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Jake DeNiro
StatFox Hall of Famer
Registered: Jan 2003
Posts: 752
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GoBlue01.....Horses
as DevilDog had said in the other thread.....Horseracing is the hardest sport.... to handicap but it can be done, and I totally agree. I also agree with what he said about successful handicapper's not willing to share their systems. As far as forgetting longshot's, that's where I disagree. I've a number of proven angles that I will be willing to share when I get the time that has made me BIG $$$. But the real reason for posting this message is I'd like to share a little something that I have found that will make you money at the Throughbred's, and it's based on the odd's. Over the year's and I mean many year's, I've read and studied as much as I could about Horse Racing. Of all the books I've read, and as I write this I look over my shoulder to a library of about 30-40 books, the one that I found to be the best and simpliest is a book by William L. Scott "How Will Your Horse Run Today" You can pick up the Racing Form just as you walk into the track look at who is the Fav, and get to work. After you master the 3 chapter's, and they are simple to master. (there's 4 but I did well enough with the 3) you're on your way. I actually did a real betting study using his method, and my goal was to clear $20 a day.....yes $20 a day, after expenses. Doesn't seem like much, but like I said I was doing an actual betting study, and my wager's for this study was $2 Win and $8 Place. I was hoping to do this for 20 straight. I only completed 14 day's, but when I finished the 14 day's, I was averaging $33 a day profit. And this is on horses who are 1st/2nd/3rd betting choices. I still use it when capping a race if I don't have any angles going in that race, or if I'm with friends that are just at the track for the day, I'll use his method as I know that a big % of the horses will be there. He has 3 books out and another real good one is "Total Victory At The Track", and it is REALLY GOOD, but alot of work. But myself, I really enjoy the angles I have acquired over the year's, and if people are interested will post some when time allows. Before I forget, another good thing is the price of the book.....mine cost $13.95, a real bargain. Check it out, and GL
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04-20-03 06:25 PM |
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DevilDog
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Mar 2003
Posts: 796
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It sounds like part of that system is sorta like a system I still use every once in a while. My system uses the top four horses when I am actually handicapping and the third favorite bet across the board with the most money being bet to show.
This system makes money but you have to be REALLY REALLY consistent. At most tracks you can't lay thousands across because you will effect the odds. But at the big tracks you can do this.
The reason horseracing is so difficult is because people actually know so little about racing. Most people know NOTHING about what to look for in a horse that is ready to run. Most people have NO idea why a horse ran bad one time and then ran their eyeballs out the next time. That is when good info. from the inside comes in but that is hard to gather.
A good example of this is a horse, a filly, I was assistant trainer for. She was heading into the 3/8 pole sitting second ready to pounce and then suddenly shut it down. Damn near like she hit a brick wall. The jock comes back and says, "Damn, I thought going to the 3/8's we had this one won but she just stopped".
We thought maybe she bled but when we got back to the barn we had her scoped and found no blood. Well about an hour later her damn left eye was swollen shut. She had been hit, most likely, by a dirt clod. Since it probably hurt like hell and affected her vision she just stopped.
There was not a sole in the world except for me, the trainer, the jockey, and the owner that knew this. Do you think we were going to tell anyone!! Hell no.
Next time out, at 22-1, she airmailed the group and we made a VERY nice profit in the race. I had her at 50 across and on top of a $2400 exacta.
That is the type of thing that happens at the racetrack all the time. No hanky panky. Just things that happen to a horse that is not reported in the form and only certain people know about.
Like a horse losing a shoe out of the gate or grabbing a quarter, or swallowing their tongue. These things happen and when they are corrected the horse shows a huge improvement.
Systems do work but they need time and you need patience to allow them to overcome the above mentioned things that can happen.
Dog
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04-21-03 01:33 AM |
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DevilDog
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Mar 2003
Posts: 796
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True,
But many times a jock gets off a horse he actually likes to get on a lesser horse because he is committed to that horse and his agent doesn't want to p#$# off the trainer, whom he rides a lot of other good horses for.
The problem with handicapping horses is that there is SO much information that pertains directly to the outcome that cannot be reported. There is no way to accurately obtain this info..
When I was an assistant trainer I worked for a guy that was very finicky about riders. We had a couple of VERY nice horses and he basically made it clear that to ride those horses you had to ride the crap horses also!! These jocks lost a number of races just so they could ride the big boys and girls.
This is why it is important to pay attention to jock, trainer, and owner pairings. Certain pairings are like gold and you eventually figure out why certain jocks do certain things.
Bottom line is that MOST races are won by the top four favorites. If you just understand that you'll instantly become a better player of the horses. That is not to say you cannot pick longshots. You can, but they should be a SMALL part of you wagering.
Dog
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04-21-03 02:59 AM |
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Jake DeNiro
StatFox Hall of Famer
Registered: Jan 2003
Posts: 752
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bbaffert
this angle I'm talking about made me look like I really knew what I was doing. I ran into a friend of mine at the track one day last fall, and we were catching up on small talk about how thing's were going etc. Then talk turned to the races, and he asked my opinion on this race at Belmont. I didn't even look at that race yet, or had considered looking at it. But as soon as I looked at the race he was talking about, this horse stuck out as one of my angles (Doubtful Diva, if I remember correctly)The horse was shipping in from Finger Lakes where the purse was a measely $6000 app. to Belmont where it was $45000 app. The horse had been working out for 5-6 months at Finger Lakes, but as an added bonus had all the following..... was an Owner/Breeder (which is another angle), 1st Lasix, and the trainer had a high % with 2 year olds and 1st time starters. Doubtful Diva won paying $80 something/20 something/and I didn't have a show wager so I don't remember the show price. Because of the high odd's my buddy didn't bet the horse, but I ended up thanking him for bringing my attention to the race, as I had bet Win/Place without hesitation. I've cashed many tickets with this angle, but the biggest was Beau's Fantasy who had been working out at Calder from Aug to Dec. He shipped in from a 20,000 something track to Aqueduct $40,000 something in Dec. Once again, as an added bonus, Owner/Breeder, which I love, and 1st Lasix. The fact of an apprentice jock aboard was also a bonus in my mind, as it throws most bettor's off.....Beau's Fantasy $141.60/69.40/show?. I'll never forget those payoff's. The angle isn't 100%, but what is. But the double digit payoff's are worth the wait. The way I look at this angle is if they think their horse is ready, and are entering where it can't be claimed, and shipping, I'm going with them. If it were to be entered in a claiming race that's a different story. You have to think like an horseman, as money is the name of the game. GL with your horses.
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04-21-03 03:10 PM |
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ron
Registered: Jan 2003
Posts: 109
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The book that has made me money over many years was called "the million dollar move" (forgot who wrote it). Basically it was any horse who ran in the last 2 weeks and in his last race was near or at the lead at the 1/2 way point, then dropped back for the next to last call, but either gained ground or didn't lose any in the stretch (pace/time of stretch considered). Theory being - horse held back then let loose again to see if could compete in the stretch. Some excellent prices on this. Very selective (not very many plays per week/month) but I will still look for this if I'm at the track, even if it is against my ragosin play, I will cover myself.
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04-21-03 09:35 PM |
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ron
Registered: Jan 2003
Posts: 109
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Blue, many t-bred simulcasting at the med. Trackside dining has your own little tv with different channels for eack track.
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04-22-03 04:23 PM |
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