The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping |
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puckslug
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Nov 2013
Posts: 1660
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Pretty Confident in Nadal
My Take:
The issue with Nadal is his durability. Lucky for him, he's had a pretty easy draw into this year's finals, playing 32 less games than Djokovic. For a player who has been prone to injury and fatigue in the past, Nadal seems to have a slight edge over Djokovic.
With that being said, these are the two top players in the world right now and I can't see this match going less than five sets. These two are neck in neck in talent and ability right now.
Nadal lost to Djokovic a few weeks ago in Rome in three sets. This is a big factor in why I don't think the line has moved to favor Nadal more.
In Rome, Nadal didn't play well. While he hit his first serve, he only won 54% of his first serves. Djokovic's return game was on point causing 14 break point opportunities against Nadal and never gave up an ace. While it was a fair representation of Djokovic, I think in that match we saw a rare Nadal, especially on clay.
Also, with fatigue being an issue, leading up to the match vs Djokovic in Rome, Nadal had played 106 games to Djokovic' 112 games played.
I think Nadal will be better rested, especially if this goes to 5 sets and therefore be able to edge it out against Djokovic.
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Money Line:
Nadal -130 (Friday)
Nadal -125 (Tonight)
Games Won:
Nadal -3 +150
Totals:
OVER 42 -115
Good luck!
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06-08-14 06:55 AM |
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