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ebenu2
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Apr 2007
Posts: 864

Re: EbeN's JSAG System <2010 Updates>

Dear All,

A while ago (Jan. 08, I think) I have posted a system based on Jeff Sagarins's ratings. I just want you to update on how the system has done for the past seasons;

NBA 2010-2011 ATS 12-7-0 +4.51
NBA 2009-2010 ATS 53-36-1 +13.91
NBA 2008-2009 ATS 59-45-2 +11.25
NBA 2007-2008 ATS 86-56-4 +28.19

This Season Picks;

19/11/2010 > Milwaukee -3.5 @1.97-Lost [79 - 90]
19/11/2010 > San Antonio +2.5 @1.95-Won [94 - 82]
19/11/2010 > New Jersey +4 @1.94-Lost [81 - 86]
22/11/2010 > Boston +3 @1.89-Won [99 - 76]
22/11/2010 > San Antonio -3.5 @1.97-Won [97 - 106]
22/11/2010 > New Orleans -5.5 @2-Lost [95 - 99]
23/11/2010 > Indiana -4 @2-Won [89 - 100]
23/11/2010 > Chicago +8 @1.93-Won [91 - 98]
24/11/2010 > New York +5.5 @1.96-Won [99 - 95]
24/11/2010 > Dallas +4 @1.94-Won [111 - 103]
24/11/2010 > San Antonio -7.5 @1.95-Lost [113 - 109]
24/11/2010 > Detroit +6.5 @2-Lost [84 - 105]
24/11/2010 > Chicago +3 @1.94-Won [123 - 115]
24/11/2010 > New Orleans +4 @2.04-Lost [87 - 105]
26/11/2010 > Chicago +5 @1.99-Won [97 - 98]
27/11/2010 > Chicago -1.5 @1.95-Won [96 - 85]
29/11/2010 > New Orleans +1.5 @1.95-Lost [89 - 95]
29/11/2010 > Utah +6 @2.01-Won [88 - 109]
30/11/2010 > San Antonio -4 @1.98-Won [118 - 98]

01/12/2010 > New Orleans -8 @1.95
01/12/2010 > San Antonio -7 @1.98


Examples;

1 December, 2010

Charlotte vs New Orleans
87.84 vs 95.44
Home Advantage: 2.43
Projected Result: 95.44 + 2.43 - 87.84 = 10.03
Spread Adj: 10 - 8 = 2 [OK >=2]
New Orleans ATS Home (5-3-0): 62.5% [OK >= 55%]

FINAL PICK: New Orleans -8

San Antonio vs LA Clippers
98.87 vs 83.31
Home Advantage: 2.43
Projected Result: 83.31 + 2.43 - 98.87 = -13
Spread Adj: -13 + 6 = -7 [OK <=-3]
San Antonio ATS Away (6-1-1): 85.7% [I have disregarded the Push, OK>=55%]

FINAL PICK: San Antonio -7

SYSTEM RULES;

1) Home Team ATS Adjusted should be greater than or equal to +2.0

2) Away Team ATS Adjusted should be less than or equal to -3.0 <-4.0 is less than -3.0>

3) ATS season split performance (Home ATS for home team and Away ATS for the away team) should be greater than or equal to 55%.

(Data from http://www.ats411.com/)

4) Additional criteria for FAVS, No Double Digit spread.

5) At least 10 games should have been played.

Best Regards,
Eben

Old Post 12-02-10 12:08 AM
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vd1000


Registered: Mar 2010
Posts: 129

thanks

what is the spread adj?

Old Post 12-02-10 05:20 AM
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ebenu2
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Apr 2007
Posts: 864

It is the porjected score plus the spread.

Another example;

Washington @ Toronto

Washington - 84.44
Toronto - 86.98

Home Court Advantage - 2.43

Home Team ATS Adjusted = Home Rating - Away Rating + Home Court Advantage + Home Spread

= 86.98 - 84.44 + 2.43 + (-4.5)
= 0.47

If this value is greater than or equal to 2, for this to be a final pick Rules 3,4 & 5 should be met.

Away Team ATS Adjusted = Away Rating - Home Rating - Home Court Advantage + Away Spread

= 84.44 - 86.98 - 2.43 + 4.5
= -0.47 (or just the negative value of Home ATS Adjusted)

If this value is less than than or equal to -3, for this to be a final pick Rules 3,4 & 5 should be met.

