Bills (-2.5) @ Jets
Bills (3-2)
Bills scored 34-31-47 points in their wins; 10-20 in losses.
Last 2 games, Buffalo has converted 6 of 27 third down plays.
Bills scored 13 TD’s on first 26 drives, three TD’s on last 22 drives.
Team total: over 3-2
Opponents’ team total: under 3-2

Buffalo is 15-12 ATS in last 27 games as a road favorite.
Bills are 4-6 ATS in last ten games coming off a loss.
QB Allen is 71-37 as NFL starter.
Bills are 15-5-1 ATS in last 20 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Josh Allen completed only 9 of 30 passes LW; is he healthy?

Jets (2-3)
Jets fired their coach Tuesday; does it hurt their defense?
Jets scored 24-24 points in wins, 19-9-17 in losses.
Jets’ played in England Sunday, didn’t take their bye this week.
Team total: over 2-2-1
Opponents’ team total: under 3-2

Jets are 17-27 ATS last 44 games as an underdog.
Jets are 9-13 ATS in last 22 games as a home underdog.
Jets are 15-18 ATS last 33 games coming off a loss.
Jets are 6-10 ATS last 16 AFC East home games.
Rodgers is 161-88-1 as an NFL starter.

Buffalo won seven of last nine series games.
Bills lost 20-17/22-16 in last two meetings in New Jersey.
Under is 8-2 in last ten series games.

Things look really bad right now in New York, huh? After losing two games in a row and scoring just 26 points in the process, the Jets elected to move on from head coach Robert Saleh. Will it matter? Was he the problem? I guess we’ll see. However, let’s not act like there aren’t problems in Buffalo right now as well, as after last week’s loss at Houston, some of my most respected colleagues were calling for head coach Sean McDermott to be on the hot seat. The Bills scored just 30 points in their last two losses and QB Josh Allen was dinged up in the process.

Well, heading into what is becoming a very important game in terms of the AFC East standings, public bettors at DraftKings are loving Buffalo as the road favorite, with 78% on both the handle and bets on that side of the ledger. As I said earlier, I really prefer to back road favorites that deserve it. I’m not convinced about the Bills, as the questions I had about them going into 2024 are coming into play. Let’s look closely at a few different angles that I feel give New York a good shot here.

First, underdogs are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 of the Bills/Jets series at New York. Second, with QB Aaron Rodgers, who is 6-1 ATS as a home dog, under fire, the results since 2005 of veteran quarterbacks playing with their new teams at home are quite impressive, as they have gone 116-68 SU and 97-76-11 ATS (56.1%). These vet QBs are also on a 73-66 SU and 77-59-3 ATS run (56.6%) with their new teams coming off outright losses, veteran QBs have gone 73-66 SU and 77-59-3 ATS (56.6%). This trend dates back to 2016.

If it comforts you to rely on the recent history of Monday Night Football, NFL home underdogs on MNF are on a run of 12-10 SU and 14-7-1 ATS (66.7%) dating back to September ’21. Plus, Won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 33-31 SU but just 22-40-2 ATS (35.5%) in the last 64 MNF games not matching teams with identical records.

Road favorites are 8-0 ATS in NFL Week 6.

80% of bets are on Bills -1 at Jets at BetMGM

Breece Hall player props on Monday Night Football at BetMGM

▪️ 55.5 rushing yards
▪️ 24.5 receiving yards

99% of money is on the OVER for both props

Bills-Jets touchdown betting at BetMGM

Anytime Touchdown:

1. James Cook +125
2. Josh Allen +145
3. Breece Hall -105
4. Dalton Kincaid +250
5. Allen Lazard +250