8:15 p.m. ET: New Orleans Saints at Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5, 43)

The Saints (2-2) have dropped two straight and just fell to the Falcons 26-24 but managed to cover as 3-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Chiefs (4-0) remain undefeated after taking down the Chargers 17-10 last week, pushing as 7-point road favorites.

This line opened with Kansas City listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. Sharps have jumped on the Saints plus the points, dropping New Orleans from +6.5 to +5.5. We’ve even seen this line fall as low as Saints +5 at times throughout the week. Essentially, all movement and liability has been toward New Orleans. The Saints are receiving roughly 60% of spread bets and dollars, signaling modest public support but also respected smart money in the form of a “Pro and Joe” support play. The next move will be critical and worth monitoring as we move toward kickoff. With the line currently sitting in “no man’s land” at 5.5, will we see it fall down to 5 on gameday, which would be further evidence of respected Saints money? Or see it tick back toward 6, which would signal late Chiefs support?

New Orleans matches several notable betting systems. Big dogs getting 5.5-points or more are 19-4 ATS (83%) with a 56% ROI this season. Derek Carr is 2-0 ATS as a road dog this season and 34-23 ATS (60%) as a road dog in his career. Road dogs are 30-23 ATS (57%) this season and 533-448 ATS (54%) with a 5% ROI since 2018. Primetime dogs are 126-100 (56%) with a 7% ROI since 2020. Patrick Mahomes is just 21-25 ATS (46%) as a home favorite. The Saints have classic buy-low value as a team on a two-game losing streak while the Chiefs are in a sell-high spot as they’ve won four straight and remain undefeated. Kansas City will be without starting WR Rashee Rice. who was placed on injured reserve with a knee injury.

Sharps have also hit the under here, dropping the total from 46 to 43. This downward movement is especially notable because the public is hammering the over (72% of bets), yet the total fell. This indicates sharp reverse line movement on the under, which is only receiving 28% of bets but 42% of dollars. Primetime unders are 9-8 this season and 169-115 (60%) with a 14% ROI since 2019. The forecast calls for partly cloudy skies and low 60s with mild 5 MPH winds at Arrowhead Stadium.

Player Prop to Consider

Noah Gray over 20.5 receiving yards (-110): Gray caught four passes for 40 yards in last week’s win over the Chargers. He was tied with Xavier Worthy for the second most targets in that game (4), trailing only Travis Kelce (9). With Rice injured and the Saints likely focusing on Kelce, Gray could enjoy some favorable matchups in the passing game. The Saints are allowing 233.8 passing yards per game, which ranks 24th in the NFL.