The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Cardinals First Inning Moneyline +245 (Play to +225)
Starting Pitchers: Sonny Gray vs. Patrick Corbin
I've gone back and forth on how to play this game, with the traditional YRFI at -110, the Cardinals to score a run at +170, and the Cardinals first inning moneyline all projecting as values based on my model.
I prefer taking the bigger swing — for half of a unit — on the juicier pick, though. This is mostly based on fading Patrick Corbin, who has a 5.49 ERA overall and 5.29 ERA his first time through the order.
While the Cardinals are bad against lefties on the season, much of that was without catcher Willson Contreras. Contreras has excellent platoon splits against southpaws and a 155 wRC+ overall, and is back to batting third in their lineup.
On the other side, Sonny Gray has a 2.98 overall ERA that drops to 1.75 his first time through the order, so the Nationals chances aren't great at getting him to him early — hence taking the moneyline.
You could also risk .55 units to win .5 on the regular YRFI along with the moneyline play — that way, if the Nats are the only team to score, you break even.
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07-05-24 07:11 PM |
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