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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Manchester United’s loss was massive in terms of the title race, moving from +400 to +1200. Probably an overreaction, but dropping points to Huddersfield while Man City keeps rolling is not ideal at all. Tottenham’s win over Liverpool propelled them past Man United in the title race, while Liverpool have dropped to +5000 (and that’s probably generous).
Unfortunately Harry Kane will be out for Tottenham this weekend due to injury, which has affected the odds– Spurs have moved from +255 to +270 to win outright while Man United’s odds to win moved from +120 to +108. I was actually going to avoid betting this game until news of his absence, and now I think there’s value on the draw at +240 odds. Man United are 4-0-0 at home this season while Tottenham are 4-0-0 on the road, and we’ve seen decent betting activity on both teams to win. The total has dropped from 2.5 to 2.25, mostly due to Harry Kane not playing at all, which is great news for a draw bet. I would have leaned toward Spurs to win on the road, but without Kane I believe this game ends in a 1-1 draw.
My other value play for the week will be another draw, this time between Brighton and Southampton at +222 odds. We have a very low total of just 2 goals, and the 3-way moneyline is very, very tight– another bonus for the draw. While I would have likely bet on this draw anyways, looking back historically shows that this strategy is very profitable. When the total sits at just 2 goals and the draw line is between +200 and +225, it has a 43% ROI and +25 units won. Take the draw +222 between Southampton and Brighton this weekend and hope for 0-0 or 1-1
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10-28-17 12:36 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Fresh from the midweek exertions in the Carabao Cup and the draw that took 48 years to finish, United and Spurs face each other in a massive fixture on Saturday noon in the Premier League – which could truly swing the momentum one way or the other.
Manchester United dusted off the cobwebs and put in a professional performance taking the game to Swansea City and winning it 2-0, thanks to Jesse Lingard, booking their place in the quarter-final against Bristol City away from home in the second week of December. In the Premier League however, the Red Devils cannot afford any more setbacks given how their nearest rivals are faring at the moment and Saturday’s game is probably one of the most important fixtures they will be involved in since Mourinho’s took over the reins.
Tottenham Hotspur, after a start which has been very solid yet typically under the radar, the result against Liverpool was a statement made to the rest of the challengers. Spurs absolutely pounced on a Liverpool side littered with mistakes at the back and made a meal out of the visitors scoring four – with Harry Kane leading from the front at Wembley as they went level on points with Manchester United on the league table.
In midweek, the North London outfit suffered a blip – in the form of a defeat to West Ham after leading the game 2-0 at one stage followed by the post-match comments from Pochettino that attracted a fair bit of criticism from sections of media and the supporters. Whether that will distract Spurs remains to be seen – but the visitors definitely need a positive result at Old Trafford to keep building towards a strong title challenge they look to pose in the forthcoming weeks and months.
TEAM NEWS
Mourinho confirmed after the cup win at Swansea that Phil Jones has declared himself available for the game, having been withdrawn at Huddersfield through injury the previous week, while fellow defenders Eric Bailly and Marcos Rojo are thought to be close to returning to full fitness. There is no further news yet on midfielders Paul Pogba, Michael Carrick and Marouane Fellaini, although Mourinho could give a further update on the current injury situation in his pre-match press conference on Friday.
For the visitors, Danny Rose and Mousa Dembele could feature after returning from injury in their Carabao Cup defeat at home to West Ham United, a game for which boss Mauricio Pochettino made seven changes, but midfielders Erik Lamela and Victor Wanyama are expected to be sidelined once again.
INTERESTING NUMBERS
United have won 32 of the teams’ 50 Premier League encounters, including the last three in a row at Old Trafford.
Tottenham have won their last 6 away matches (Premier League).
Manchester Utd have kept a clean sheet in 5 of their last 7 home matches against Tottenham in all competitions.
PREDICTION
Manchester United have not lost at Old Trafford in the last 21 games in the Premier League. Spurs have won their last 6 fixtures on the road. Immovable object versus unstoppable force, you say?
Manchester United 1-1 Tottenham Hotspur
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10-28-17 09:50 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Arsenal welcome Swansea City to the Emirates needing to win. While they decisively beat Everton last weekend, they have matches away to Manchester City and Tottenham upcoming and need to pick up as many points as possible before then. Swansea will hope to turn their need for points into something they can exploit.
After their disappointing 2-1 loss to Watford, Arsenal turned things around with their best performance of the season in their 5-2 battering of Everton. The Gunners cut the Toffees apart time after time at Goodison Park to pick up their first league away win of the season. They’ll hope to carry that form into this match and continue their strong run of form at home. They have yet to drop a point at Emirates Stadium this season and have not conceded there since opening day. They will see the match against Swansea as a good opportunity to continue their form.
