Here's an idea incorporating the idea of "continual top 10" as well as concepts of "momentum" and "trend".

The goal here is that you want to avoid teams that under or over-perform for a period of time such that they qualify under whatever top-10 rule or top-10-fade filter, then all of a sudden turn on the jets -- LA, ATL, COL -- or have played well then start to go downhill -- Boston, obviouslly realizing it's impossible to skip these uphill or downhill trends altogether as there is always lag.

Here are 4 ideas for new series (3 or more game series):

66/50 (home) #1:
- chase any home team that has WON 20-of-L30 games (66%) or better, if-and-only-if
- visiting team has LOST 15-of-L30 games or worse

66/50 (away) #2:
- chase any visiting team that has WON 20-of-L30 games (66%) or better, if-and-only-if
- home team has LOST 15-of-L30 games or worse

66/50 (home) #3:
- chase any home team that has WON 20-of-L30 HOME games (66%) or better, if-and-only-if
- visiting team has LOST 15-of-L30 AWAY games or worse

66/50 (away) #4:
- chase any visiting team that has WON 20-of-L30 HOME games (66%) or better, if-and-only-if
- home team has LOST 15-of-L30 AWAY games or worse

Note you need 30-games in the books for each team for #1-2, and you need 30-home/30-away games in the books for #3-4. #1-2 doesn't distinguish between whether last 30 games were home or away. It just likes to look at overall trend of how well our team is playing vs. visiting team. If the team is playing well then the theory is the probability of getting swept is less likely.

I haven't run the numbers on these but wanted to share ideas in case someone else has more time than me.

I really like those 4, i too dont have the historical stats, but if someone does dig up the historical stats on how its done/performed over the past few years ill do the stats on which teams fall under these criteria for the upcoming series this week.........

nntrader

great ideas.I'm pumped
So, I will accept the homework, doing idea #1.

Homework done.

Starting date was thursday July 22, 2004 working backwards thru the schedule for thirty games here are the teams:

66% winning:

St. Loius 23 - 7
San Diego 20 - 10
Atlanta 19 - 11 (.633)
Los Angeles 19 - 11 ( .633)

So ,the only team that was at home starting a new 3 game series on friday July 23, 2004 was St.Louis. They were facing San fran.
But, San Fran the last 30 games has a record of 18 - 12 (.600).This series would of been a no play.
No plays for idea # 1 this weekend.

I will work on the others,eventually, or somebody else could could lend 30 minutes of their time.

tv

I just ran all the numbers on the updated team home records/winning % and away teams/losing % and came up with these plays starting Monday--

Home >60% Winning-
White Sox 62.5%
Oakland 68.7%
Cincinatti 60.8%

Away>60% Losing--
Seattle 71%
Arizona 68%
KC 72.9% (starts Tues)

Meaning the plays would be:
White Sox
Oakland*
Cincinatti
Houston

*->60% HWP against a >60% RLP

Tony, ill help you out, im going to get a drink, be back in a few, tell me what data/research you want me to take and ill get started on it in a few mins..........

ZX,

blasting out of here for a bite and a movie,
take your pick , 2 , 3 or 4

tv

10-4, ill do #3

Currently working on compiling a list of all the home teams that have won ATLEAST 20 of their last 30 HOME GAMES, and I have started with all of the teams that will be at home starting Monday/Tuesda, and of all the HOME TEAMS:

OAKLAND
PITT

are the only ones that fit this criteria. Now ill go run the numbers and see what teams that are on the road have lost atleast 20 or their last 30 ROAD games...........

66/50 (home) #3:
- chase any home team that has WON 20-of-L30 HOME games (66%) or better, if-and-only-if
- visiting team has LOST 15-of-L30 AWAY games or worse

Alright, of the games starting Monday/Tuesday only OAKLAND/SEATTLE fit system #3.

Oakland @ HOME L30=Won 24 of the last 30
Seattle on ROAD L30= Lost 22 of last 30

So based on this criteria, Oakland is the hot team at home, and Seattle is the cold team on the road, and time for me now to go get a cold one.........

ttt, going to try this in the 2nd part of this season, looks like a keeper