playoff game of the year
5* colts

After devising a game plan that completely shut down Denver in a 24-13 Colts win last week – and led to the termination of the Broncos’ entire coaching staff – Indianapolis head man Chuck Pagano sets his sights on even bigger game: New England’s implacable, steely-eyed Bill Belichick. And while those who stalk ‘The Hoodie’ on the turf of his own Gillette Stadium hood seldom succeed in bagging the prize, our database doesn’t hesitate to recommend a play on Pagano’s team this evening. For openers, conference title game losers from the previous year (Patriots) have found it extremely diffi cult reversing their losing ways, going 2-11 SU and 3-10 ATS, including 0-9 SU and 1-8 ATS when facing .722 or greater opponents. Belichick himself may have amassed a 194-73 SU record since taking over at New England 15 seasons ago, but he owns just a 5-3 SU and 3-5 ATS slate in championship affairs, including fi ve straight pointspread failures in his last fi ve games. He is also 0-5 ATS in title games after scoring 24 or more points in divisional round games, and 0-5 ATS off three spread losses in a row when facing greater-than .666 foes. Meanwhile, conference championship contenders like Indy
that arrive off a road win preceded by a victory at home are 8-4 SU and 10-2 ATS since 1998, including 6-0 ATS as an underdog of 4 or more points. Patriot backers are still buzzing over Tom Brady’s 367-yard, 4-TD performance against Baltimore but Colts QB Andrew Luck seems to save his best for big games, going 5-1 SUATS as an underdog in his NFL career versus opponents with a win percentage of more than .750. As for the seldom-mentioned Indianapolis defense, they gave up only 288 yards to the Broncos and have held two of their last three opponents to season-low yards. Hey, we’d actually like the Colts to pull the outright upset here if not for the fact that New England is 10-0 SU in its last 10 games versus AFC South opponents. Still, we can’t back a ‘leaking oil’ favorite like the Patriots that’s been outgained in each of their last three games – and not when over half of the 33 teams in this round who put 34 or more points on the scoreboard in a divisional round victory fell short of the Super Bowl, going 16-17 SU and 10-22-1 ATS. With Indy HC Pagano a solid 22-7 SU and 21-7-1 ATS in games with a posted O/U total of 45 or more points, we’ll take the dog in this closer-than-expected slugfest.

Championship Trends
By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com

When it comes to the playoffs, the ‘final four’ has a magical aura. Whether it’s March Madness, the college football playoffs or pro football, it’s what captivates fans the majority of the time.

The NFL’s version of the ‘Final Four’ kicks off with Sunday’s Championship Games where surprises aplenty have certainly been the buzzword.

That’s confirmed by the fact that underdogs have managed to pull off upsets fifteen times in 48 title games since the 1990 season, the most recent being the Baltimore Ravens’ victory over the New England Patriots at Foxboro in 2013, and the NY Giants’ win at the San Francisco 49ers in 2012, when both teams went on to capture the coveted Super Bowl.

Let’s take a quick look at what’s worked and what hasn’t in the Championship Games, because when it comes to handicapping games at this stage of the season, we can certainly use every edge imaginable.

Note: all results are either ATS (against the spread) or SU (straight up) and are since the 1990 season, unless noted otherwise.

BEEN THERE, DONE THAT

Three of the four head coaches own the luxury of mentoring teams in Championship Games – namely New England’s Bill Belichick, Seattle’s Pete Carroll and the Green Bay Packers Mike McCarthy.

Carroll and McCarthy rode their only title game appearances to the Super Bowl, winning and covering the spread in each of their championship games.

Belichick brings a 5-3 SU and 3-5 ATS slate in championship affairs, including 5 straight point-spread failures in his last five games. He is also 0-5 ATS in title games after scoring 24 or more points in divisional round games.

WHAT A RUSH

Despite the no-huddle, fast-break passing attacks gaining favor in the NFL these days, ask any head coach and he’ll tell you running the football is tantamount to success in the league. This is especially true during the playoffs.

It’s no coincidence that since the Giants’ 21-17 win over the Patriots in Super Bowl XLVI that 22 of the last 28 straight-up playoff winners rushed the ball for 100 or more yards in the victory.

