The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping |
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fulkgl
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Mar 2005
Posts: 2093
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Yes, I am here. Some days I get busy and don't have time to read the forum. Other days I have plenty of time.
Other systems...
1) Variation of the RDT MLB 4D chase plays. I only chase the HF, HD and VF. I don't like chasing VD plays. For instance, tonight would be a play on NYR if they were a favorite. They aren't a favorite, so no play. The play is determined by NYR losing 2 in a row as a home favorite. This system last year was +16%, this year it's +20%. So far this year it hasn't lost any of the 4D chases.
2) Play medium favorite with an edge. Go to
http://www.sportsbook.com/statfeed/statfeed.php?page=nhl/daily and look for teams Statfox has marked as having an edge. Only play those who are medium favorites. For instance, -120 to -190. You can lower the -190 threshold if you like. Big favorites are too much chalk, and dogs don't win enough. No chase, just play them flat. I've seen 35-13 this year. Plays are about 95% on visitors. The idea is play on a VF that should be -260, but only costs you -140. Lines can often be biased towards the home team.
3) Last year I did an "Oscar's grind" type chase of the "ice picks" by the touts at covers.com. This year those picks have been few and far between, so I haven't done it this year. They were like most touts, close to 50-50. Last year they picked one per day. But they seldom had a long hot or cold streak. So, wait for a loser pick, then chase the pick following that until you are up 1 unit. Wait for the loser and repeat.
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02-05-07 10:25 PM |
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