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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
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Cnotes Sunday's MLB & WNBA Best Bets !
Pitchers Report - July
June 30, 2012
Firecrackers and the MLB All-Star game signal the month of July. It also signifies the start of the 2nd half of the MLB campaign. The key to each and every team's fortune lies on the pitching staff. Can they sustain or will they fold like a deck of cards? Stay tuned. What we do know is certain pitchers love hurling this time of the season while others tend to get lit up like a roman candle on the 4th of July.
Listed below are hurlers that have enjoyed a two-to-one or better success ratio in team starts the last three seasons during the month of July. On the flip side, we've also listed pitchers that struggle in July team starts, winning 33% percent or less of their efforts. To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each July over the last three years.
I’ll be back next month with August’s Good Month Pitchers. Until then, enjoy
GOOD MONTH PITCHERS
Beckett, Josh: 10-2
Notes - Beckett returns after going on the disabled listed on June 11th with shoulder inflammation. The Red Sox right-hander's season has mirrored that of his team. Sometimes brilliant, sometimes dreadful and sometimes injured. If Boston is going to secure a wild card spot and fight for the AL East lead, they will need the Beckett of old starting this month, with a sharp breaking pitches complimented by spotting the fastball on the corners.
Buehrle, Mark: 12-4
Notes - The Miami left-hander has gotten a lot heat for his record, but the numbers tell a different story. Buehrle leads Marlins starting pitchers in almost every positive category and his peripheral numbers compare almost exactly with how he pitched in Chicago. What has hurt Buehrle more than anything is a lack of run support. The way he holds down lefty hitters (.215 batting average), if the Miami bats start to score runs, July should be terrific like usual for the Missouri native.
Burnett, A. J.: 10-5
Notes - Some people are just not made for the Big Apple and quite possibly, Burnett is one of those types. After three undistinguished seasons with the Yankees, A.J. is having a career year with Pittsburgh. Maybe it's the cool necklace the 35-year old veteran is wearing, but his batting average allowed and WHIP numbers are his best since he was a Blue Jay in 2007. More than anything, Burnett has regained his confidence and he loves PNC Park, where he has a smokin' 1.11 ERA.
Cain, Matt: 11-5
Notes - The San Francisco pitcher signed a large contract earlier this year and is making the front office look like it made a wise decision. Cain is on pace to shatter his career win total of 14 in 2009 and as July starts, opposing batters are below the Mendoza Line at .195 (batting average) against. Though his velocity is the same, he's averaging a strikeout an inning, which is his highest mark as a major-leaguer.
Hamels, Cole: 12-5
Notes - As bad as Philadelphia has been this season, just think where they would be without Cole Hamels. The port-sider has been remarkably consistent for a Phillies offense that has yo-yo tendencies. Hamels is already two-thirds of the way to his career-high in wins of 15 and having survived June (ordinarily his worst month), he and the Phillies should make a move the next 31 days.
Johnson, Josh: 11-3
Notes - It has been coming together for the 6'7" Johnson, whose made five consecutive quality starts and is 4-2 with a nifty 2.56 ERA and a 51/17 KW ratio since May 4. After finding a lot of bats to start the year, the hard-throwing Johnson has been able to spot his fastball low in the zone with movement and his normally hard slider has the late-breaking action once again.
Jurrjens, Jair: 12-4
Notes - After a horrible start to the season, Jurrjens returned from a trip to Triple-A, pitching like the same Braves pitcher from the prior four seasons. Jurrjens' velocity has been down since he suffered a right knee injury in 2010 and his stint in the minor leagues has been about relearning how to pitch, regaining confidence and better utilizing his secondary pitches to throw strikes and induce ground balls. Let's see how he fares this month.
Kershaw, Clayton: 11-5
Notes - The 24-year Dallas native has not received much run support and made costly errors at the wrong times. Where this shows up for Kershaw is being taken yard, as he's permitted 11 homers in 2012, compared to 15 all last season. In looking for bright spot, Kershaw's strikeouts per nine innings continue to rise and if the Dodgers find some offense, the lefty could shine.
