The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping |
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qs185
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Apr 2003
Posts: 1866
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Would appreciate confirmation (Nick? someone else?) that I am doing this correctly
Thanks in advance to anyone taking the time to look over this for me.
I am a new member, and I figure the game is over, so hopefully it's okay to discuss openly - if not, I apologize in advance.
I think I am doing this correctly, but would appreciate someone verifying that. Also, there seems to be confusion (at least I'm a little confused) as to whether or not a play is an "official" play if the star difference is less than 20.
I thought I saw in another thread that Nick said that he would still play it, but at 5% instead of 10%. So,
Question 1)
Is the following correct?
If the biggest difference is less than 20 stars, and the game estimator agrees, play it at 5%. If the difference is more than 20 stars, and the game estimator agrees, play it at 10%.
Question 2)
Is it only an "official" Nick system star play if the difference is more than 20 stars?
Question 3)
Is there 1 and only 1 game per day, even if there are more plays with high star rating differences?
For example, if there is a game with a 25 star difference and a game with a 28 star difference, and the game estimator agrees with both plays, ONLY the 28 star game would be played.
For tonight's Tampa Bay / Baltimore game, here is what I came up with:
For Baltimore (all against the money line) :
StatFox Super Situations
There are 5 situations with a total rating of 17 stars.
StatFox Matchup Power Trends against similar type opponents
There are 7 trends with a total rating of 6 stars.
StatFox Situational Power Trends
There are 5 trends with a total rating of 2 stars.
Total for Baltimore: 17+6+2 = 25
For Tampa Bay:
StatFox Super Situations favoring
There are 1 situations with a total rating of 2 stars.
StatFox Situational Power Trends
There are 5 trends with a total rating of 9 stars.
Total for Tampa Bay: 2+9 = 11
Difference: 14 in favor of Baltimore
The game estimator shows Baltimore winning 4.6 to 3.9, so it favors Baltimore.
Thus, Baltimore was a play (still not sure if it was an "official" play)
Thanks and good luck,
Bart
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04-22-03 06:38 AM |
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