Swansea come into this match with only one win in their last six matches and four goals scored in those six matches, including being held scoreless three times. The Swans have struggled to get any form of coherent attack going this season. They have averaged fewer shot per game than any other team in the league so far, according to Whoscored.com. If they are going to be a test for Arsenal, they’ll have to find a way to wake their dormant attack.
TEAM NEWS
Arsenal will continue to be without a few of their key squad players for this match. David Ospina, Danny Welbeck Shkodran Mustafi, Calum Chambers, and Santi Cazorla will all be missing out through injury, according to Physioroom.com.
Swansea will be without a few of their key staring XI players for this one. Wilfired Bony, Renato Sanches, and Kyle Bartley will all be missing this match, while Martin Olsson will undergo a late fitness test and is a doubt for the match, according to Physioroom.com.
PREDICTION
Arsenal will likely win this one. They have problems away from home, but they’ve been good at the Emirates this season. On top of that Swansea have been bad overall. It’s hard to see Swansea getting anything out of this.
Prediction: 2-0 Arsenal
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10-28-17 09:58 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Chelsea travel to the South Coast this weekend to face an improving Bournemouth team. They have yet to hit top form and are already behind the pace in their title defence, but the last week has provided them with positive momentum heading into November. Antonio Conte’s men dominated this fixture last season winning both meetings between the two clubs. In the corresponding fixture, the Blues won 3-1 with Adam Smith (OG), Eden Hazard and Marcos Alonso on the scoresheet for them, while Josh King netted for the home side.
Bournemouth have had a poor start to the season and find themselves in the bottom three at this early stage. Like Chelsea, they have built some momentum over the last seven days with back-to-back victories. Last weekend, they earned three points away from home with an assured performance against Stoke City. A win away from home in the Premier League shouldn’t be looked down on and Eddie Howe will be delighted to have achieved that at the Bet365 Stadium. They then qualified for the quarter-finals of Carabao Cup with a win over Middlesbrough and that competition offers a real chance of winning a trophy for the Cherries if they take it seriously. They won’t be expected to win this weekend, but it is crucial that they deliver a good performance on Saturday.
The Blues are currently positioned in fourth and they will be hoping for a run of wins to close the gap on the sides above them. Manchester City are already nine points clear of the champions and playing some incredible football. It looks difficult for Antonio Conte’s team to retain their trophy at this stage, but they have a lot of quality and they remain a force at the top of the division. There would have been greater concerns if they had lost to Watford last weekend, but they turned it around thanks to a cameo from Michy Batshuayi. Chelsea then followed this up with a narrow victory over Everton in the Carabao Cup. It is important to retain that momentum with another win this weekend.
TEAM NEWS
Jermain Defoe is a major doubt for this weekend, but Callum Wilson could make his first Premier League appearance of the season after making his comeback during the week. Brad Smith, Tyrone Mings and Adam Federici remain on the sidelines for the Cherries.
VERDICT
This is going to be a good test of Chelsea and their title credentials as Bournemouth are in a good run of form. The home side go into this weekend with nothing to lose and all the pressure will be on the champions. Although Antonio Conte’s men have been winning matches, they haven’t been delivering dominant performances and their defence remains an issue. They haven’t kept a clean sheet for over a month and that is very unusual for a team coached by Conte. He will be frustrated with that, but the absence of Kante is partly to blame. No other midfielder in the squad can carry out the role that he has made his own since moving to England. The Blues should have enough in attack to win the game, but the home side should get on the score-sheet.
Bournemouth 1-2 Chelsea
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10-28-17 10:44 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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The Premier League is becoming a league of reunions of star managers and their assistants. Last season it was Jose Mourinho and Aitor Karanka. This season it is Jurgen Klopp and David Wagner. Klopp’s Liverpool will host Wagner’s Huddersfield on Saturday for the first league match between the two sides in almost 45 years. The two teams are coming from two very unexpected results in the last game week. Liverpool may have expected a tough game at Spurs but not the hiding they received, while Huddersfield might have dreamt of holding off Mourinho’s United for as long as possible but not of winning the match.
For Liverpool Saturday’s game is a must-win. Yes, it is only a league game and not a cup game but Liverpool need to win on Saturday to lift the pall of gloom that has descended on the club and its fans since last Sunday. The Reds have blown hot and cold throughout the early part of this season. Just when it seemed that they had put the early-season jitters behind them as they thrashed NK Maribor by seven goals, they slumped to another big defeat this season. There are huge shadows of doubt over Liverpool’s defense and their midfield is also not as good as last season. The Reds need to win the majority of their games between now and the end of the year if they wish to be serious contenders for top-four spots. This is why Liverpool need to win against a newly promoted side with a shoestring budget.