Lincecum, Tim: 11-5
Notes - One of the biggest mysteries of the season has been the Giants two-time Cy Young winner. He went 10 starts without a victory (0-6), putting together a ridiculous 6.23 ERA. There have been more theories as to what Lincecum's problems have been than an Arthur Conan Doyle book. The fact is he's made mistakes in the zone that have been hit in the air more than in the past, which suggests less sink on his pitches. This is bore out in having his lowest ground ball-to-fly ball ratios since he was rookie. The diminutive Lincecum threw more like his old self in his last June outing and deserves a wait and see approach.
Morrow, Brandon: 8-4
Notes - The Blue Jays hurler went on the DL on June 13, with a left oblique strain. In late June he started to play "light catch", however, there is no exact timetable for his return, which is too bad since he was having a breakout campaign.
Pavano, Carl: 11-5
Notes - The veteran right-hander has a right anterior capsular strain in his throwing shoulder, which likely has been bothering him since early May. Minnesota officially shut him down the first part of June, when a MRI proved the extent of the injury. Pavano first has to rebuild the strength in the damaged area before doing any throwing.
Sabathia, CC: 12-5
Notes - The Yankees ace has a groin strain and is on the DL. He is presumed to return after the All-Star break and build on another typical Sabathia season.
Weaver, Jered: 12-6
Notes - The only heavenly aspect of the Angels sickly start of the season was their No.1 pitcher, Jered Weaver. The SoCal native has truly unique skills to work both sides of the plate, change speeds to throw strikes on any count and identify weakness in hitters where he be pitch them going up the ladder (move the ball from low to high in the strike zone) for punch-outs. Though right-handed hitters are only batting .236 against Weaver, left-hand batters are a feeble .169 against his tosses. At the Big A in Anaheim, his ERA is an insane 0.70 this season.
BAD MONTH PITCHERS
Hernandez, Livan: 5-11
Notes - Hernandez made 18 relief appearances for Atlanta this season and was picked up by Milwaukee last month, being another pitching staff leaking oil because of injuries. If the Brewers are so desperate they have to start the Cuban native at this point of his 16-year career, an expected result will likely follow.
Vargas, Jason: 3-12
Notes - The Seattle lefty slinger is a fly ball pitcher, which makes him prone to extra-base hits and balls flying over fences. This has been especially true this season, as Vargas has been taken deep 21 times, compared to 22 all of last year.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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07-01-12 04:33 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543
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Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack
-- Since 2002, Oklahoma Sooners covered 59.3% of home games, 45.2% of road games, the biggest discrepancy of any college football team.
-- On the other hand, Navy covered 59.3% of its road games, only 45.3% at home, which is good. You want a military that travels well.
-- Marlins' Giancarlo Stanton was once offered a basketball scholarship to UNLV. Good thing for Ozzie Guillen he turned it down.
-- 48 poker players put up $1M apiece to play in this huge tourney in Las Vegas this week. Who puts up a million of their own money?
-- Erin Andrews' leaving ESPN seems like the female version of McLean Stevenson leaving M*A*S*H*. What else does she do?
-- Duke basketball poached another transfer, this time a very good one, Rodney Hood from Miss State. Guess taking the Curry kid from Liberty wasn't bold enough. Now they're raiding SEC rosters.
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Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Thinking out loud on Canada Day.......
13) First of all, Happy Canada Day to our friends north of the border; this is the day when the Raptors make Steve Nash their pitch for him to join a Toronto squad that could use a boost from the greatest Canadian hooper of all-time (hey, James Naismith was Canadian, too).
Raptors are using Wayne Gretzky as a helper in the recruiting process. Will be fun to see where Nash winds up.
12) Today is also when Carlos Lee will decide whether or not to accept his trade to the Dodgers; from what I've read, LA may be better off without a guy who apparently places little value on winning. Lot of guys would have jumped on the first plane in order to play for a pennant contender this late in their career. Lee is milking the moment. Who needs him?.
