The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Market Moves 7/07
1:35 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals (-110, 9) at Washington Nationals
This is the rubber match of a three-game series. The Cardinals (46-42) won the opener 7-6 in extra innings, taking care of business as -175 road favorites. Then the Nationals (42-47) bounced back with a 14-6 win yesterday, cashing as -135 home favorites. In this afternoon’s series finale, the Cardinals start righty Kyle Gibson (6-3, 3.88 ERA) and the Nationals go with lefty DJ Herz (1-2, 4.67 ERA). This line opened with St. Louis listed as a -130 road favorite and Washington a +110 home dog. The public is leaning toward laying the chalk with St. Louis. However, despite receiving 59% of moneyline bets we’ve seen the Cardinals dip from -130 to -110. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Nationals, as the line is moving in their favor (+110 to -105) despite being the unpopular bet. The Nationals are receiving 41% of moneyline bets but 48% of moneyline dollars, signaling a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Washington has correlative betting value as a dog in a high total game (9), with the more expected runs scored leading to more variance and upset opportunities. Gibson has given up 8 earned runs over 9 innings pitched in his last two starts. Herz has a 3.15 ERA at home compared to 9.00 on the road. The Cardinals are only hitting .222 against lefties this season, ranking 29th in MLB.
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07-07-24 07:00 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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1:40 p.m. ET: Chicago White Sox at Miami Marlins (-140, 8)
This is the rubber match of a three-game series. The White Sox (26-65) stole the opener 3-2, cashing as +120 road dogs. Then the Marlins (31-58) clawed back with a 4-3 win yesterday, cashing as +130 home dogs. In this afternoon’s series finale, the White Sox start righty Jonathan Cannon (1-2, 4.62 ERA) and the Marlins tap fellow righty Edward Cabrera (1-2, 7.17 ERA). This line opened with Miami listed as a -125 home favorite and Chicago a +110 road dog. Pros have pounced on the Marlins laying short chalk at home, driving Miami up from -125 to -140. The Marlins are receiving 55% of moneyline bets and 62% of moneyline dollars, indicating a slight public lean but also respected sharp action in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split as well as a 15-cent steam move in their favor. Miami has the better offense, hitting .231 with 309 runs scored compared to Chicago hitting .222 with 291 runs scored. The Marlins have value as an Interleague favorite and correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the lack of familiarity and fewer amount of expected runs scored benefiting and more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win. The White Sox are 10-36 on the road, the worst road record in MLB.
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07-07-24 07:00 PM |
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