Fever have moved from +4.5 to +5.5 at Sun.

63% of bets are on Fever to cover in Game 1.

81% of bets are on OVER 163.5 at BetMGM

Atlanta faces a big disadvantage against New York because of its inability to hit 3-pointers. The Dream ranked 10th in 3-point field goals during the regular season, averaging six per game.

For a team that shoots as poorly as the Dream does on the perimeter, it's a bit surprising that it attempted more 3-pointers than the Sky, Wings and Sun, three teams that all shot for a better percentage from beyond the arc.

As a result, if the Dream falls behind early, it tends to struggle to make up large deficits. Atlanta's offense plummeted down the stretch, finishing last in efficiency with 96.6 points per 100 possessions.

There are too many empty offensive possessions for this Atlanta team that shot a league-worst 40.8% from the floor.

What's most disappointing about Atlanta is it doesn't do enough of the little things to give itself a chance to overcome its scoring woes. It played at the second slowest tempo, ranked 10th in fastbreak points and 11th in points off turnovers.

You almost get the sense that Atlanta's success has less to do with its own gameplay than with its opponents having a bad shooting night.

Given how the Liberty approached its final game of the regular season, there's not much to take away from the loss. New York would've decided ahead of time to limit its starters' minutes and that an Atlanta victory would mean the two teams would face one another three days later in the playoffs.

Hence, it would've been foolish for Liberty to divulge any secrets about its approach in a series with the Dream.

However, the reality is that New York doesn't have to search too long for answers on how to beat Atlanta.

New York succeeds in outpacing teams on both sides of the court because of its efficiency. It's the only team that finished the regular season with a double-digit Net Rating (+11.7).

You rarely see this Liberty take bad shots. It often passes up good shots for even better ones while finishing second in assists with 22.8 per game. New York is also an excellent rebounding team (tied for first—36.6), which helps to give it extra possessions.

Its 29 3-point attempts per game were almost 2.5 more than any other team.

Therefore, New York, already a decent 3-point shooting team, can get more bites at the apple from beyond the arc. That recipe can only lead to heartache if you're an Atlanta Dream fan.

New York has often done a tremendous job stymying Howard, Atlanta's best player. She averaged 12 points against the Liberty this season and 14.2 points in the last six meetings.

The Liberty plays with three players on the frontcourt, which means it can use a taller player to defend Howard, a bigger guard at 6-foot-2.

Howard does have a tendency to take some bad shots. She's shooting 37.1% from the floor, and her 8.1 3-pointers per game are a bit high for a player averaging 32.9% from distance.

Should she continue to struggle, she'll need to be effective in other ways to help her team win.

One angle that's been somewhat overlooked is her ability to fill out the scoresheet with rebounds and assists. Howard's rebound+assists prop is 6.5, noticeably below her average (7.5) and median (7.0) this season.

Moreover, she's exceeded that prop number in five of her last six meetings against New York, including on Thursday when she only played 25 minutes, nine her season average of 33.9.

We can also isolate her rebounding prop, which is available at 3.5.

She's averaging 4.4 rebounds per game this season, slightly lower than her average of 4.5 boards in the last six meetings against New York.

While it's easy to simply focus on how Howard's scoring will impact the game, if her offensive struggles continue, look for her to contribute in other ways.

The Indiana Fever (20-20 this season) are set for Caitlin Clark's playoff debut on Sunday as they take on the 3-seed Chicago Sun (28-12) in Game 1 of this Eastern Conference WNBA playoff series. Fever vs. Sun starts at 3 p.m. ET airing live on ABC and streaming on YouTube TV and ESPN+.

The Fever are consensus 5.5-point underdogs to the Sun, with the spread having opened at Sun -4.5. The Fever are +185 on the moneyline to pull off the upset, with the Sun -225 to take advantage of home court. The over/under is 163.5 points scored.

I know why you're here — and we're going to talk about her — but you should know that this isn't going to be easy at all. Clark and the Fever are facing arguably the league's best defense, led by DiJonai Carrington and Alyssa Thomas.

The Fever went 1-3 against the Sun this season, but the one win was in August, and was the only game played between the two teams after June.

It was amid the notable season-ending stretch for the Fever, where they looked like one of the best teams in the W, ending the campaign 9-5 following the Olympic break.

And since you'll wanna know, Clark averaged 24.3 points, 8.9 assists, 5.5 rebounds and shot about 44/36/93 splits before the meaningless season finale. She also averaged 5.8 turnovers per contest — a carryover from college, where she consistently was among the league leaders in turnovers. Clark averaged 5.6 turnovers per game, leading second place by 2.0.

Why is this significant — well, other than the fact that you don't want high turnover games in playoff basketball, it's because the Sun force the most turnovers in the league, which is at least partly why their defense is consistently elite. The Sun force a league-high 19.6 turnovers per 100 possessions, and coincidentally, the Fever force a league-low 14.5 per 100 possessions.

The Fever's late-season run also needs to be attributed to the play of Kelsey Mitchell and Aaliyah Boston.