11) Dodgers are unspeakably bad; they've lost seven games in a row, scoring a total of two runs. Their defense is awful; the eight position players they start games with these days might not win the AAA World Series. This is why they're trying so hard to add a better bat, to tide them over until they get Kemp/Ethier back in the lineup. .
10) Orioles unveiled a statue honoring former manager Earl Weaver, before they traded for Jim Thome to help them at DH. Busy day in Baltimore.
9) In his last three starts, Lance Lynn of St Louis has allowed 32 runners and 17 earned runs in 15.1 IP. Not good.
8) Aaron Cook's 81-pitch complete game Friday was first shutout in major leagues in 10 years where the pitcher didn't induce one swing/miss. Scott Erickson was the last pitcher to accomplish that unusual feat.
7) Toronto Blue Jays are over a million fans in their first 37 home games, the first time they've done that since 1998.
6) Phillies' 9-19 record in June was their worst month since September of 2000, when they went 9-20.
5) Carl Crawford is 3-14 in five rehab games with the Gulf Coast Red Sox, which doesn't make this fantasy team owner feel any better. At least I'm not paying the guy $20M a year, like Boston is.
4) Seattle Mariners are one of the few teams that doesn't put a shift on for David Ortiz. M's are 3-3 this week, despite scoring 8 runs in six games.
3) Stephen Strasburg left Saturday's game with heat-related issues, which is FOX's fault. If FOX didn't have the 7-10 pm window to themselves, the Braves play a night game Saturday, and that doesn't happen. Teams want to televise their games, so an eastern team has to play a day game, despite the temperature on the dugout floors approaching 120 degrees.
Saturday was the hottest day in the history of Georgia, as far as recorded temperatures go back.
2) San Diego's rookie catcher Yasmani Grandal is the first player in major league history whose first two big league hits were both homers, one from the left side of the plate, the other from the right side. Wow.
1) Before Saturday, last big leaguer whose first two hits were homers was JC Arencibia of Toronto, another catcher, who did it August 7, 2010.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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07-01-12 04:39 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543
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MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up
Sunday, July 1
Hot pitchers
-- Nolasco is 2-2, 1.98 in his last four home starts. Phillies won Blanton's last four starts (3-0, 4.25), scoring 30 runs.
-- Hudson is 3-1, 2.25 in his last four starts. GGonzalez is 3-1, 4.44 in his last four outings.
-- Wood has a 2.27 RA in his last five starts.
-- Cardinals won last three Westbrook starts (2-0, 2.57).
-- Vogelsong is 3-1, 1.90 in his last six starts.
-- Niese is 2-0, 2.03 in his last couple starts. Kershaw has a 1.93 RA in his last two starts.
-- Masterson is 2-2, 1.86 in his last four starts.
-- Floyd is 2-0, 0.00 (13.1 IP) in his last couple starts. Hughes is 4-1, 2.67 in his last five starts.
-- BChen is 2-0, 2.13 in his last couple starts. Liriano is 1-0, 2.29 in his last three starts.
-- Wilson is 5-0, 1.68 in his last seven starts. Laffey blanked Boston for six innings in his first '12 start, at Fenway.
-- Blackley is 1-0, 2.14 in his last three starts. Darvish is 3-0, 3.13 in his last three starts.
Cold pitchers
-- Collmenter is 0-2, 8.87 in five starts this season. Gallardo is 2-2, 4.26 in his last five starts.
-- Bedard is 0-2, 7.05 in his last three starts.
-- WRodriguez has a 7.46 RA in his last six starts.
-- Pomeranz is 0-2, 5.09 in five starts this season. KWells allowed five runs in five IP in his first '12 start.
-- Arroyo is 1-3, 5.66 in his last six starts.
-- Matusz is 0-4, 8.83 in his last four starts.
-- Cobb is 1-4, 5.88 in his last five starts. Smyly is 0-2, 7.78 in his last four starts.
-- Vargas is 0-3, 7.56 in his last four starts. Doubrant is 2-2, 7.43 in his last four starts.
