The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping |
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brian_n_bama
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: May 2005
Posts: 20449
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Super Bowl XLI Computer Simulation
At several member's request, I input the teams and simulated the Super Bowl 20 times as I did for the bowl games. It worked well for the bowl games, but had a rough start to the NFL playoffs so I haven't really been persistent in continuing it. Anywhere, here are the results that I was totally shocked with.
Indianapolis -6.5 vs Chicago (47.5)
Chicago won 11 of the 20 games, and was 14-6 vs the number. The average score was Chicago 24.3, Indianapolis 21.7, for an average 1.5 points under the total. The game went under 11 times and over 9 times.
Yardage breakdown:
Rushing: Indianapolis 105.9, Chicago 143.2
Passing: Indianapolis 241.8, Chicago 213.3
Total: Indianapolis 347.7, Chicago 356.5
Side: Chicago +6.5 (OFFICIAL PLAY)
Total: Under 47.5
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SCORE BY QUARTERS
Ind 4.6 5.9 4.3 6.8 -- 21.7
Chi 4.4 7.3 6.8 5.8 -- 24.3
TEAM STATS (Per Game Averages)
First Downs: Chi 19, Ind 20
Rushing: Chi 30-143, Indy 30-106
Passing: Chi 18/30/213/1.4 INT Indy 20/31/242/0.95 INT
Total Yards: Chi 356.5, Indy 347.7
Kick Returns: Chi 24.1, Indy 23.4
Punt Returns: Chi 13.4, Indy 7.7
Punting: Chi 44.9, Indy 42.9
Turnovers (Total for 20 games): Chi 30, Indy 31
Penalties: Chi 7-47, Indy 5-40
Sacks: Chi 8, Indy 20
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INDIVIDUAL STATS (Per Game Averages)
INDIANAPOLIS
Rushing
Addai 13-60
Rhodes 12-36
Manning 4-10
Receiving
Wayne 5-72
Harrison 5-67
Clark 3-40
Passing
Manning 20/31/242 (30 TD, 19 INT in the 20 gms)
Interceptions (total for the 20 games)
Jackson, Bethea 5
Harper 4
Sacks
Mathis 10
Freeney 3
Thomas 3
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CHICAGO
Rushing
Jones 16-80
Benson 9-43
Grossman 5-14
Receiving
Berrian 4-54
Muhammad 4-45
Clark 3-38
Passing
Grossman 17/28/202 (23 TD, 24 INT in the 20 gms)
Kick Returns
Davis, Hester each returned 1 for TD
Punt Returns
Hester 13.4 avg
Interceptions (total for the 20 games)
R.Manning 6
Tillman 3
Brown 3
Sacks
Anderson 4
Ogunleye 2
A.Brown 2
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02-04-07 04:04 AM |
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jrg
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Sep 2006
Posts: 1095
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Thanks Brian, I am already on Chicago, so this makes me feel even better.
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02-04-07 05:31 AM |
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duckman
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 2703
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brian
compared you player props with what's available and across the board your numbers are UNDER what is being offered. I think if someone just spread out there plays on the under (the yardage in particular each player will get, it should be a profitable day)
All things being equal, when in doubt, take the underdog.
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02-04-07 04:09 PM |
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