Mitchell is the forever unsung hero of the team, who averaged 24.8 points in her last 13 games before the season ender, in which she logged five minutes. Mitchell shot 50/45/87 in those games.

Boston logged 13.8 points, 9.6 boards and 4.2 assists in the same stretch, converting over 51 percent from the field.

Defense, defense, defense. That's what we're paying most attention to here.

The Sun were 21-18-1 to the over this season, but often with low totals, even ones lower than the 163.5 mark for Game 1 — two of four Fever vs. Sun games have gone under this season. (That means two others went over.)

The Sun, like the Fever, are generally a better over bet at home, where they're 13-6-1 to the over, and the Fever are 13-7 to the over on the road. Against the spread, Connecticut is 13-14-1 as the betting favorite this season, whereas the Fever finished an even 12-12 as the underdog.

This series will also be a clash in pace. The Fever are the second fastest team in the league, playing at a 79.8 pace, while the methodical Sun are the league slowest 75.8.

The Sun were uneasy out of the break, and in the final month of the season, they lost as many games (finishing 10-6) as they did in two months of WNBA ball before the Olympics (18-6).

And as far as who gets it done, it'll change on a night-to-night basis, which is what makes the Sun balanced, difficult to guard, and, at the same time, not always reliable on offense. But we're to expect big minutes of Thomas, Carrington, DeWanna Bonner, Brionna Jones, Marina Mabrey and Tyasha Harris.

As mentioned earlier, Carrington went over in all four games against the Fever. Carrington averaged 17.8 points vs. the Fever, scoring 16, 14, 22 and 19. And the Fever's defense hasn't been anything like the Sun's this season, even if it did look better down the stretch than it had early on this season.

On Sunday afternoon, the W’s hottest team, Minnesota, hosts the Phoenix Mercury in the first game of the playoffs.

Surprisingly, the biggest storyline entering this series is not the Lynx’s recent post-break play but rather the fact that this could be the last few games we see from Diana Taurasi, the greatest woman’s basketball player ever.

Can Phoenix rally around each other and put together a potential title run for Taurasi, or will the Lynx keep up their incredible play on both ends of the floor?

Phoenix had one of the most significant year-over-year improvements, stringing together ten more wins this season than in 2023.

Signing Kahleah Copper and Natasha Cloud to join the talented tandem of Brittney Griner and Taurasi proved to be two of the better off-season additions.

Still, this Mercury unit has glaring weaknesses that have limited their ability to be a top-tier team.

For one, they have been atrocious on the glass this season, ranking dead-last in rebounding percentage.

Rebounding has been the determinant factor in virtually all of the Mercury’s close games. In fact, of their 21 losses, they have only won the rebounding battle twice.

Additionally, Phoenix’s perimeter defense has been non-existent, allowing opponents to take the most 3-pointers of any team in the W.

If a team is going to surrender many attempts from behind the arc, it better have an elite interior defense.

Unfortunately, that has also not been the case, as the Mercury has allowed opponents to score the most second-chance points.

It is in no way an exaggeration to say that the Lynx have been the best post-All-Star-break team in the W.

The Lynx had won 13 of their past 14 games before punting their regular season finale to avoid any untimely injuries; they had already locked up the No. 2 seed and had nothing to gain and a lot to lose.

In those 14 games, Minnesota had the best record (13-1), the highest field goal percentage (47.8%), and the second-highest 3-point percentage (37.8%). It also committed the fourth-fewest turnovers per game while holding opponents to the third-lowest effective field goal percentage (47.6%).

While the Lynx’s improved offensive execution and defensive effort have been massive contributors to their post-break surge, their improved rebounding is the most significant difference from the beginning of the season until now.

Before the Olympics and All-Star break, the Lynx ranked 11th (out of 12 teams) in rebounding percentage, with only a 0.1% advantage over last place.

However, during that 14-game stretch, Minnesota had the sixth-highest rebounding percentage in the W, which is not elite by any stretch of the imagination but is serviceable given this team's other talents.

The Lynx had a net rating of +15.3 and a true shooting percentage of 55.4%, boasting a 44/41/75 split in those four games.

Minnesota’s 41% mark from 3-point land is eye-popping, especially on a high volume. In fact, the Lynx shot just shy of 30 3-pointers per game during its regular-season matchups against the Mercury.

And that is just the problem for Phoenix: it can’t defend the 3-point line or rebound the ball.

The Lynx have been the best 3-point shooting team in the W all season, and they should light up this poor Mercury perimeter defense.

Most bet (tickets) Sun-Fever player props at BetMGM

1. Caitlin Clark over 20.5 points

2. Caitlin Clark under 8.5 assists

3. Caitlin Clark over 3.5 three-pointers

Updated Sun-Fever Game 1 betting at BetMGM

Sun open -4.5, now -6.5
▪️ 32% of bets, 46% of money is on Sun

Total open 162.5, now 164.5
▪️ 74% of bets, 90% of money is on Over

Fever open +160, now +200
▪️ 81% of bets, 55% of money is on Fever