the trends would support your play
in fact my first hunch was the under....
and then i saw this
OU Trends
* Under is 4-0 in Aggies last 4 vs. SEC.
* Under is 4-0 in Aggies last 4 neutral site games.
* Under is 4-0 in Aggies last 4 neutral site games as an underdog.
* Under is 5-1 in Aggies last 6 games on grass.
* Under is 4-1 in Aggies last 5 Bowl games.
* Under is 4-1 in Aggies last 5 non-conference games.
* Under is 4-1 in Aggies last 5 bowl games.
* Under is 4-1 in Aggies last 5 games as an underdog.
* Over is 4-1 in Aggies last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
* Over is 20-6-1 in Aggies last 27 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
* Under is 3-1-1 in Aggies last 5 Friday games
and i thought to myself
surely the books know this.....
and then every poster is on the under
and they r taking lsu and teasing it with the under
vegas doesnt take to losing kindly
so drtony places wagers on
a/m and over huge
i have a feeling this goes over in the third quarter
and all those teasers get crushed
not a teaser guy myself!
For what it's worth, I live in SEC country so I get to hear about it every day all throughout the year.
Here's my take on LSU/Tex A&M:
LSU has a good defense, and I can honestly see them holding A&M to less than 20, slight possibility in the single digits albeit slight.
I know A&M has had a good run the past 6 games or so SU and ATS and an overall great year and supposed home field advantage with the crowd. HOWEVER, there will be a ton of LSU fans there as well. These fans will def. travel esp. to see a new stadium they haven't visited yet. I think the crowd will be no more than 60/40 A&M but my guess is majority will still be for the tigers, so no big factor there.
The only thing that scares me on taking the UNDER is the fact that if LSU gets rolling, they could very easily score 40.
My prediction: LSU 27, A&M 17
Good luck with this one Doc, just hope you're not basing this play on fading the majority/public alone
the trends support the under to a ridiculous degree and people r pounding it with no change in the line
but public fade is not the only factor
a/m can b explosive
lsu is a stout d no doubt
but with all this time to prepare i think it favors both offenses
and jefferson could easily throw a pick 6
both teams have good special teams
we could easily see 14 points tonight generated by defense or special teams
and in the event lsu did blowout a/m- which i dont c happening but is certainly possible
the over is blowout protection
statistically i actually c these 2 teams as equals for the most part
and a/m has to b a little more motivated
an lsu goal under miles is the nc game
a/m has a chance to make a statement
and do so in front of a kind of home crowd
while tigers travel well
and its not exactly cross country
i still expect this to b an agiie crowd
but u could b right
should b a fun one to watch !
enjoy the game
and best of luck
appreciate the comments!
Good points as well Tony. As far as the NC game being LSU's goal you are correct, but I think they knew all year they're just lucky to be where they are. They did not have a NC caliber team this year on either side of the ball, and have had a ton of luck and swings go their way all season, and I think you can see it on Les Miles face that he's going to have fun tonight and yes I think there will be at least 1 trick play during the game.
I hate Les Miles and I hate LSU, but I have learned not to bet against them.