49ers (-3) @ Seahawks
49ers (2-3)
49ers lost three of their last four games SU.
49ers are 0-2 on road, losing 23-17 at Vikings, 27-24 at Rams.
49ers are 15-12-1 ATS in last 28 games as a road favorite.
Team total: under 3-2
Opponents’ team total: over 3-1-1

49ers outscored last three opponents 57-20 in first half.
49ers were outscored 44-20 in 2nd half of last three games.
QB Purdy is 23-8 as an NFL starter.
San Francisco is 8-5-1 ATS last 14 NFC West road games.
49ers are 10-7 ATS in last 17 games coming off a loss.

Seahawks (3-2)
Seattle lost last two games, giving up 42-29 points.
QB’s they beat so far: Nix, Brissett, Thompson. Not great.
Seahawks are 6-3 ATS last nine games as a home underdog.
Team total: over 5-0
Opponents’ team total: over 4-1

QB Smith is 33-39 as an NFL starter, 21-20 with Seattle.
Seahawks are 3-6 ATS in last nine NFC West home games.
Seahawks are 18-14 in last 32 games coming off a loss.
Seattle has converted 11 of last 32 third down plays.
Over is 4-1 in their games this season.

49ers won last five series games (4-1 ATS)
SF won 31-13/21-13 in its last two visits to Seattle.
Under is 4-1-1 in last six meetings.

Both of these teams will come into this game hungry for a win. San Francisco has dropped three of its last four games, with last week’s home loss as a 7-point favorite against Arizona being especially disappointing. Meanwhile, Seattle also suffered a miserable loss last week, falling as a 7-point home favorite against the New York Giants. The Seahawks have now lost two in a row after having started 3-0. However, this game feels like it’s going to be a little more important to San Francisco. The 49ers are 2-3 on the season. That’s unacceptable for a team with Super Bowl aspirations. And if San Francisco wants a shot at home-field advantage in the playoffs, the wins need to start piling up soon.

The 49ers have had the recent head-to-head success in this matchup. San Francisco has won five games in a row against Seattle, and the team is 4-1 against the spread in those games. Kyle Shanahan will also feel pretty good about how his team matches up with the Seahawks. Seattle’s defense looked great against weak competition early in the year, but the team has an EPA per play allowed of 0.188 over the last two weeks. That’s a higher number than the Rams’ 0.165, which is the worst in football over the course of the entire season. That’s going to be trouble for Seattle, as San Francisco is ninth in the league in EPA per play (0.064) this season.

This really should be a game in which Brock Purdy, PFF’s second-ranked quarterback, gets this passing game going. Just two weeks ago, Jared Goff shredded this secondary to the tune of 18 for 18 on pass attempts with 292 yards and two touchdowns. I also don’t see much preventing Jordan Mason from getting going on the ground. He has rushed for 536 yards and three touchdowns this season, and the 49ers have rushed for at least 169 yards in five straight meetings with the Seahawks.

The 49ers should also be able to get some stops when it matters most here. Over the last four weeks, San Francisco is 13th in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (-0.047), so this unit has still been doing its job. That said, there’s really no reason to believe that the 49ers won’t be able to slow down a Seahawks team that hasn’t quite lived up to expectations on offense this year. Seattle’s offensive numbers are a little skewed from the shootout loss against Detroit.

If you don’t want to lay the points with the 49ers here, another option would be the Over. The Seahawks might have a highly-respected defensive coach, but we haven’t seen a good product on that side of the ball over the last two weeks. Not only did Goff light up the Seahawks, but Daniel Jones did the same. That’s why it’s easy to envision a scenario in which Purdy will put up some big numbers. And if Seattle ends up falling behind at any point, the team will be forced to lean into a pass-heavy approach. Given the weapons Geno Smith has at his disposal, that should mean good things for those looking for a high-scoring affair.