The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping |
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ecarc
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Sep 2005
Posts: 581
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Day 1 - Old dog system - Oscars Grind
Always wanted to implement Oscars Grind betting system to sports. Always wandered why nobody mentions it. This betting scheme is perfect for baseball dogs that hit 50%>. I would call this a conservative chase system. I know alot of you disdain chases, but I feel this one is superior. Now the units can get pretty high when losing period long, but whats great about this is that you don't increase your unit until you win. Anyway,here is a link for anyone interested :
http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/progress/prog1.htm
I will apply this to an underdog system that Bob Baffert, formerly of the den, had success with. I will use his best filters, and add one other filter. That filter will be to eliminate any play if two of Dens' top baseball cappers are on the opposite side.
The first play will be on the Pitt Pirates for 1 unit +122
For those interested the details of the system are below:
"I mentioned the dog system and posted these picks under the new dog system some time back. I have been quiet with them but I feel I should share them with the board. The numbers above go through July 10th. I am a few days off but will get them caught up. This is base on one simple premise. Take a dog when the pitchers era is better than the favorites. Filter games where one pitch does not have 40IP and do not bet games below +110 or above equal to or above -200.
What you should notice.
57.6% picking dogs over about a 2 month period. These numbers are very good.
74-30 RL winners on dogs. 71% RL winners +21.6 units.
Ok. Those are the basic stats. Pretty good. I have been doing very well with these numbers. Now I am gonna throw some situations out there that are really strong in favor of dogs. These need more work but can help you decide to bet more units or not.
Here are some stats
ERA1 is the era of the dog, the lower era
ERA2 is the era of the fav, the higher era
Difference is the difference between the two
Ok.
ERA1 stats (ML then RL)
<3.00 (8-11) -0.85 (17-7) +1.75
3.00-3.99 (24-12) +21.95 (25-11) +8.34
4.00-4.99 (23-17) +12.2 (31-9) +15.55
5.00 up (6-4) +3.55 (6-4) +1.95
Notes - Stick with middle eras. Low eras and high eras are bad. Notice the 24-12 ML on dogs with era1 between 3 and 3.99. Very good place for bets. Also the 31-9 RL on 4 to 4.99, another good place to look for dogs.
ERA2
Skipping the stats. Just stay away from eras below 4 on the era2. They are losers. Also, the strongest stat of all is here:
Era2 above 5.50
16-4 ML DOGS!
18-2 RL DOGS!
Era 2 above 6.00
5-2 ML DOGS
7-0 RL DOGS!
Difference Stats
Above 2.00 8-4 ML +6.35 10-2 RL +7.25
Between 1.00 and 1.99 14-6 ML +12.9 16-4 RL +10.0
Less than 1.00 38-34 ML +17.60 48-24 RL +10.40
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05-23-07 01:47 AM |
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ecarc
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Sep 2005
Posts: 581
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update
Pitt +122 loser -1 unit
possible play on Twins tomorrow depending on line move.
Next play will be for one unit. Remember......goal is to win one unit, but we do not increase our units until we get a win.
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05-23-07 05:08 AM |
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W.R.A.G.
Registered: Mar 2007
Posts: 195
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1 question
might be a dumb question but what does "filter games when 1 pitcher does not have 40 innings pitched" mean exactly?
Thanks.
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05-23-07 10:12 AM |
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W.R.A.G.
Registered: Mar 2007
Posts: 195
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Looks right to me zac. That's what i got. I assume 40 ip means lifetime?
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05-23-07 11:06 PM |
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W.R.A.G.
Registered: Mar 2007
Posts: 195
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I would stay away from feist. I see 3 wrong ERA for thurs. Use MLB or covers stats-sheets.
Nice win twins!
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05-24-07 12:15 AM |
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W.R.A.G.
Registered: Mar 2007
Posts: 195
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by the way. KC PHIL HUST are thurs plays. I think.
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05-24-07 12:18 AM |
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ecarc
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Sep 2005
Posts: 581
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update
Sorry, but I don't have computer access until around this time on weekdays. I would appreciate it if some of you could help out on day games like today.
Zac- you were correct in making the Twins a play. I was not able to make the bet, but I will include it in the overall record for tracking purposes.
Wrag- If one pitcher does not have at least 40 innings of work then it becomes a no play.
Kansas City looks like a definite play tomorrow, unless two of the solid baseball cappers in the Den are on the other side. The list I will use includes: Osk, Craiger, BnB, Wabi, Spot On, Bonds, RD, ActionBrett and Player (although I haven't seen him post in a while). All of these cappers have different styles of capping and have proven to be successful over time.
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05-24-07 12:37 AM |
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ecarc
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Sep 2005
Posts: 581
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update
Wrag-
Seattle is a favorite tomorrow so no play
Owings for Arizona does not have 40 innings so no play
Possible plays for tomorrow are KC and Philly
You can find innings pitched using Covers.com. I use their opening lines and Philly is at +109. This needs to move to +110 by tomorrow.
Overall record : 1-1 0 units
Series 1- WL
If Philly and KC become a play then I will play one of them in Series 1 and start another series for the other team.
Either way, the plays will be for one unit.
Sidenote: Bbaffert said to not use era's at 5 > for the underdog. I disagree with him. The record, although a small sample, seems to be consistent with the records of the <5 Eras.
I
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05-24-07 12:46 AM |
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ecarc
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Sep 2005
Posts: 581
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correction
Series 1- LW
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05-24-07 12:47 AM |
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W.R.A.G.
Registered: Mar 2007
Posts: 195
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PHLI.+121
KC.+116
Both are plays but i HATE both. I have 24 MLB "rules". 5 of them, which is outstanding, say Clev. However 2 of them saty KC so i can't bet either.
"rules" are 1-1 on phil-fl so i don't know what i'll do.
GL whatever you decide.
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05-24-07 10:16 PM |
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ecarc
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Sep 2005
Posts: 581
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Zac - It's one unit on KC because the objective is to win one unit. We don't want to bet any more than we have to. Once we win one unit we start a new series.
Wrag- Good luck on whatever you play.
Philly is a no play with Action and BnB on Florida
The only play is on KC for one unit
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05-25-07 12:56 AM |
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