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msudogs
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Registered: Nov 2005
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Shriners Open

Matt McCarty, a pre-tournament price of 55-1, won his maiden PGA Tour event in just his third start on tour at 23 under and finished three strokes ahead of the field at the inaugural Black Desert Championship last weekend. McCarty won three times on the Korn Ferry Tour over the summer to earn the coveted “battlefield promotion” directly to the PGA Tour.

McCarty became the first player to win three times on the Korn Ferry Tour and then on the PGA Tour in the same season since Jason Gore in 2005.

He earns spots in The Sentry, the Masters and the PGA Championship, and, more immediately, played his way into this week’s Shriners Children’s Open, where he is priced at 40-1.

The favorite for this week’s Shriners is the man who has won this event in Las Vegas the last two years, Tom Kim (14-1), who is going for the three-peat last achieved in a PGA Tour event in 2011 when Steve Stricker won the John Deere Classic for a third consecutive year (2009-2011).

Speaking of the John Deere, that’s where Davis Thompson (25-1) cashed an outright winner for us earlier this summer for his first PGA Tour victory.

Canadians went 2-3 in this event behind Tom Kim last year as Adam Hadwin (35-1) and Taylor Pendrith (25-1) finished second and third, respectively.

Beau Hossler (30-1) followed up his playoff loss at the Sanderson Farms two weeks ago to Kevin Yu (60-1) with a respectable T-11 last week in Utah and finished seventh in this event last year. He is a combined 38 under over his last eight rounds.

Kurt Kitayama (30-1) is part of a local Las Vegas resident group that includes Maverick McNealy (45-1), Harry Hall, Doug Ghim (65-1) and several others.

Tom Hoge (33-1), Eric Cole (35-1), T-3 here last year, Keith Mitchell (35-1), third two weeks ago at the Sanderson Farms and the 54-hole overnight leader, and Seamus Power (35-1), another Vegas resident who is off two straight T-11 finishes, make up the next level of the market.

Stephan Jaeger (35-1) also cashed an outright winner for us at the Houston Open in March and was the 36-hole leader last week in Utah before finishing runner-up.

Cam Davis (40-1), T-7 here last year, like Hadwin, is also playing his first event since being snubbed for selection to the Presidents Cup.

Aside from defending champion Tom Kim, other former Shriners champions in this week’s field include Webb Simpson (90-1), Martin Laird (150-1) and Ryan Moore (175-1).

Old Post 10-16-24 10:18 PM
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The Shriners Children’s Open was founded as the Las Vegas Pro Celebrity Classic in 1983. At the time, the event had the highest purse on the PGA Tour of $750,000. The field will be playing for a slightly larger total purse of $8.4 million this week. The tournament was originally a 90-hole event before going to 72 holes in 2004. Many fans will know this event as the Las Vegas Invitational, which it was named from 1984-1999. It was also the site of Tiger Woods’ first PGA Tour win in 1996 when he defeated Davis Love III in a playoff. The tournament boasts an extensive list of major championship winners, including Tiger, Jim Furyk, Fuzzy Zoeller, Curtis Strange, Greg Norman, Paul Azinger, Davis Love III, Webb Simpson and Bryson DeChambeau.

Before TPC Summerlin took over as sole host in 2008, a variety of Las Vegas courses were played in the event, including TPC Las Vegas, Bear’s Best, Southern Highlands, Desert Inn (now Wynn), Las Vegas CC, Las Vegas National, Spanish Trail, Showboat (now Wildhorse) and Sunrise (now Stallion Mountain). Shriners Hospitals for Children took over the operation of the event in 2007.

Old Post 10-16-24 10:18 PM
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TPC Summerlin plays host this week. The course is located at the base of Red Rock Canyon in the community of Summerlin, which is about a 20-minute drive west of the Las Vegas Strip. The track was designed by Bobby Weed and Fuzzy Zoeller in 1991. It plays as a par-71 of 7,255 yards.

There are 92 bunkers (fifth most on tour) and four water hazards (in play on four holes.). TPC Summerlin is an exposed desert track with very few trees. The Bermuda fairways are of average width (36 yards) but undulating. The Bermuda rough is only about 2.25 inches high, so it is not all that penal, but it will take away the ability to spin approach shots closer to the pins. The course is a rare combination of Bermuda fairways and rough to go along with Bentgrass greens. The only other course on tour with that combination is Colonial Country Club, home of the Charles Schwab Challenge. The greens are large (7,400 square feet average — fourth largest on tour) and of modest speed (11.5 stimpmeter).

The track does play at around 2,700 feet of elevation (second highest on tour behind last week’s course at Black Desert Resort), so the ball flies about 3% farther than if at sea level and the course plays shorter than its listed distance of 7,255 yards due to not only the elevation but the firm fairways.

Each of the par-5s are typically reachable in two shots. Because of the course’s elevation, that also includes the 606-yard 13th hole. Six of the 11 par-4s are between 420-450 yards and rank among the easiest group of par-4s on tour.

The final four holes typically provide an exciting closing stretch. The 15th features a drivable par-4 at 341 yards. Hole 16 is a risk/reward par-5 that is reachable in two shots while the 17th is a dangerous par-3 that has water on two sides. The final hole is a strong par-4 that sits at 444 yards. Overall, there is a ton of swing potential for scoring in this stretch.

Old Post 10-16-24 10:20 PM
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Trends and Angles

Nine of the last 13 winners of the Shriners had finishes of T-16 or better at this event in a year before their win.

10 of the last 14 winners had a T-11 or better in their previous five tournaments leading up to their win.

10 of the last 13 winners were age 30 or younger.

13 of the last 13 winners had already won a PGA Tour event.

Old Post 10-16-24 10:20 PM
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Kurt Kitayama (30-1, DraftKings)

Kitayama ranked second in the field last week for Strokes Gained: Approach but finished T-25 due to a poor putting week.

He has missed three cuts here but seemingly looks like he knocked off the rust after nine weeks off.

Old Post 10-17-24 08:26 AM
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Beau Hossler (31-1, Circa Sports)

Hossler was a respectable 11th (fourth tee-to-green) last week in Utah after the disappointment of losing in a playoff two weeks ago to Kevin Yu and the Sanderson Farms.

He has finished seventh twice here at TPC Summerlin, including last year.

Old Post 10-17-24 08:28 AM
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Eric Cole (35-1, DraftKings)

Cole finished third here last year, closing with a final round of 62.

He finished just 16th two starts ago at the Sanderson Farms but was first for Strokes Gained: Approach and second for Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green.

Old Post 10-17-24 08:28 AM
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Harry Hall (45-1, DraftKings)

Hall played his college golf at UNLV and still resides in Las Vegas.

He has two top-15 finishes here in three appearances.

Old Post 10-17-24 08:28 AM
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