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MrDoug
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Feb 2005
Posts: 325

College Basketball Profits Playing Road Dogs

Each year with so many games being played in college basketball it is hard to keep up with every situation that arises. We decided now that football was over we lend a helping hand on a rather simple, yet important element of betting college basketball. Often bettors will look at home favorites and blindly play them without being able to come up with a strong argument for road underdogs to cover let alone win. Would you be surprised to learn if you took nine major conferences and learned road underdogs cover 56.1% in league play? For more eyebrow raising results, here are what the results produced.

Earlier an article was written about the Pacific-10 and the difficulties these teams have had covering as home favorites. As these teams continue to win on the home court, they are abysmal covering spreads. Home favorites are 24-7 winning all conference games thus far, but are a putrid 11-19-1 ATS. Given the highly competitive nature of this conference being a home favorite has meant little. Leading the way in futility is Arizona who covered for just the second time in seven tries as home choice in Pac-10 play.

After being the top conference for home favorites a season ago, the Missouri Valley has turned around in 2007. The Valley exploded onto the national scene a year ago after years of being an underrated conference. This year they are ranked fifth among the power conferences and have had more teams rise and fall in league play then David Lee Roth’s singing career. With team’s taking turns beating up each other, road dogs are sharp 24-16-3 ATS including winning 30.2%. Northern Iowa dresses up especially well as road dog in league play with 3-1 ATS record.

The Big East, Big 12, Big Ten and the Mountain West Conference all see home faves win at nearly a three to win margin in league play. Even with those significant winning numbers those playing these favorites are only hovering around .500. In the Big East a 36-13 SU record produces a 25-21-3 ATS record. The Big 12 has the home favorites clicking along at a 78.1% straight up with a17-14-1 record against the number. In the Big Ten road underdogs have had little chance of winning, period. These clubs have won just 5 of 34 games played and are 15-18-1 ATS in these situations. In the Mountain West the news is much the same with 23-6 SU mark and 13-16 ATS record.

The always discussed ACC shows road dogs showing some bite at 17-17-1 ATS with 9-26 SU record. Other then North Carolina, all the other top contenders in the Atlantic Coast Conference are just 7-10-1 ATS as home favorites this season.

In the SEC, visiting dogs have brought home treats with 20-17 against the spread record in spite of winning only 9 times in 37 tries. The SEC West has been the weaker of the two divisions this season and it shows up the home favorites just 8-11 ATS.

When searching for road dog winners the shocker ends up being the most profitable of all with the Metro Atlantic Conference. Though many might not be familiar with all the teams in this league, this conference plays a fair amount of league games on Friday and Sunday’s. What raised a furrowed brow was the low percentage of wins the home teams were able to accomplish. The East Coast MAC is just 30-19 61.2% with home favorites even winning games, this has led to road teams having 28-19-1 ATS record.

Utilize these numbers to your benefit to help make you a winner the rest of the college basketball regular season.

Old Post 02-05-07 06:09 PM
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urlacher
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Dec 2004
Posts: 1095

Thanks for the article Doug. Any planned articles that would be of special value to Foxsheet subscribers?

Old Post 02-05-07 08:58 PM
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