Hot Teams
-- Marlins won their last three games, allowing seven runs.
-- Cubs won four of their last five games.
-- Pirates won ten of their last fourteen games.
-- Padres are 7-5 in their last dozen road games.
-- Mets won their last four games, allowing three runs.
-- Reds won first two games of San Francisco series, 5-1/2-1.
-- Toronto won five of its last six home games. Angels won nine of their last thirteen games, but lost last two.
-- Bronx Bombers won 16 of their last 21 games, White Sox won six of their last eight games.
-- Rangers won 13 of their last 15 games.
-- Red Sox won 12 of their last 17 games.
Cold Teams
-- Houston was outscored 30-10 in losing its last five road games.
-- Phillies lost eight of their last ten away games.
-- Cardinals lost last three games, allowing 26 runs.
-- Atlanta lost eight of its last eleven home games. This is last game of road trip for Washington (4-5 on trip so far).
-- Colorado lost 17 of its last 23 games.
-- Arizona lost five of its last seven away games. Brewers lost five of their last seven games overall.
-- Dodgers lost 12 of last 14 games, scoring two runs in last six games.
-- Giants lost their last two games, scoring two runs.
-- Indians lost nine of their last 12 road games. Baltimore lost five of its last seven games.
-- Tampa Bay lost eight of its last eleven games. Tigers lost three of five.
-- Royals are 5-7 in their last dozen road games. Minnesota lost seven of its last 11 home games, but won last two.
-- Oakland lost four of its last five games.
-- Mariners lost 13 of their last 20 games; they're 3-3 this week, despite scoring eight runs in those six games.
Totals
-- 12 of last 15 Houston road games went over the total.
-- Over is 26-9 in Philly's last 35 games.
-- Six of last seven Atlanta games went over the total.
-- Over is 8-2-1 in last eleven games at Coors Field.
-- Under is 11-6-1 in last eighteen Arizona road games.
-- 14 of last 16 Pittsburgh road games went over the total.
-- Under is 9-3-1 in Dodgers' last thirteen games.
-- Ten of last eleven Cincinnati games stayed under total.
-- Over is 8-2-1 in last eleven Angel games.
-- Under is 9-4-2 in last fifteen Cleveland road games.
-- Eight of last eleven White Sox games stayed under the total.
-- Nine of last eleven Detroit games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 9-3-1 in last thirteen Oakland games.
-- Eight of last ten Kansas City road games stayed under.
-- Last eight Seattle games stayed under the total.
Umpires
-- Pitt-StL-- Four of last five Wolf games went over the total.
-- Wsh-Atl-- Seven of last ten McClelland games went over.
-- Cin-SF-- Under is 8-2-1 in last eleven Iassogna games.
-- Hst-Chi-- Seven of last nine Everitt games stayed under.
-- Phil-Mia-- Favorites won last six Demuth games.
-- NY-LA-- Over is 6-3-1 in last ten Randazzo games. 5:00 local time start; shadows could be a factor.
-- Az-Mil-- Four of last five Hickox games stayed under the total.
-- SD-Col-- Six of last eight Carapazza games stayed under total.
-- LA-Tor-- Favorites won six of last seven Hoye games.
-- Chi-NY-- Five of last seven Cooper games went over the total.
-- Clev-Blt-- 12 of last 15 Drake games went over the total.
-- KC-Min-- 14 of 15 Emmel games went over total; they played twinbill Saturday; check late to make sure Emmel is behind plate here.
-- A's-Tex-- Visiting team won six of last nine Gonzalez games.
-- Bos-Sea-- 11 of last 15 Culbreth games went over total.
-- Det-TB-- Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Muchlinski games.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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07-01-12 04:43 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543
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MLB
Sunday, July 1
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Sunday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers
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Streaking
Gavin Floyd, Chicago White Sox (6-7, 4.80 ERA)
Floyd hasn’t allowed an earned run in consecutive starts, putting in 13 1/3 innings of solid pitching after a long rocky stretch. Before his recent hot streak, the big righty had allowed at least four runs in six straight starts. He tied a season-high with nine strikeouts in his latest turn, earning a 3-2 victory over the Twins.
