The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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4:15 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers (-105, 8.5)
The Dodgers (54-35) won last night’s series opener 8-5, cashing as -200 home favorites. In this late afternoon rematch, the Brewers (52-37) turn to righty Freddy Peralta (6-4, 3.83 ERA) and the Dodgers go with lefty James Paxton (7-2, 4.28 ERA). This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a -115 home favorite and Milwaukee a +105 road dog. The public can’t believe the mighty Dodgers are laying such a short price at home and they’re rushing to the window to back Los Angeles. However, despite receiving 74% of moneyline bets we’ve seen the Dodgers fall from -115 to -105. In other words, smart money has come down on the Brewers (+105 to -105) and moved this game to a virtual pick’em. Milwaukee is only receiving 26% of moneyline bets but 34% of moneyline dollars, a notable sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. The Brewers are 5-1 in Peralta’s last six starts. He has a 3.49 ERA on the road compared to 4.20 at home. Paxton posted a 6.46 ERA in five June starts, allowing 17 earned runs in 23.2 innings pitched.
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07-06-24 07:08 PM |
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