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CHOP
StatFox Hall of Famer
Registered: Apr 2003
Posts: 4755
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Star System Totals Trial-Games To WATCH
Yesterday's play got rained out. Today, the play was on the UNDER 9/12 in the Twins/Royals game (just like yesterday). There was a 62 star differential, and the Estimator had the game going under by 7/10th's of a run.
In the NHL, Anaheim has a 50 star differential to cover the puck line (+1.5/-175), but the Estimator has the Stars winning by 2/10th's of a goal, so technically, that's not a play. However, the Ducks had 51 stars to 1, so I'm interested in seeing how the teams/totals with 50 stars or more perform ATS.
There are also 50 stars for the game to go UNDER, and none for the Over. The Estimator has the game going UNDER by 9/10th's of a goal. Since Sunday, all of the plays I tracked were on the totals until today.
We'll see how it goes.
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04-24-03 09:17 PM |
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Jake DeNiro
StatFox Hall of Famer
Registered: Jan 2003
Posts: 752
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CHOP.....
when doing your star adding on the totals, you have to examine any over or unders that are listed under STATFOX SUPER SITUATIONS as they will have doubles listed. Example below is on the San Fran/Pittsburgh game today (Apr 24)
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Play Over - Road teams where the total is 8.5 or less (SAN FRANCISCO) - with a starting pitcher with poor control (more than 2.75 BB's/start), where team's hitters draw 4 walks or more/game on the season.
(80-42 since 1997.) (65.6%, +34.3 units. Rating = 3*)
Play Over - Road teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (SAN FRANCISCO) - with a starting pitcher with poor control (more than 2.75 BB's/start), where team's hitters draw 4 walks or more/game on the season.
(80-42 since 1997.) (65.6%, +34.3 units. Rating = 3*)
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Play Over - Road teams where the total is 8.5 or less (SAN FRANCISCO) - with a starting pitcher with poor control (more than 2.75 BB's/start), stranding 7.5 or more runners on base per game on the season.
(91-52 since 1997.) (63.6%, +35.2 units. Rating = 3*)
Play Over - Road teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (SAN FRANCISCO) - with a starting pitcher with poor control (more than 2.75 BB's/start), stranding 7.5 or more runners on base per game on the season.
(91-52 since 1997.) (63.6%, +35.2 units. Rating = 3*)
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Play Over - Road teams where the total is 8.5 or less (SAN FRANCISCO) - with a starting pitcher with poor control (more than 2.75 BB's/start), with a team on base percentage of .390 or better on the season (NL).
(34-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.9%, +20.8 units. Rating = 3*)
Play Over - Road teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (SAN FRANCISCO) - with a starting pitcher with poor control (more than 2.75 BB's/start), with a team on base percentage of .390 or better on the season (NL).
(34-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.9%, +20.8 units. Rating = 3*)
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Don't want you to go doing a bunch of work, only to find out that there's many the same and have to be checked . Only found this in that section. Thanks for the work you're doing on trying to come up with something from the sheets. GL
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04-24-03 10:50 PM |
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CHOP
StatFox Hall of Famer
Registered: Apr 2003
Posts: 4755
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Jake,
Thanks for the heads up, but I didn't see any doubles. There are some similar angles, but they usually have different codicils. For example (same game):
Play Over - Road teams where the total is 8.5 or less (SAN FRANCISCO) - with a starting pitcher with poor control (more than 2.75 BB's/start), where team's hitters draw 4 walks or more/game on the season.
(80-42 since 1997.) (65.6%, +34.3 units. Rating = 3*)
Play Over - Road teams where the total is 8.5 or less (SAN FRANCISCO) - with a starting pitcher with poor control (more than 2.75 BB's/start), stranding 7.5 or more runners on base per game on the season.
(91-52 since 1997.) (63.6%, +35.2 units. Rating = 3*)
Somebody correct me if I'm wrong on this. Also, due to time constraints, it's easier for me to go through each section-Super Situations, Matchup Power Trends, and Situational Power Trends-from top to bottom, and just note the number of stars listed in the gray field.
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04-25-03 02:27 PM |
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CHOP
StatFox Hall of Famer
Registered: Apr 2003
Posts: 4755
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Jake,
I can see your point more clearly now, but I don't have the time to weed through all of the stars to find those dupes. And remember, I just started experimenting with Nick's Star System to see if it's just as effective with totals. I still look at conventional stats (ERA last three, WHIP, Team vs. lefties, hits-per-game, etc.), so when there's a full slate of games like tonight, it could take up a good part of my day. The examples you gave are good ones, and it does seem like splitting hairs in some instances. But for the moment, I'll stick with using all of the stars for purposes of the experiment.
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04-26-03 12:13 AM |
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