Gio Gonzalez, Washington Nationals (10-3, 2.78 ERA)
Gonzalez wasn’t at his best in his last start, but still battled well enough to earn his 10th win of the season. He gave up two homers and four runs over six innings with seven strikeouts to help the Nats down the Rockies 12-5. He now has 108 strikeouts in only 90 2/3 innings pitched.
Slumping
Brian Matusz, Baltimore Orioles (5-9, 5.24 ERA)
Matusz has lost each of his last four starts and was absolutely terrible in his last trip to the hill. He allowed five runs, two homers, and a whopping 13 hits in just five innings during a 7-3 loss to the Angels Tuesday. Matusz owns an 8.31 ERA during the slump
Erik Bedard, Pittsburgh Pirates (4-8, 4.27 ERA)
The Pirates have lost four of Bedard’s last five starts. He is coming off a 5-4 loss to Philadelphia that saw him go six innings, allowing four runs. The lefty has also had a tough time on the road. He has lost four straight road starts.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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07-01-12 04:44 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543
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MLB
Sunday, July 1
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Sunday Night Baseball: Mets at Dodgers
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New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers (-145, 6.5)
East Coast versus West Coast on Sunday night baseball as the Mets finish their four-game series against the Dodgers in Los Angeles.
The Weakest Link
The Mets have been successful this season by using a four-man pitching rotation of R.A. Dickey, Johan Santana, Jonathon Niese, and Dillon Gee. However, of those four starters, Gee has been by far the weakest link. The other three pitchers each have an ERA of 3.55 or better with a WHIP of 1.27 or better, while Gee has struggled with a 4.42 ERA and 1.29 WHIP.
Gee is coming off one of his worst starts of the season last Tuesday when he allowed four runs and nine hits in just five innings against the Cubs in Chicago. Overall, Gee has a 4.23 ERA and 1.36 WHIP on the road this season.
Mr. Consistency
Los Angeles starter Clayton Kershaw has been the most consistent starter in the league the past four seasons. He struggled in his rookie season in 2008 with a 4.26 ERA and only 100 strikeouts, but he has dominated ever since with a 2.79 ERA and 185 strikeouts in 2009, 2.91 ERA and 212 strikeouts in 2010, and 2.28 ERA and 248 strikeouts in 2011 which led to the Cy Young award.
Kershaw is once again having a fantastic season this year with a 2.74 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 16 starts with a 103/27 strikeout/walk ratio.
Offensive Injuries
The Dodgers have suffered a major blow to their offensive power this season as their top two power hitters, Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp, are currently out of the lineup.
Ethier strained his left oblique on Wednesday and is out indefinitely, while Kemp has been out since he re-aggravated his hamstring injury on May 30th. The two players have combined for 22 home runs this season, while the rest of the team had combined for just 23 home runs all year entering Saturday's game.
Ethier and Kemp have also combined for 83 RBI as they rank first and second on the team.
Hitters vs. Starters
Matt Kemp's injury is good news for Dillon Gee as Kemp was 2-for-5 (.400) in his career versus the right-hander. Tony Gwynn is 2-for-3 (.667) versus Gee, while the rest of the Dodgers' lineup is just 2-for-10 (.200) if you remove the injured Andre Ethier (0-for-4).
The Mets' current players have struggled against Kershaw, going a combined 15-for-77 (.195). The three hitters with the most career at-bats versus Kershaw have mixed results as David Wright is just 1-for-9 (.111) and Andres Torres is only 2-for-19 (.105), while Scott Hairston is surprisingly 7-for-17 (.412) versus Kershaw.
Trends to Watch
Dodgers are 20-6 in Kershaw's last 26 home starts.
Mets are 1-5 in Gee's last 6 starts.
Mets are 19-6-1 Over last 26 road games vs. LH starter.
Kershaw is 13-4-1 Under in his last 18 home starts.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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07-01-12 04:45 PM |
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