feel free to add , let's have a great day !
GL

$200,000 Grade 2 Santa Anita Oaks

5:32 p.m. EDT – 3-year-old fillies, 8½f

The global favorite in Kentucky Oaks futures, Swiss Skydiver (6-5) comes in for trainer Ken McPeek off a 2½-length win last month in the Grade 3 Fantasy at Oaklawn Park. She was 16-1 that day and had never been shorter than 8-1 in a graded stakes. Yet she has won two in a row. Despite having only four starters, there is quality in the field. Speech (8-5) has been second three times in a row, including a Grade 3 in March at Santa Anita. The American Pharoah-sired Merneith (2-1) makes a class jump for Baffert after a 10-length maiden, sprint victory in the Oaklawn slop. Presuming she does not go out like a bat-out-of-hell sprinter, Merneith is the play here. But at these prices, it will only be on the nose.

$400,000 Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby

7:09 p.m. EDT – 3-year-olds, 1⅛ miles

Honor A. P. (9-5) is healthier than he was when he lost to Authentic (4-5) in the Grade 2 San Felipe. But they have both been off in the three months since. Not that I will exclude those two in exotics, but the win-place play here is with Anneau d’Or (15-1). She was slow getting out of the gate last month in the Charlton division of the Arkansas Derby. The thinking here is that jockey Víctor Espinoza gets her going quickly this time, that he gets first run on the leaders turning for home and that Anneau d’Or breaks through after coming up a head short on the same course last fall in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

$300,000 G1 Hollywood Gold Cup at Santa Anita

8:12 p.m. EDT – 3 & up, 1¼ miles

Higher Power (9-5) did not have any of my money on him when he won at 9-1 in the Pacific Classic last summer. He did have my money on him when gate issues contributed to his finishing a distant third in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Maybe he was homesick when he was an even more distant last in the Pegasus World Cup, where he also carried my money. Midcourt (2-1) should be out on the early lead, but I am not convinced that he gets all 10 furlongs. Improbable (2-1) should be named Inscrutable. What is the definition of insanity? Hoping he literally answers the bell this time at his home track, I am staying with Higher Power.

SATURDAY

Belmont Park Race No. 6 (3:59 p.m. ET/12:59 p.m. PT)

#8 Social Paranoia (9/2 morning line). “Todd Pletcher colt continues his 4-year-old campaign with third start of year. He won his first start in the Grade 3 Appleton at Gulfstream Park but was the victim of a lone speed runner from the same barn last time out. Social Paranoia placed in a Grade 1 over the Belmont turf last year and has a sharp workout for this one. He faces four Chad Brown runners, so the price will be good. Wager: Win.”

Belmont Park Race No. 9 (5:36 p.m. ET/2:36 p.m. PT)
#11 Vekoma (7/2 morning line). “This lightly raced monster has only one subpar effort thus far and that was the Kentucky Derby over a sloppy track last year. His Ragozin numbers jumps off the page and a repeat effort should be enough to beat #1 Firenze Fire, who is making a barn switch. Wager: Win and key #11 Vekoma over 1, 2 & 10.”

Race 6: The Fort Marcy Stakes

3:39 p.m. ET

The Grade II Fort Marcy kicks off the stakes racing at Belmont on Saturday. The race will be run over the inner-turf course for 1 1/8 miles and is for four year olds and up.

Chad Brown’s barn has been quiet this spring due to the pandemic, but now that racing is back in full force, watch out. This is a nine-horse field and Brown has four of the runners. The two that interest me most are No. 5 Instilled Regard (7-2) and No. 4 Flop Shot (6-1).

Instilled Regard is a lightly raced five-year-old, who only has six tries on the turf with one win, one second and three thirds. What I like most about him in this spot is his versatility; he’s shown the ability to sit just off the pace, in a stalking trip, or rally from further back. With the lack of speed in this race, he’s going to need to be closer to the pace in order to win here.

Flop Shot is owned by Peter Brant. Brown and Brant have had a number of wildly successful horses together and, like a number of other Brant-owned horses, Flop Shot is shipping over from Europe and making his US debut in this spot.
Chad Brown wins at a 21% clip when his horse is shipping in to the US and a 28% rate when a horse is making its first start with him as the trainer. Both of Flop Shot’s wins in France came at roughly 1 1/8 miles and he flattened out late in his last two starts, so he should appreciate the shorter distance.

The horse that really caught my attention here, though, is No. 2 Gucci Factor (6-1). The seven-year-old son of Gio Ponti has seven wins and one third from 10 career turf starts and, more importantly, has five wins and one third from eight career starts over the Belmont turf course. He’s definitely a horse for the course.

