The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping |
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CrackedAces
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Nov 2006
Posts: 639
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U.H.T.R.O.'s 5 Year Statistics
For those that do not know, UHTRO = Unranked Home Team vs Ranked Opponent.
Well, the 5 year totals are finally complete! And let me tell you, this was A LOT tougher to do than I thought it would be. Sooooo time consuming. Very glad its over. One angle definately sticks out, and it is probably a given. Big thanks to Pimpin Drew again for his help. It is much appreciated! Highrize, thanks for offering to do the last year. I ended up with time and finished it off to get it out there for everyone. Thank you for offering though.
I hope you enjoy!
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UHT's as favorites:
2001-02 Season 21-19-2
2002-03 Season 22-15-1
2003-04 Season 15-8-2
2004-05 Season 18-12-0
2005-06 Season 15-24-0
Current Season 15-8-1
Overall 106-86-6 55.2%
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UHT's as 0-3.5 Dogs:
2001-02 Season 24-18-1
2002-03 Season 22-30-0
2003-04 Season 20-16-2
2004-05 Season 17-20-1
2005-06 Season 30-26-0
Current Season 20-11-1
Overall 133-121-5 52.4%
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UHT's as 4-9.5 Dogs:
2001-02 Season 32-40-2
2002-03 Season 40-28-1
2003-04 Season 38-36-1
2004-05 Season 43-47-1
2005-06 Season 34-30-1
Current Season 17-20-0
Overall 204-201-6 50.4%
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UHT's as 10+ Dogs:
2001-02 Season 18-13-1
2002-03 Season 16-16-2
2003-04 Season 19-20-1
2004-05 Season 21-28-1
2005-06 Season 19-18-1
Current Season 11-7-1
Overall 104-102-7 50.5%
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My thoughts on this:
Each angle seems to have one season that pulls the percentages down severely. While I am not going to say to just discard that season (that would defeat the purpose to the research), it is something to consider. Take the UHT as Favs for example. 55%over 5 years is nice, but take out last season and that angle jumps up near 60% ! Also, with each of the other angles being close to 50%, it leads me to believe that this seasons numbers will revert to that as well. Do we start to play the ranked teams?? That could be a whole other discussion.
Take the numbers for what they are. Just to jump this question ahead of time, I do not have conference totals for past years yet. I am probably going to take some time off from researching this for a bit, and then look that stuff up at a later date.
Let me know your thoughts on this ! Thanks !
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02-03-07 07:22 PM |
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tendog
Registered: Feb 2003
Posts: 407
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thanks for all the work you and others are doing on this. the results are baffling and disappointing, but better to know this than follow down a dangerous path. someone posted a few weeks ago that this kind of angle quits working so well about now in the season. by feb. the linemaker has a very good handle on how these teams match up. did you notice diminishing results later in the season? also, the unranked home favorite angle is becoming very well known, and eventually is possibly losing its effectiveness.
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02-03-07 07:36 PM |
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purple
Registered: Aug 2004
Posts: 143
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Cracked
Appreciate the work, I have done analysis like this before and know how time consuming it all is. Someone will figure out that a database with rankings would be a good idea and we would pay money for it. I would be interested in breaking down the games by days, as in the NBA there are differences in how systems work according to the day, and whether of not the game is actually played during the day or night. Weekend games are different from week day games......it would be an interesting study.
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02-04-07 01:52 AM |
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jrg
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Sep 2006
Posts: 1095
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Thanks for putting the time into researching and posting.
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02-04-07 02:54 AM |
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