David Wagner has steered Huddersfield into the Premier League despite the lack of resources and so far, they are holding their own. They were one of the favorites for relegation at the start of the season and if someone had told them that they would be sitting just below Liverpool by the 10th game week, they would have laughed. And yet, that’s where they are. Wagner’s team are fast and sturdy. They showed last week that they can absorb attack after attack from opponents and then counter at a furious speed. While the Terriers are not expected to get anything from Saturday’s game but they are definitely going to make it extremely tough for the Reds.
INTERESTING STATS
Few teams in England can boast of having defeated Liverpool more times than having been beaten by them. Huddersfield are one of those. In 75 matches between these two sides in all competitions, the Terriers have won 31, drawn 17, and lost 27. At Anfield, Huddersfield’s record is 15W, 13L, 10D.
However, all those victories came a long time back. The last meeting between the two sides was a FA Cup tie in December 1999, which Liverpool won 0-2 at Huddersfield.
In fact, the last time Huddersfield beat Liverpool was in November 1959 and the last time they achieved that feat at Anfield was in August 1956.
Despite their heroic victory at home versus Manchester United, Huddersfield are not proving to be great travellers this season. They have not scored a single goal in their last three away matches.
THE VERDICT
It might be a reunion between two old friends but Saturday’s game is extremely important – at least for Jurgen Klopp. He is not going to tell his team to go easy on his friend’s team. Huddersfield’s pressing might allow Liverpool a bit of a space that they generally do not find against smaller teams but their pace will also test the Reds’ fragile defense. However, given the gulf in the two sides’ inherent qualities, Liverpool should win on Saturday.
Liverpool 2 – 1 Huddersfield
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10-28-17 11:10 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Manchester United vs. Tottenham betting: Spurs’ journey
When Sir Alex Ferguson was managing at Old Trafford, his pre-game talk when facing Spurs was often very simple: “Lads, it’s Tottenham.”
The superiority the ex-United manager saw in his side in comparison to the Tottenham of yesteryear was undeniable. The story was later recounted by Roy Keane in his autobiography, praising his manager for understanding his ability to see the difference in class between the two.
With Tottenham’s current squad, one would imagine that Mourinho’s team talk will hold a much different message.
Spurs’ recent rise from mid-table obscurity to a team consistently fighting for a top-four spot, if not the title is a credit to all at the club.
Meanwhile, United have been in rebuild since Sir Alex Ferguson’s retirement, only this season looking as though Premier League success is feasible since the manager’s departure.
Yet they have shown recently that there are chinks in their armour. United’s most recent performances have been below par and the loss against Huddersfield was on the horizon.
Some were quick to praise United after their draw against Liverpool, detailing the performance as a classic ‘Mourinho-like’ defensive display. This is not the case. They were lucky to come away with a point - based on expected goals statistics, a fair result would have been a 2-0 Liverpool win.
Can Manchester United bounce back from their recent poor performances and send a message to the rest of the league by beating a Spurs side that have looked as though they could challenge for the title once again? Or will Mourinho go for his ‘tried and tested’ big-game defensive approach that almost proved costly at Anfield?
Manchester United vs. Tottenham: Aerial superiority
Whilst United have looked below par recently, they can take solace in their ability to win aerial duels; a skill that may give them an edge on Saturday.
This season, Manchester United have scored six goals from set pieces, no other team has scored more in the Premier League. Meanwhile, Tottenham only win 15.4 aerial duels per game, the third lowest in the league.
The likes of Lukaku, Matic and Fellaini should be a cause for concern for Mauricio Pochettino. Set pieces could be United’s best chance of getting the vital goal to win the game, particularly seeing as Tottenham have only conceded four goals from open play this season.
Manchester United vs. Tottenham betting: Home advantage?
Whilst United may have home field advantage, they may almost wish that the game was being played at Wembley, where Spurs’ record is worse than their imperious away form.
In fact, Tottenham are only one of two sides to win all of their away Premier League games this season, including convincing wins at Huddersfield (who most recently defeated Mourinho’s United ) and Everton.
Whilst Spurs’ away form has been a high note, Manchester United’s home form has been similarly impressive, winning all of their games at Old Trafford in the Premier League this season, winning by four goals in three of the four.
With Spurs’ current winning run and United’s recent struggles, Saturday may be the perfect time for Mauricio Pochettino’s men to make the long trip to Manchester.
Tottenham are handicapped at 0 and +0.5 at odds of 2.010*. Whilst it is likely to be a cagey affair and goals should be few and far between (Manchester United have conceded the joint-fewest and Tottenham have conceded the third fewest in the Premier League this season), Tottenham’s current form could see them return to North London with three points.
Whilst it may be a tight game, if Tottenham can grab a goal early on then Mourinho’s defensive style in big games will have to change. Over 2.5 odds of 2.060* could be a smart bet if Spurs can break down United’s defence early on, leaving United to open up their play.
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10-28-17 11:12 AM |
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