The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Astra Sharma vs. Karolina Muchova – Palermo
Rafael Nadal vs. Mariano Navone – Bastad
Muchova was one of the stories of the 2023 season, but she has struggled to stay healthy in 2024. Muchova has played only six tour-level matches, and she hasn’t really looked like herself in many of them. In this tournament alone, Muchova was pushed by qualifier Katarzyna Kawa in the opening round, nearly losing a first-set tiebreaker to her. Muchova then needed three sets to beat world No. 197 Noma Noha Akugue in the second round. That’s why I’m throwing Sharma +5.5 games into a two-leg parlay. Sharma has been looking really sharp at this tournament, as she earned a straight-set win over Anna Blinkova and then edged out Ajla Tomjlanovic in a three-set match. Those are two really strong opponents, so Sharma’s game should be ready for Muchova. Of course, the Czech should find a way to advance here, but I don’t think that’s a given. And I’d simply be stunned if she wins this match by six or more games.
For the second leg of this parlay, I’m playing Nadal to beat Navone. I have backed Navone a ton this year. He’s a fantastic clay-court competitor and it’s nice to see him with a top-40 ranking next to his name. However, Navone is going to have his work cut out for him against Nadal. The Spaniard is starting to play some really solid tennis, and I’m just not sure I see him losing to this type of player. Navone is a good baseline player, capable of extending rallies but also playing aggressive tennis. However, I’m not sure he hits a heavy enough ball to make Nadal uncomfortable from the baseline. The Nadal forehand will be the biggest weapon on the court in this match, and I’m not sure Navone’s ability to return will translate here. Navone breaks frequently on clay because he gets balls back and resets the point. But Nadal is capable of quickly giving himself an edge in rallies. All in all, I just think Nadal is a little too strong for Navone. And Navone might be great in the point construction department, but that won’t be an advantage he’ll have against the King of Clay.
PARLAY: Sharma +5.5 Games + Nadal ML (-101 – 1.5 units)
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07-18-24 11:02 PM |
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