That said, this is definitely his toughest challenge to date and will be up against it without much pace, but he did have the highest Beyer speed figure last time out.

Race 7: The Westchester Stakes

4:32 p.m. ET

Next up we have the Grade III Westchester which will be run over the main track at 1 1/16 miles and it’s for four year olds and up.

The morning-line favorite is No. 9 Honor Code (6-5). This will be the first start of his four-year-old season, after finishing a disappointing seventh in the Breeders’ Cup Classic last Fall.

His running style fits nicely in here as there should be pace for him to close into, but there is cause for concern as his trainer, Shug McGaughey, struggles off long layoffs. McGaughey’s horses win at a 10% rate coming off a 180+ day break. Honor Code is definitely a deserving favorite, but I’m going to take a stand against and find a price to take a shot with.

That price is No. 1 Endorsed (6-1), the other closer in the field. He’s won three of his six starts over the fast main track and is a perfect 2-for-2 at the distance. This will be his second start off the layoff and trainer Bill Mott has a 22% win-rate in the second race off the layoff.

Jockey Joel Rosario is back aboard and he has guided Endorsed to two of his four career victories. Rosario always seems to know when to ask the deep closers to move, especially in a situation like this where there should be enough pace.

The question is whether or not he can get the jump on Honor Code.

Race 8: The Intercontinental Stakes

Race 8 is the G3 Intercontinental for fillies and mares four years old and up. It will be run over the turf course at seven furlongs.

This is another turf race and it features four more Chad Brown runners. There’s one Chad runner that stands out over the rest and that’s No. 12 Significant Form (5-2).

She has five wins and one second from 12 career turf starts and has three wins and one second from five career turf starts at Belmont.

She finished seventh in the G1 Matriarch at Del Mar in her last start. She got away slowly in that race, and frankly was outmatched, going against some of the best fillies and mares in the land.

Significant Form fits much better in here as she won one G2 and two G3’s last year. One of those G3’s was this exact race and she was coming off a similar layoff. She’s the one to beat.

Race 9: The Runhappy Carter Handicap

5:36 p.m. ET

The last stakes race of the day is part of the Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series, meaning the winner gets an automatic and free entry into the Breeders’ Cup.

The G1 Runhappy Carter Handicap features a deep field of 11 horses, three years old and up, running seven furlongs over the main track. This has the makings to be a great thoroughbred race.

My top pick is No. 10 Mind Control (4-1). I highly doubt that we will get his morning-line odds of 4-1 near post-time, as he’s the only horse with a G1 victory to his name in this field and is one of two (No. 11 Vekoma) who has won multiple graded stakes.

Mind Control has six wins, two seconds and one third from 11 starts on the fast main track, with four wins and one third in six starts at the distance. He’s coming in on a three-race win streak and he’s getting jockey John Velazquez back aboard, who has been up for five of his seven career victories.

Mind Control has shown tremendous versatility, winning in gate-to-wire fashion, sitting a stalking trip and most recently closing from off the pace. He’s the one to beat.

No. 11 Vekoma (7-2) is sent out by trainer George Weaver. Vekoma had a lot of success early in his career, breaking his maiden right here at Belmont at first asking as a two-year-old and he followed that up by winning the G3 Nashua.

As a three-year-old he was put on the Derby trail, finishing third in the G2 Fountain of Youth and winning the G2 Blue Grass before running a dismal 13th in the Derby.

He was then sent to the sidelines for 10 months and made his four-year-old debut at Gulfstream in a non-graded stakes event where he won going away by 3 3/4 lengths. While it was great to see him get back to the winner’s circle, especially after the long layoff, he will need to continue to move forward from that start if he’s going to win today.

Weaver is only 9% in graded stakes races and 10% coming off a 61-180 day layoff, but he is 19% with horses coming off a win and 20% in dirt races.

My favorite longshot for this race is No. 7 American Anthem (15-1). He has six wins, three seconds and three thirds from 18 career starts. Three of those wins have come against graded stakes company, but the most recent was almost two years ago in the G2 San Carlos.

Since then, he hasn’t finished better than third against this type of company, although in his most recent graded stakes start earlier this year, he finished fourth by 3/4 of a length.

Trainer Danny Gargan is 25% in sprints, 25% off a 61-180 day layoff and 29% route to sprint, but only 10% in graded stakes.

With the aggressive Kenny Carmouche in the irons, you know he will be in the thick of it early, the question is can he hold.