Jacksonville Jaguars at Chicago Bears (-2, 45)

The Jaguars (1-4) just picked up their first win of the season last week, outlasting the Colts 37-34 but failing to cover as 3.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Bears (3-2) have won two straight and just crushed the Panthers 36-10, easily covering as 4-point home favorites. This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with some early openers posting Jaguars -1 while other books posted Bears -1. Regardless of the opener, we’ve seen one-way movement in favor of Chicago as the Bears have risen to a 2-point neutral site favorite in London. Some shops are even inching up to Bears -2.5. Chicago is receiving 73% of spread bets and 83% of spread dollars, signaling both public and sharp support in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet split. Chicago has a big edge on defense, allowing just 17 PPG (5th) while the Jags are giving up 28.6 PPG (30th). Those looking to follow the sharp Bears move but looking for added protection in what might prove to a close game could also target Chicago on the moneyline at -135. International favorites are 35-10 (77%) straight up in games played outside of the United States. Sharps have also hit the over, raising the total up from 42 to 45. The over is receiving 60% of bets and 67% of dollars.

Arizona Cardinals at Green Bay Packers (-5, 47.5)

The Cardinals (2-3) just upset the 49ers 24-23, winning outright as 7.5-point road dogs. Similarly, the Packers (3-2) just held off the Rams 24-19, covering as 3-point road favorites. This line opened with Green Bay listed as a 5.5-point home favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite this 50/50 ticket split we’ve seen the Packers fall from -5.5 to -5. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the tickets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the number. So, based on the line move we can infer that respected money has sided with Arizona plus the points. Road dogs are 30-24 ATS (56%) this season and 533-449 ATS (54%) with a 5% ROI since 2018. Dogs getting 5-points or more are 19-6 ATS (76%) this season with a 44% ROI. Kyler Murray is 2-1 ATS as a dog this season and 27-15 ATS (64%) with a 23% ROI as a dog in his career. The Cardinals qualify as a “dog who can score system match” (24 PPG, 12th), thereby keeping pace or backdoor covering. Wiseguys have also hit the under, dropping the total from 51 to 47.5. The under is receiving 40% of bets and 44% of dollars, a sharp contrarian bet split. Weather could play a role here, as the forecast calls for low 50s, 10-15 MPH winds and possibly some rain at Lambeau Field.

Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5, 48) at New York Giants

The Bengals (1-4) just fell to the Ravens 41-38 in overtime, failing to cover as 2.5-point home dogs. On the other hand, the Giants (2-3) just shocked the Seahawks 29-20, winning outright as 7-point road dogs. This line opened with Cincinnati listed as an early 5.5-point road favorite. This number quickly got adjusted down to -4.5 and now we’re seeing the Bengals down to -3.5. Several books are even juicing up Giants +3.5 (-115), signaling a possible further dip down to the key number of 3. Essentially, all movement and liability has come down in favor of the Giants plus the points. This movement is especially notable because the public is hammering the Bengals (76% of spread bets), yet the sharp reverse line movement is siding with the unpopular home dog Giants. New York is one of the top contrarian plays of the week, receiving only 24% of spread bets in a nationally televised, heavily bet Sunday Night Football showdown. Primetime dogs are 126-101 ATS (56%) since 2020. Brian Daboll is 21-11 ATS (66%) as a dog as head coach of the Giants. Daniel Jones is 29-22 ATS (57%) as a dog. New York has the better defense, allowing 20.8 PPG (11th) while the Bengals are giving up 29 PPG (31st). The total opened at 45 and rose as high as 49 before some sharp under buyback dropped it back down to 48. The under is receiving 45% of bets and 53% of dollars. Primetime unders are 10-8 this season and 170-115 (60%) with a 15% ROI since 2019. When a primetime game has a total of 47 or more the under is 4-2 this season and 24-10 (71%) with a 28% ROI since 2022.

Indianapolis Colts (-1, 43) at Tennessee Titans

The Colts (2-3) just fell to the Jaguars 37-34 but managed to cover as a 3.5-point road dog. Conversely, the Titans (1-3) just secured their first win of the season, crushing the Dolphins 31-12 and winning outright as 2.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Indianapolis listed as a 1.5-point road favorite. The public thinks this line is way too short and they’re rushing to the window to back the Colts. However, despite receiving 73% of spread bets we’ve seen Indianapolis fall from -1.5 to -1. Some shops are even inching down toward a pick’em. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Tennessee, as the line is moving in their direction despite being the unpopular side receiving only 24% of spread bets. The Titans have value as a divisional dog (54% ATS since 2020), with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. Conference home dogs getting 4-points or less are 139-111 ATS (56%) with a 7% ROI since 2018. The Titans enjoy a notable “rest vs tired” advantage as they are coming off a bye while the Colts played Sunday on the road. The Titans also have buy-low value as a “bad” ATS team (1-3) against a sell-high “good” ATS team (4-1).