Dear All,

A while ago (Jan. 08, I think) I have posted a system based on Jeff Sagarins's ratings. I just want you to update on how the system has done for the past seasons;

NBA 2010-2011 ATS 12-7-0 +4.51
NBA 2009-2010 ATS 53-36-1 +13.91
NBA 2008-2009 ATS 59-45-2 +11.25
NBA 2007-2008 ATS 86-56-4 +28.19

This Season Picks;

19/11/2010 > Milwaukee -3.5 @1.97-Lost [79 - 90]
19/11/2010 > San Antonio +2.5 @1.95-Won [94 - 82]
19/11/2010 > New Jersey +4 @1.94-Lost [81 - 86]
22/11/2010 > Boston +3 @1.89-Won [99 - 76]
22/11/2010 > San Antonio -3.5 @1.97-Won [97 - 106]
22/11/2010 > New Orleans -5.5 @2-Lost [95 - 99]
23/11/2010 > Indiana -4 @2-Won [89 - 100]
23/11/2010 > Chicago +8 @1.93-Won [91 - 98]
24/11/2010 > New York +5.5 @1.96-Won [99 - 95]
24/11/2010 > Dallas +4 @1.94-Won [111 - 103]
24/11/2010 > San Antonio -7.5 @1.95-Lost [113 - 109]
24/11/2010 > Detroit +6.5 @2-Lost [84 - 105]
24/11/2010 > Chicago +3 @1.94-Won [123 - 115]
24/11/2010 > New Orleans +4 @2.04-Lost [87 - 105]
26/11/2010 > Chicago +5 @1.99-Won [97 - 98]
27/11/2010 > Chicago -1.5 @1.95-Won [96 - 85]
29/11/2010 > New Orleans +1.5 @1.95-Lost [89 - 95]
29/11/2010 > Utah +6 @2.01-Won [88 - 109]
30/11/2010 > San Antonio -4 @1.98-Won [118 - 98]

01/12/2010 > New Orleans -8 @1.95
01/12/2010 > San Antonio -7 @1.98


Examples;

1 December, 2010

Charlotte vs New Orleans
87.84 vs 95.44
Home Advantage: 2.43
Projected Result: 95.44 + 2.43 - 87.84 = 10.03
Spread Adj: 10 - 8 = 2 [OK >=2]
New Orleans ATS Home (5-3-0): 62.5% [OK >= 55%]

FINAL PICK: New Orleans -8

San Antonio vs LA Clippers
98.87 vs 83.31
Home Advantage: 2.43
Projected Result: 83.31 + 2.43 - 98.87 = -13
Spread Adj: -13 + 6 = -7 [OK <=-3]
San Antonio ATS Away (6-1-1): 85.7% [I have disregarded the Push, OK>=55%]

FINAL PICK: San Antonio -7

SYSTEM RULES;

1) Home Team ATS Adjusted should be greater than or equal to +2.0

2) Away Team ATS Adjusted should be less than or equal to -3.0 <-4.0 is less than -3.0>

3) ATS season split performance (Home ATS for home team and Away ATS for the away team) should be greater than or equal to 55%.

(Data from http://www.ats411.com/)

4) Additional criteria for FAVS, No Double Digit spread.

5) At least 10 games should have been played.

Best Regards,
Eben

what is the spread adj?

It is the porjected score plus the spread.

Another example;

Washington @ Toronto

Washington - 84.44
Toronto - 86.98

Home Court Advantage - 2.43

Home Team ATS Adjusted = Home Rating - Away Rating + Home Court Advantage + Home Spread

= 86.98 - 84.44 + 2.43 + (-4.5)
= 0.47

If this value is greater than or equal to 2, for this to be a final pick Rules 3,4 & 5 should be met.

Away Team ATS Adjusted = Away Rating - Home Rating - Home Court Advantage + Away Spread

= 84.44 - 86.98 - 2.43 + 4.5
= -0.47 (or just the negative value of Home ATS Adjusted)

If this value is less than than or equal to -3, for this to be a final pick Rules 3,4 & 5 should be met.

So, finally this NO PICK.

Links:
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nba1011.htm

Note: Spread Adj. (NOH and SAS example) is the same as Home Team ATS Adjusted for the Home Team and vice versa.


Regards,
Eben

Dear All,

Picks;

3 December 2010

New York vs New Orleans > New Orleans -6.5 @1.93

Note: This system pick clash with my other system, so there will be no bet for me but I am posting here for record purposes only.

Results;

1 December 2010

New Orleans -8 @1.95 - Won
San Antonio -7 @1.98 - Lost

Record:
NBA 2010-2011 ATS 13-8-0 +4.46
NBA 2009-2010 ATS 53-36-1 +13.91
NBA 2008-2009 ATS 59-45-2 +11.25
NBA 2007-2008 ATS 86-56-4 +28.19


Best Regards,
Eben

Dear All,

Picks;

10 December 2010

Oklahoma City vs New Orleans > New Orleans -3 @1.92

Results;

3 December 2010

New York vs New Orleans > New Orleans -6.5 @1.93 - Lost [100-92]

Record:
NBA 2010-2011 ATS 13-9-0 +3.46
NBA 2009-2010 ATS 53-36-1 +13.91
NBA 2008-2009 ATS 59-45-2 +11.25
NBA 2007-2008 ATS 86-56-4 +28.19

Regards,
Eben

Dear All,

Picks;