In fact, teams who have managed to outrush their opponent are 22-12 SU and 22-11-1 ATS in title games. The six teams who managed to rush for more than 165 yards (1997 Green Bay Packers, 1999 Denver Broncos, 2000 Tennessee Titans, 2006 Seattle Seahawks, 2007 Chicago Bears and 2011 Pittsburgh Steelers) won and covered all six contests.

While all four of this week’s combatants average more than 100 rushing yards per game on the season, only the Seahawks surrender less than 100 running yards per contest.

The Packers surrender the most yards on the ground, allowing 121.4 YPG.

IT’S WHAT’S TRENDING

Conference championship teams off a road win (Indianapolis) that was preceded by a home win, are 8-4 SU and 10-2 ATS since 1998, including 6-0 ATS as an underdog of 4 or more points.

10 of 15 championship games with a total set at 46 or more points have played over the total.

New England is 10-0 SU in its last 10 games versus AFC South opponents.

Seattle is 5-0 SU and ATS in its last 5 home games versus NFC North opponents.

Colts QB Andrew Luck is 5-1 SU and ATS as an underdog in his NFL career versus opponents with a win percentage of more than .750.

NFL: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

We’re down to the 'Final Four' in the NFL Playoffs with this weekend’s Conference Championship.

The first game Sunday features the defending Super Bowl Champion Seahawks hosting the Green Bay Packers. The Seahawks earned their spot powering past Panthers 31-17 cashing as 13.5 point chalk. The Packers advanced to the NFC Championship with a 26-21 victory over Cowboys but failed at the betting window as 5.5 point favorite. The finale has Colts off a 24-13 upset of Broncos as 9.5 point underdogs visiting Patriots who squeaked past Ravens 35-31 but could not cover the 7 point spot.

Hard to quibble with Seahawks, Patriots opening touchdown favorites. Seahawks with it's nasty defense back on track have won 7 straight (6-0-1 ATS) allowing a messily 8.0 points/game. Seahawks thriving at CenturyLink Field this campaign going 8-1 SU, 6-2-1 ATS scoring 26.7 per/game while giving up a stingy 15.6 per/contest head into the NFC Championship with an impressive 35-9 SU record at home, profitable 31-12-1 mark against the betting line under Pete Carroll's guidance. Seattle kicked off the season with a 36-16 rout of Green Bay at CenturyLink Field easily covering the 4.5 point spot.

Patriots seeking a sixth Super Bowl appearance in the Belichick/Brady era won 11-of-13 (8-5 ATS) down the stretch with a winning margin of 13.0 points/game. Racking up 33.2 points/game while giving up 18.3 the Patriots were 8-1 (5-4 ATS) at Gillette Stadium this season with the only loss being a meaningless regular-season finale vs Buffalo. The Patriots bring to the table a 24-4 (17-11 ATS) stretch in front of it's frenzied crowd with an average winning margin of 11.9 points/game. Patriots spanked Indianapolis 42-20 as 3.5 point road underdogs in Week 11.

When handicapping these 'Put-Up' or 'Go-Home' games there are a couple of interesting trends that you should be aware of. Over the past 14 years home teams in the Championship round are 13-15 ATS with 16 'Over', 10 'Under' and 2 Push. Splitting numbers by conference, NFC home teams are 6-8 ATS, 8-4-2 O/U, the AFC troops 7-7 ATS, 8-6 O/U. Conference Championship Home favorites off a 14 or more point win in the Divisional round are 2-5 ATS (Seahawks). Conference Championship Road Underdogs off a 10 or more point win in the Divisional round are 10-5 ATS (Colts).

Our trusted database also chips in these betting nuggets:

Patriots have a 3-7 ATS slide in second season, 0-5 ATS skid in conference championship games
Patriots 8-3 ATS vs a team with a winning record this season

Colts 0-3 ATS vs Patriots w/Luck taking snaps
Colts 5-5-1 ATS on the campaign vs a team with a winning record
Colts 1-3 ATS last four on the road in post season

Seahawks have a 6-2 ATS stretch in post season
Seahawks 5-2-1 ATS vs a team with a winning record this year

Packers 3-2 ATS L5 post season road games
Packers 5-2-1 ATS vs a team with a winning record this year
Packers have a 1-4 ATS skid playing in the Pacific Time Zone