SEA Mariners vs CLE Guardians NRFI
•27.77 algo score
•76.08% NRFI probability
•(-120) FanDuel

On it

NRFI -125 (Play to -135)

Starting Pitchers: Bryan Woo vs. Tanner Bibee

Mariners starter Bryan Woo has made six starts this season. The earliest anyone has scored a run against him has been in the fifth inning. That gives him an ERA of 0.00 his first time through the order.

While that obviously won't last forever, it's still a great sign for the NRFI.

He's taking on a Cleveland team that's roughly league average against righties in one of the best pitcher's parks in baseball.

On paper, the Mariners are a bit more of a risk here, but they also have an exceedingly difficult matchup. Tanner Bibee's 3.94 overall ERA dips below 2.00 his first time through the order, with a similar (though less pronounced) dip to his xFIP.

Seattle is also a roughly average offense against righties and not particularly top-heavy — at least until Julio Rodriguez can regain his prior form — making them more unthreatening today.

NRFI -130 (Play to -145)

Starting Pitchers: Taj Bradley vs. Joe Ryan

Taj Bradley's 4.23 overall ERA is mediocre, but there's reason to think he's actually been better than that. Both his xFIP and SIERA are more than a full run lower through seven starts — a small enough sample size where luck/variance could be playing a considerable role.

He's even better — by any metric –early in games, with his ERA falling to 2.60 and his xFIP dropping to 1.71 the first time through the order.

Joe Ryan doesn't have as extreme splits, but his overall xFIP of 3.32 and first-time-through-the-order mark of 3.15 are both very strong.

Both offenses also hit righties about 10% worse than lefties, another strong indicator in this righty-on-righty pitching matchup. Grab this before the 7.5-run total falls even more — it opened at 8, and the under 7.5 lines are somewhat juiced already.