The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Tommy Paul vs. Carlos Alcaraz
I already have a future on Paul to win the quarter, so I need him to win this match. That said, I’m not personally playing this match. However, while I usually don’t like to give picks out for matches I’m already on, I felt the need to push myself to write something on this one. I just love Paul’s chances in this match, so I really think he’s worth a play on the game spread and a little moneyline sprinkle.
It’s just hard to ignore how bad Alcaraz has looked at this tournament. The defending Wimbledon champion and 2024 French Open winner nearly lost to Frances Tiafoe two matches ago. He then followed that performance up with a sloppy four-set win over Ugo Humbert. In that match, Alcaraz was looking at his box and telling them that he had no idea what to do against the Frenchman. The issue with Alcaraz right now is that his serve has gotten away from him a bit. And it’s hard to breeze through matches at Wimbledon without easily racking up holds. And that’s especially true when you’re facing a guy like Paul, who is one of the best returners on tour. Paul should give himself some chances to break here, and the American has also been serving well in Wimbledon.
Paul has also given Alcaraz a lot of trouble in the past, as he’s 2-2 against the Spaniard in his career. The most recent loss was a very tight battle in Cincinnati, which was also played in very fast conditions. It’s just not often that Alcaraz plays somebody that can come close to matching his athleticism, but Paul is pretty close in that regard. He’s one of the fastest players on tour, so he’s going to make Alcaraz play a lot of extra shots. That could lead to a high unforced error count. One of the reasons Alcaraz has been worse in 2024 than he was in 2023 is his shot selection, and this feels like a match in which he could make a lot of mistakes.
Bet: Paul +5.5 Games (-138 – 1.5 units) + Paul ML (+333 – 0.5 units)
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07-09-24 08:36 AM |
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