0-9-3 in their last 12 matches.

Offensively, these are two of the worst teams in the league when it comes to finding the back of the net. Schalke is 17th out of 18 clubs in expected goals (31.74) this season and has been shut out in six of its last eight league contests. Union Berlin has been only slightly better in the statistical category, sitting in 14th place with 35.03 expected goals.

I can’t see much happening for either side in each other’s defensive thirds, so I am backing the total going under the number as my top play. The total has been under 2.5 goals in eight of Union Berlin’s last 10 home contests, which gives me even more confidence about this selection.

If you’re looking for an outright play, put a little on the draw

Augsburg vs. Koln

12 p.m. ET, FS1

Two below-average teams with not all that much to play for will bring Matchweek 30 of the Bundesliga to a close on Sunday afternoon.

In their eight combined matches since Germany’s top division resumed play, FC Koln and Augsburg have one win, four losses and three draws. It’s not like they’ve played the cream of the crop either, with just one of those eight matches coming against top-five opposition.

It was predictable that Koln and Augsburg — two teams basically stuck in no man’s land in the middle of the table — would come out of the gates flat. That being said, Koln vs. Augsburg is an island game and is being broadcast on FS1, so there should be a decent handle for a match that would have flown under the radar in different circumstances.

Only three points separate 12th-place Koln from 13th-place Augsburg and their statistical profiles are also pretty similar

It’s no surprise that the market is making this match out to be a relative toss up. When you convert the above odds to implied probability, this is what you get:

Koln: 38.8%
Draw: 26.9%
Augsburg: 34.3%
While I don’t think there’s that much value on the three-way moneyline, I do think the over/under is worth exploring. Considering that this match will be played in a low-pressure environment, neither team really has anything to gain or lose this season, I think it could be a free-flowing contest.

There is the chance that the two sides mail it in and play out a snoozefest, but neither of these teams are defensive stalwarts so I’m fine taking a chance on this match featuring some crooked numbers.

Even though there have only been eight total goals scored in Augsburg’s four matches since the break, Koln’s last four games have featured 18 total goals and 76% of Die Geißböcke contests this season have soared over 2.5 goals.

Neither of these two teams will be confused with Bayern Munich on attack, but they both feature serviceable offenses with Koln ranking eighth in the Bundesliga in expected goals for and Augsburg sitting 12th in the same category.

Additionally, Augsburg’s leaky defense, which ranks sixth-worst in terms of xG against this season, should provide plenty of opportunities for Koln to find the back of the net and hopefully open things up.

Augsburg and Koln have both seen Over 2.5 Goals land in 11 of their respective home/away games this season with a combined average of 3.57 goals per-game.