Both safeties out for Indy who ha s struggled stopping the run.

Not saying that Cincy can run like Jax but they have more balance. Its hard for Manning to play a big chart when he is on the sideline.
I got 3.5 with my local. Why all the Indy love?

Colts lost 3 in a row.

The sharp bettors who are backing Indy also have their reasons. Peyton Manning and his prolific receiving corps face a Cincinnati secondary that also sits in the league’s basement. And despite their defensive problems, the Colts are still undefeated straight up at home.

straight from covers.com write up

MNF: Top five reasons Indianapolis will cover

By Josh Hansen
Sun, Dec 17, 2006


This isn’t 2005. I know it. Indy knows it. Bookies do too.

But although the Colts don’t resemble anything like the thoroughbreds of the past, they’re still the Colts. And getting them at -3 on their home field might be the best value Indy bettors have seen in years.

Here are five reasons why I`m betting on the Colts this week:

5) It`s a bad line

Before people dig too deep into the ‘recent meetings’ section of our matchup page, I’d like to point out that a) seven of those games were in the preseason and b) Indy’s average margin of victory in its three regular season wins over the Bengals was 12 points.

Realistically, in a shootout, the final score is unlikely to be a field goal. It’s like ending a the Indianapolis 500 under caution. When it happens, you feel sick to your stomach knowing you’ll never get those three hours of your life back.

So don’t expect that to happen here. Field goals accounted for only 12 of the 82 combined points during last year’s slugfest as the two offenses combined for 943 yards and 10 touchdowns. The same sort of output is expected this time around, making it more likely the game will be decided by seven points and not three.

4) Cincinnati`s secondary

What`s all this talk about Cincinnati’s secondary lately?

The 510 passing yards surrendered to Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints can’t be cause for celebration. I don’t see much reason to cheer for shutting down the Cleveland Browns and Oakland Raiders – 21st and 32nd in NFL passing yards respectively.

Steve McNair’s 227 yards on 26-of-43 passes is misleading too. Baltimore rarely attacks downfield. The Ravens rely on the run and short passes, evident by the fact McNair’s longest completion in the Bengals win was 15 yards, not counting the 36-yard- touchdown reception by Derrick Mason in the final minute.

Any way you cut it, Cincinnati’s secondary still ranks last in the league. The Benagls are allowing 238.5 yards per game and face the NFL’s most dangerous quarterback Monday night.

3) No place like dome

So let me get this straight, the Colts and Bengals would be equal on a neutral field?

The home team may automatically get three points on the line but to think that’s the only thing favoring the Colts here is ridiculous. Indy would whip the Bengals on a neutral field, so just imagine what they’ll do at the RCA Dome.

The Colts are 20-2 over the last three years at home, including a perfect 6-0 (4-2 ATS) in 2006. Yes, they have looked complacent at times this season. The one-point wins over Tennessee and Buffalo and the close call versus Jacksonville didn’t exactly raise Indy’s stock.

But don’t forget, the Colts won their other three home games by an average of 15.6 points.

2) Bengals bandwagon

Dogging the Bengals on Monday night was a smart move by the bookies. The public can’t resist a primetime underdog and just don’t trust the Colts right now. Three points isn’t much to ask, especially considering the Bengals have won four in a row straight up and against the number.

But that’s how sportsbooks are suckering bettors into taking the Bengals. Joe Public thinks he’s found solid value in the dog against the struggling Colts. He sees these teams are heading in opposite directions so why not take a chance on the Bengals? They’re only 3-point underdogs. Plus, Indy has lost three of four and can’t stop the run. Cincinnati’s Rudi Johnson should have a monster game.

Oh, the shame.

Sharp bettors know better than this. They’ve been around long enough and recognize a trap when they see one.

1) Peyton Manning

Few quarterbacks in the league can change a game like Peyton Manning.

Manning has overcome the losses of running back Edgerrin James (now with Arizona) and wide receiver Brandon Stokley (out for the season with a blown Achilles) without missing a beat. Heading into Sunday, he ranked second in touchdown passes (22), third in passing yards per game (279.1) and had thrown only nine interceptions all year.

Manning`s also made up for a bumbling run defense which has forced him into leading two late comeback wins against the Titants and Jets.

Manning may need another Monday night with Rudi Johnson bearing down on Indy’s last-ranked run defense. But in a shootout, I’d take Manning over Carson Palmer any day.

I’ll even spot Palmer three points.


... I liked this write up and it pin pointed exactly what I would have said but i did not have to do anything but copy and paste

Just here on the board? SI at www.sportsinsights.com a reliable source of real number of wagers being placed via the books that we all use have it in favor of Cincy as far as the number of peeps betting the lines.

Hey if you give me Indy as a Joe Pub Fade and all they have to cover is 3 pts I am in.

115,622 bets placed at the time of this post and 53% are Spread for Cincy and 53% are ML for Cincy.

Once again Joe Public is jumping off of the Indy Band Wagon based on recent performances of both teams. Typically not a good way to get value in your plays

Give me INDY -3 for 2.5 units!!

GOoOoOoO Colts!!!

GLTA - Ramp

We ll know in a few hours. Josh Hansen, who lets face it gets paid from the off shores, make good points. I will take the 3.5 and I look for a field goal game either way. A first time safety agst. Tj, Chad and Carson, I will take my chances.

Maybe it's because Cinci is 1-17 SU & 2-16 ATS away
vs a 700+ opponent

I got Indy +6.5 pts. to win a 10 pt teaser,would you take that?

AMOV against CINN is 12... 3 is not enough

Indy will NOT lose 3 straight...simple as that