LSU (-3, 55.5) at Arkansas

LSU (5-1, ranked 8th) just upset Ole Miss 29-26, winning outright as 4-point home dogs. Similarly, Arkansas (4-2) just shocked Tennessee 19-14, winning outright as 14-point home dogs. This line opened with LSU listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public thinks this line is way too short and they’re rushing to the window to lay the points with LSU. However, despite receiving 72% of spread bets we’ve seen LSU remain stagnant at -3. In fact, some shops are even inching toward toward LSU -2.5. This signals a sharp line freeze and some sneaky reverse line movement on Arkansas, as the line has either stayed the same or moved in their favor despite the Razorbacks being the highly unpopular play. Arkansas is only receiving 28% of spread bets but 63% of spread dollars, a notable sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in a heavily bet 7 p.m. ET game on ESPN. The Razorbacks have buy-low value as an unranked home conference dog against a sell-high ranked opponent. Arkansas enjoys a notable rest advantage, as they are coming off a bye and playing their third straight home game while LSU played on Saturday and now much travel on the road. The Razorbacks are a “dog who can score” system match (33 PPG), thereby keeping pace or backdoor covering. Arkansas also has the better defense, allowing 19.1 PPG compared to LSU giving up 22.3 PPG.

Auburn at Missouri (-4.5, 51.5)

Auburn (2-4) has lost three straight games and just fell to Georgia 31-13 but managed to cover as 21.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, Missouri (5-1, ranked 19th) just crushed UMass 45-3, easily covering as 27.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Missouri listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. The public sees an easy blowout win and cover with Missouri and 71% of spread bets are laying the points with the home favorite. However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen Missouri fall from -6.5 to -4.5. Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already hammering Missouri to begin with? Because respected pro money has sided with Auburn plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the road dog. Auburn is only receiving 29% of spread bets but a whopping 69% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet discrepancy. Auburn has additional buy-low value as an unranked road conference dog against a sell-high ranked opponent. Auburn also enjoys a rest advantage as they are coming off a bye while Missouri played last Saturday.

South Carolina at Oklahoma (-3, 41)

South Carolina (3-3) just put up a valiant effort against Alabama, losing 27-25 but easily covering as 21.5-point road dogs. On the other hand, Oklahoma (4-2) just got rolled by Texas 34-3, failing to cover as 16.5-point home dogs. This line opened with Oklahoma listed as a 3-point home favorite. The public is leaning toward laying the short chalk with Oklahoma at home. However, despite receiving 59% of spread bets we’ve seen Oklahoma remain stagnant at -3 and even fall to -2.5 at some shops. This signals smart money siding with South Carolina and the points (specifically at the key number of +3), as the line has either remained the same or moved in their favor despite being the unpopular side. Short road dogs +4 or less are 587-509 ATS (54%) with a 4% ROI since 2012. With roughly 3-points awarded for home field advantage, this means that on a neutral field the teams are roughly even. South Carolina has the edge on offense, averaging 27.5 PPG compared to Oklahoma averaging 24.3 PPG. The Gamecocks also have correlative betting value as a dog in a low total game (41), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover.

these have changed
GL