12 December 2010

Portland vs San Antonio > San Antonio -8 @1.98

Results;

10 December 2010

Oklahoma City vs New Orleans > New Orleans -3 @1.92 - Lost [97-92]

Record:
NBA 2010-2011 ATS 13-10-0 +2.46
NBA 2009-2010 ATS 53-36-1 +13.91
NBA 2008-2009 ATS 59-45-2 +11.25
NBA 2007-2008 ATS 86-56-4 +28.19

Regards,
Eben

Dear All,

Results;

12 December 2010

Portland vs San Antonio > San Antonio -8 @1.98 - Won [78-95]

Record:
NBA 2010-2011 ATS 14-10-0 +3.44
NBA 2009-2010 ATS 53-36-1 +13.91
NBA 2008-2009 ATS 59-45-2 +11.25
NBA 2007-2008 ATS 86-56-4 +28.19

Regards,
Eben

Dear All,

Picks;

14 December 2010

Sacramento vs Houston > Houston -9 @1.95

Record:
NBA 2010-2011 ATS 14-10-0 +3.44
NBA 2009-2010 ATS 53-36-1 +13.91
NBA 2008-2009 ATS 59-45-2 +11.25
NBA 2007-2008 ATS 86-56-4 +28.19

Regards,
Eben

Dear All,

Results:

14 December 2010

Sacramento vs Houston > Houston -9 @1.95 - Won [105-118]

Record:
NBA 2010-2011 ATS 15-10-0 +4.39
NBA 2009-2010 ATS 53-36-1 +13.91
NBA 2008-2009 ATS 59-45-2 +11.25
NBA 2007-2008 ATS 86-56-4 +28.19

Regards,
Eben

Dear All,

Picks:

15 December 2010

LA Clippers vs Philadelphia > Philadelphia -5.5 @1.95
Milwaukee vs San Antonio > San Antonio -9 @1.96

Record:
NBA 2010-2011 ATS 15-10-0 +4.39
NBA 2009-2010 ATS 53-36-1 +13.91
NBA 2008-2009 ATS 59-45-2 +11.25
NBA 2007-2008 ATS 86-56-4 +28.19

Regards,
Eben

Dear All,

Results:

15 December 2010

LA Clippers vs Philadelphia > Philadelphia -5.5 @1.95 - Won [91-105]
Milwaukee vs San Antonio > San Antonio -9 @1.96 - Lost [90-92]

Record:
NBA 2010-2011 ATS 17-12-0 +4.34
NBA 2009-2010 ATS 53-36-1 +13.91
NBA 2008-2009 ATS 59-45-2 +11.25
NBA 2007-2008 ATS 86-56-4 +28.19

Regards,
Eben

Dear All,

Picks:

17 December 2010

LA Lakers vs Philadelphia > Philadelphia +5.5 @1.93
Minnesota vs Portland > Portland -8 @2.0

Record:
NBA 2010-2011 ATS 17-12-0 +4.34
NBA 2009-2010 ATS 53-36-1 +13.91
NBA 2008-2009 ATS 59-45-2 +11.25
NBA 2007-2008 ATS 86-56-4 +28.19

Regards,
Eben

Dear All,

Picks:

20 December 2010

Dallas vs Miami > Dallas +7 @1.94

Results:

17 December 2010

LA Lakers vs Philadelphia > Philadelphia +5.5 @1.93 - Lost [93-81]
Minnesota vs Portland > Portland -8 @2.0 - Lost [102-107]

Record:
NBA 2010-2011 ATS 17-14-0 +2.34
NBA 2009-2010 ATS 53-36-1 +13.91
NBA 2008-2009 ATS 59-45-2 +11.25
NBA 2007-2008 ATS 86-56-4 +28.19

Regards,
Eben

Good luck mate!

Stay with it.

Dear All,

Thanks mateys!

Result:

20 December 2010

Dallas vs Miami > Dallas +7 @1.94 - Won [98-96]

Record:
NBA 2010-2011 ATS 18-14-0 +3.28
NBA 2009-2010 ATS 53-36-1 +13.91
NBA 2008-2009 ATS 59-45-2 +11.25
NBA 2007-2008 ATS 86-56-4 +28.19

Regards,
Eben

Dear All,

Picks;

21 December 2010

Oklahoma City vs Charlotte > Charlotte +6.5 @1.97
Dallas vs Orlando > Dallas +3 @1.92
New Jersey vs Memphis > Memphis -6 @1.91

Record:
NBA 2010-2011 ATS 18-14-0 +3.28
NBA 2009-2010 ATS 53-36-1 +13.91
NBA 2008-2009 ATS 59-45-2 +11.25
NBA 2007-2008 ATS 86-56-4 +28.19

Regards,
Eben

Dear All,

Picks;

4 January 2011

Toronto vs Chicago > Chicago -9 @1.91

Results;

21 December 2010

Oklahoma City vs Charlotte > Charlotte +6.5 @1.97 - Lost [99-81]
Dallas vs Orlando > Dallas +3 @1.92 - Won [105-99]
New Jersey vs Memphis > Memphis -6 @1.91 - Lost [101-94]

Record:
NBA 2010-2011 ATS 19-16-0 +2.20
NBA 2009-2010 ATS 53-36-1 +13.91
NBA 2008-2009 ATS 59-45-2 +11.25
NBA 2007-2008 ATS 86-56-4 +28.19

Regards,
Eben