So, finally this NO PICK.

Links:
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nba1011.htm

Note: Spread Adj. (NOH and SAS example) is the same as Home Team ATS Adjusted for the Home Team and vice versa.


Regards,
Eben

Old Post 12-02-10 06:47 AM
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ebenu2
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Apr 2007
Posts: 864

Dear All,

Picks;

3 December 2010

New York vs New Orleans > New Orleans -6.5 @1.93

Note: This system pick clash with my other system, so there will be no bet for me but I am posting here for record purposes only.

Results;

1 December 2010

New Orleans -8 @1.95 - Won
San Antonio -7 @1.98 - Lost

Record:
NBA 2010-2011 ATS 13-8-0 +4.46
NBA 2009-2010 ATS 53-36-1 +13.91
NBA 2008-2009 ATS 59-45-2 +11.25
NBA 2007-2008 ATS 86-56-4 +28.19


Best Regards,
Eben

Old Post 12-03-10 11:51 AM
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ebenu2
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Apr 2007
Posts: 864

Dear All,

Picks;

10 December 2010

Oklahoma City vs New Orleans > New Orleans -3 @1.92

Results;

3 December 2010

New York vs New Orleans > New Orleans -6.5 @1.93 - Lost [100-92]

Record:
NBA 2010-2011 ATS 13-9-0 +3.46
NBA 2009-2010 ATS 53-36-1 +13.91
NBA 2008-2009 ATS 59-45-2 +11.25
NBA 2007-2008 ATS 86-56-4 +28.19

Regards,
Eben

Old Post 12-10-10 11:17 PM
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ebenu2
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Apr 2007
Posts: 864

Dear All,

Picks;

12 December 2010

Portland vs San Antonio > San Antonio -8 @1.98

Results;

10 December 2010

Oklahoma City vs New Orleans > New Orleans -3 @1.92 - Lost [97-92]

Record:
NBA 2010-2011 ATS 13-10-0 +2.46
NBA 2009-2010 ATS 53-36-1 +13.91
NBA 2008-2009 ATS 59-45-2 +11.25
NBA 2007-2008 ATS 86-56-4 +28.19

Regards,
Eben

Old Post 12-12-10 01:31 PM
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ebenu2
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Apr 2007
Posts: 864

Dear All,

Results;

12 December 2010

Portland vs San Antonio > San Antonio -8 @1.98 - Won [78-95]

Record:
NBA 2010-2011 ATS 14-10-0 +3.44
NBA 2009-2010 ATS 53-36-1 +13.91
NBA 2008-2009 ATS 59-45-2 +11.25
NBA 2007-2008 ATS 86-56-4 +28.19

Regards,
Eben

Old Post 12-13-10 02:52 PM
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ebenu2
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Apr 2007
Posts: 864

Dear All,

Picks;

14 December 2010

Sacramento vs Houston > Houston -9 @1.95

Record:
NBA 2010-2011 ATS 14-10-0 +3.44
NBA 2009-2010 ATS 53-36-1 +13.91
NBA 2008-2009 ATS 59-45-2 +11.25
NBA 2007-2008 ATS 86-56-4 +28.19

Regards,
Eben

Old Post 12-14-10 10:52 PM
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ebenu2
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Apr 2007
Posts: 864

Dear All,

Results:

14 December 2010

Sacramento vs Houston > Houston -9 @1.95 - Won [105-118]

Record:
NBA 2010-2011 ATS 15-10-0 +4.39
NBA 2009-2010 ATS 53-36-1 +13.91
NBA 2008-2009 ATS 59-45-2 +11.25
NBA 2007-2008 ATS 86-56-4 +28.19

Regards,
Eben

Old Post 12-15-10 08:29 AM
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ebenu2
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Apr 2007
Posts: 864

Dear All,

Picks:

15 December 2010

LA Clippers vs Philadelphia > Philadelphia -5.5 @1.95
Milwaukee vs San Antonio > San Antonio -9 @1.96

Record:
NBA 2010-2011 ATS 15-10-0 +4.39
NBA 2009-2010 ATS 53-36-1 +13.91
NBA 2008-2009 ATS 59-45-2 +11.25
NBA 2007-2008 ATS 86-56-4 +28.19

Regards,
Eben

Old Post 12-15-10 11:02 PM
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ebenu2
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Apr 2007
Posts: 864

Dear All,

Results:

15 December 2010

LA Clippers vs Philadelphia > Philadelphia -5.5 @1.95 - Won [91-105]
Milwaukee vs San Antonio > San Antonio -9 @1.96 - Lost [90-92]

Record:
NBA 2010-2011 ATS 17-12-0 +4.34
NBA 2009-2010 ATS 53-36-1 +13.91
NBA 2008-2009 ATS 59-45-2 +11.25
NBA 2007-2008 ATS 86-56-4 +28.19

Regards,
Eben

Old Post 12-16-10 09:54 AM
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ebenu2
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Apr 2007
Posts: 864

Dear All,

Picks:

17 December 2010

LA Lakers vs Philadelphia > Philadelphia +5.5 @1.93
Minnesota vs Portland > Portland -8 @2.0

Record:
NBA 2010-2011 ATS 17-12-0 +4.34
NBA 2009-2010 ATS 53-36-1 +13.91
NBA 2008-2009 ATS 59-45-2 +11.25
NBA 2007-2008 ATS 86-56-4 +28.19

Regards,
Eben

Old Post 12-18-10 12:18 AM
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ebenu2
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Apr 2007
Posts: 864

Dear All,

Picks:

20 December 2010

Dallas vs Miami > Dallas +7 @1.94

Results:

17 December 2010

LA Lakers vs Philadelphia > Philadelphia +5.5 @1.93 - Lost [93-81]
Minnesota vs Portland > Portland -8 @2.0 - Lost [102-107]

Record:
NBA 2010-2011 ATS 17-14-0 +2.34
NBA 2009-2010 ATS 53-36-1 +13.91
NBA 2008-2009 ATS 59-45-2 +11.25
NBA 2007-2008 ATS 86-56-4 +28.19

Regards,
Eben

Old Post 12-20-10 11:47 PM
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Sawyer
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Jan 2008
Posts: 7148

Good luck mate!




Iron Dogs 2010-2011 Regular Season Record: 144-149, x46.58 Units (1 Unit Each Play)
Statfox Denham's Best Bets Thread 2011: 32-14, %70
NCAAB *10 Totals 2009-2010: 25-16, %60.97
NBA Totals 2010: 133-83 ATS, %61.57

Old Post 12-21-10 12:29 AM
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CUBANO
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Jan 2009
Posts: 21145

Stay with it.




2014 MLB Contest 1st Place
2016 NBA Contest 1st Place

Old Post 12-21-10 12:32 AM
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ebenu2
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Apr 2007
Posts: 864

Dear All,

Thanks mateys!

Result:

20 December 2010

Dallas vs Miami > Dallas +7 @1.94 - Won [98-96]

Record:
NBA 2010-2011 ATS 18-14-0 +3.28
NBA 2009-2010 ATS 53-36-1 +13.91
NBA 2008-2009 ATS 59-45-2 +11.25
NBA 2007-2008 ATS 86-56-4 +28.19

Regards,
Eben

Old Post 12-21-10 10:33 AM
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ebenu2
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Apr 2007
Posts: 864

Dear All,

Picks;

21 December 2010

Oklahoma City vs Charlotte > Charlotte +6.5 @1.97
Dallas vs Orlando > Dallas +3 @1.92
New Jersey vs Memphis > Memphis -6 @1.91

Record:
NBA 2010-2011 ATS 18-14-0 +3.28
NBA 2009-2010 ATS 53-36-1 +13.91
NBA 2008-2009 ATS 59-45-2 +11.25
NBA 2007-2008 ATS 86-56-4 +28.19

Regards,
Eben

Old Post 12-21-10 09:35 PM
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ebenu2
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Apr 2007
Posts: 864

Dear All,

Picks;

4 January 2011

Toronto vs Chicago > Chicago -9 @1.91

Results;

21 December 2010

Oklahoma City vs Charlotte > Charlotte +6.5 @1.97 - Lost [99-81]
Dallas vs Orlando > Dallas +3 @1.92 - Won [105-99]
New Jersey vs Memphis > Memphis -6 @1.91 - Lost [101-94]

Record:
NBA 2010-2011 ATS 19-16-0 +2.20
NBA 2009-2010 ATS 53-36-1 +13.91
NBA 2008-2009 ATS 59-45-2 +11.25
NBA 2007-2008 ATS 86-56-4 +28.19

Regards,
Eben

Old Post 01-04-11 11:28 PM
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