new subscriber and just noticed umpire stats at bottom of sheets - the info looks very promising and am wondering if anyone using these umpire stats to any advantage and anyone have any advice?

I'm a believer in Umpire stats.

Last 2 years things were pretty even with these guys. H/V ERA's and O/U's.


I'm seeing this year the ump's that clearly showed bias in '98-'00 are back at it.

I am not sure if Statfox will let this get by, but Covers.com, (I have no affiliation or agenda here) has an ecellent umpire data base. For totals, I only use the top and bottom 5 %, if I am going to play a total strickly because of a ump. By this I mean most of the umps have o/u stats year in and year out around 50/50, The small percentage of guys who have over 60% bias either over or under number somewhere between 5 and 10 umpires every year, these are the umps who have either very tight strike zones, making it tough on the pitcher and leading to overs around 60 to 65% of the time, the same is true about the umps with big strike zones making it easier for a pitcher to get a call strike and they tend to ump 60 to 65 % unders. Some guys use home and away umps also, so far I have not. What you need to look for is umps who are consistent from year to year, Covers data base goes back to 1997, so you need to make sure say 2002 was not a one time anomoly. So far this year Jim Reynolds 5 overs and no Unders. and on the under end of the spectrum, Brian Gorman is 0 and 4. Does this maean their next games will be overs or unders, of course not, that why you need to see if they are consistent over or under year in and year out umpires. Angel Hernandez is a notorious over umpire. Eric Young used to be a great under umpire, but he retired.

hi dave, thanks for the response - I was noticing the same thing - the umpires seem to be just another good tool -

went there but see no stats on umps (oops as I now call them) could you click me thru so I could find it?

Go to covers home page click on MLB, left hand side second sport down. Now you will be in the MLB section - across the top is a menu: Matchups - Odds - Statistics - Stadiums - Umpires - News. Click on umpires. You will then see a list of all current umps alphabetically, At the top you can see Over/under standings and Homer standings for this year by %. Say you click on over/under standings you will see the standings of every ump who has worked home plate this year, From the highest over % down to the higest under %. Above that you can click on any of the last five years and get the same thing for that particular year. This is important for establishing consistency by an umpire year to year. A lot of guys will be under umps this year and over umps last year, I avoid these guys when I handicap umps. The homer umps are also available. The alphabetical listing is good if you want to go directly to a certain ump. The one problem with umps is the first game of a series, it is very hard to find out "early" who will be behind the plate for the first game of a series, maybe someone else in this forum can help both of us in this matter. All other games of a series you can count on the ump who worked first base the previous game as the homeplate ump for next game, just look in the box score of the previous game for the 1st base ump. I hope this helps. Wil.

Nice data, should be a great decision maker on those critical plays...best of luck to you and thanks much for sharing...peace.

wilheim,


I was wondering how often you use this to select totals and how does it work out for you. I have been trying to come up with a good formula for totals and I am going to add this angle in. I have been looking at wind and how it changes games in different stadiums.


Drock

I always take a look at who is umpping when I handicap a total, most of the time they are in the 50/50 category. Sometime I may like a total over, only to find out there is a major under guy behind the plate or vice versa. In this case I have to pass the total. Bottom line is I use them when they agree with the other reasons I might have for betting a total one way or another. Some people will identify the consistent over or under guys and bet them every time they call balls and strikes, no brainer style. This takes disipline and patience, see for the first game of a series you need to wait until warm-ups are announced, normallly no more than 15 minutes before game time, warm-ups will tell you who is pitching and catching and who is umping where, this is only important in the first game of a series, but if you are following a group of umps with high % of O/U's, you don't want to miss one because he worked the plate the first game of a series. Don Best puts this info out around 10 minutes before game time, late but still in time to bet. A cheaper way is the USA Today Website, Scores page, watch the page as the game approaches first they will announce lineups, then no later than 5 minutes before game time they change to warmups, try it next time you have a chance close to game time. USA Today Scores page can't miss it. I don't use umps as a main reason to bet a total, but do pay attention to whoever is umping. Weather is another issue, as is wind. Wind can be tricky, again Covers has good info on wind direction. Personally I will take long hard look at each pitchers opponets batting average both lefty and righty against each pitcher. Then I will check the lineup that particular pitcher is facing, if for example he is getting tagged by leftys for an batting ave. of 312. I will see if the pricipal offensive players on the team he is facing have strong left handed hitters and do the same with rightys. It is amazing how much of a difference you can find between batting averages versus a pither by rightys and leftys. The very best pitchers have similar ave's "against" by both leftys and rightys. This is why I don't bet baseball until around the 1st of June when you have some statistical meat to chew on.
Here is good website for ballpark configuration, north is on top of each diagram:http://ballparks.com/baseball/index.htm. Good luck,
Wilheim.