Houston Texans at Green Bay Packers (-3, 47.5)

The Texans (5-1) have won three straight games and just brushed aside the Patriots 41-21, covering as 7-point road favorites. Similarly, the Packers (4-2) have won two straight and just beat the Cardinals 34-13, cruising as 5.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Green Bay listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. The public sees two good teams facing off and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite this even 50/50 spread bet split we’ve seen the Packers move up from -1.5 to -3. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the action is balanced and the oddsmakers have no reason to adjust the price. So, based on the line move we can infer that pro money has sided with the Packers laying short chalk at home. Green Bay is receiving 50% of spread bets but 66% of spread dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split and further evidence of wiseguy support. The Packers have value as a non-conference favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is favored to win. The Packers enjoy a sneaky schedule edge as they are playing their second straight home game while the Texans are playing their second straight road game. Those looking to follow the sharp Packers move but wary of a tight game that may not cover the key number could also elect to play Green Bay on the moneyline at -150.

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5, 50)

The Lions (4-1) have won three straight games and just crushed the Cowboys 47-9, easily covering as 3-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Vikings (5-0) just outlasted the Jets 23-17, covering as 2.5-point neutral site favorites in London. This line opened with Minnesota listed as a 1-point home favorite. The public thinks the wrong team is favored and they’re rushing to the window to back the Lions. However, despite 70% of spread bets backing Detroit we’ve actually seen this line move further toward Minnesota -1 to -2.5. This signals sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement on the Vikings, as the line has moved in their favor despite being the unpopular play. Minnesota is one of the top contrarian plays of the week as they are only taking in 30% of spread bets in one of the most heavily bet games on the early Sunday slate. Minnesota has correlative betting value as a short favorite in a high total game (50), with the more expected points scored making it easier for the favorite to cover. The Vikings could also be a moneyline play (-135) for those wary of laying points around a key number. Minnesota enjoys a notable “rest vs tired” advantage as they are coming off a bye while the Lions played on Sunday and now must travel for their second straight road game. Favorites off a bye are 171-139 ATS (55%) with a 7% ROI since 2004.

New York Jets (-2, 38) at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Jets (2-4) have lost three straight games and just fell to the Bills 23-20, failing to cover as 1.5-point home dogs. On the other hand, the Steelers (4-2) just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 32-13 win over the Raiders, easily covering as 3.5-point road favorites. The early opener for this Sunday Night Football showdown was Steelers -1 at home. We quickly saw the line flip to Jets -1, then -1.5 and now -2. Essentially, all movement from the start has come down in favor of New York. The Jets are only receiving 47% of spread bets but 62% of spread dollars, indicating slight contrarian value but also respected sharp action in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Road favorites are 24-7 ATS (77%) with a 22% ROI this season. New York has buy-low value as a team who failed to cover the previous week against a sell-high team who covered easily. The Jets also match as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the team who is expected to win. The Jets area receiving heavy support on the moneyline (-130), as they are taking in only 53% of moneyline bets but a whopping 83% of moneyline dollars. Shawn Smith, the lead ref, is 55-38 ATS (59%) to the road team historically. The Jets are expected to have recently acquired WR Davante Adams in the fold.

these have little movement
GL