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msudogs
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Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

NCAAF Splits Updates

-Double-digit road favorites have been solid producers in the revenge role, going 47-34 ATS (58%) since 2016.
System Match (PLAY): FRESNO STATE (-14.5 at New Mexico)

(385) VANDERBILT at (386) MISSOURI
*Under the total is 6-0 in the last six of the Vandy-Mizzou series in Columbia
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 53.5)

Old Post 09-21-24 02:38 PM
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msudogs
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Huge Week-To-Week Point Spread Movement
CFB teams that see their point spread in one game being at least 52 points worse than the prior game have performed very well in that follow-up contest since 2012, going 94-63 ATS (59.9%).
System Match (PLAY ALL): GEORGIA TECH (+10.5 at Louisville), GEORGIA SOUTHERN (+36 at Ole Miss)

* VIRGINIA TECH is 5-19 (20.8%) ATS in the last 24 games following up a SU win
System Match: FADE VIRGINIA TECH (-3.5 vs. Rutgers)

* NORTHERN ILLINOIS is 5-16-1 (23.8%) ATS in the last 22 home games
System Match: FADE NORTHERN ILLINOIS (-14 vs. Buffalo)

Old Post 09-21-24 02:40 PM
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msudogs
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CFB DK Betting Splits system #9: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 45 or lower, 70%+ super majority handle bettors siding with the Under have gone 25-13 (63.2%). Because not many public bettors embrace betting Unders, this doesn’t produce a lot of plays but the super handle majority has been sharp.

System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): RICE-ARMY, BUFFALO-NORTHERN ILLINOIS, RUTGERS-VA TECH, CALIFORNIA-FLORIDA STATE

Old Post 09-21-24 02:40 PM
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CFB DK Betting Splits system #10: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 45 or lower, 75%+ super majority number of bets bettors bucking the low total and siding with the Over have gone 52-34 (60.5%). This system improved its win percentage in 2023. Again, not a ton of plays here in the grand scheme but the more public option of number of bets has been pretty good when going against the grain.

System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): NEBRASKA-ILLINOIS, OHIO-KENTUCKY, RUTGERS-VA TECH, MIAMI (OH)-NOTRE DAME, NORTHWESTERN-WASHINGTON, NEW MEXICO STATE-SAM HOUSTON STATE

Old Post 09-21-24 02:42 PM
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msudogs
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Best & Worst College Football Revenge Teams (since 2016)

Best

* FRESNO ST is 12-12 SU and 15-7 ATS (68%) in revenge mode since 2016
System Match: PLAY FRESNO STATE (-14.5 at New Mexico)

* C MICHIGAN is 16-11 SU and 15-11 ATS (57.7%) in revenge mode since 2016
System Match: PLAY CENTRAL MICHIGAN (-6.5 vs Ball State)

* NAVY is 13-23 SU and 23-13 ATS (63.9%) in revenge mode since 2016
System Match: PLAY NAVY (+10 vs Memphis)

Old Post 09-21-24 02:42 PM
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msudogs
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Huge week-to-week point spread movement
CFB teams that see their point spread in one game being at least 52 points worse than the prior game have performed very well in that follow-up contest since 2012, going 94-63 ATS (59.9%).

System Match (PLAY ALL): GEORGIA TECH (+10.5 at Louisville), GEORGIA SOUTHERN (+36 at Ole Miss)

Old Post 09-21-24 03:22 PM
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Prolific offensive performances don’t last
FBS teams that gain 735 or more yards offensively in their prior game have gone just 29-44 ATS (39.7%) in the follow up contest since 2012.

System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (FL) (-16.5 at USF), TENNESSEE (-7 at Oklahoma)

Old Post 09-21-24 03:22 PM
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* ARIZONA STATE is 24-13-1 (64.9%) ATS as Underdog since 2018
System Match: PLAY ARIZONA STATE (+3 at Texas Tech)

* ARKANSAS is 1-12 (7.7%) ATS coming off SU Win since 2020
System Match: FADE ARKANSAS (+3.5 at Auburn)

* BALL STATE is 31-16 (66%) Under the total over last four seasons
System Match: PLAY UNDER in Ball St-CMU (o/u at 53)

* BOISE STATE is on a 11-2 (84.6%) ATS run following a SU loss
System Match: PLAY BOISE STATE (-41.5 vs Portland State)

* BOWLING GREEN is 14-30 (31.8%) ATS as Underdog since 2019
* BOWLING GREEN is 6-12 (33.3%) ATS in Non-Conference games since 2019
Systems Match: FADE BOWLING GREEN (+23 at Texas A&M)

* CALIFORNIA is 25-13 (65.8%) ATS as Underdog since 2018
System Match: PLAY CALIFORNIA (+2.5 at Florida State)

* DUKE is 31-14 (68.9%) ATS in Non-Conference games since 2014
System Match: PLAY DUKE (-14.5 at MTSU)

* FLA ATLANTIC is 4-15 (21.1%) ATS in the last 19 games following a SU win
System Match: FADE FLORIDA ATLANTIC (+2.5 at UConn)

* FLORIDA STATE is 8-18 (30.8%) ATS in Conference games since 2021
System Match: FADE FLORIDA STATE (-2.5 vs California)

* FRESNO STATE is 26-15-1 (63.4%) Under the total since 2021
* FRESNO STATE is 18-9 (66.7%) ATS coming off SU Win since 2021
Systems Match: PLAY FRESNO STATE (-14.5 at New Mexico), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 61.5)

Old Post 09-21-24 03:22 PM
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* HAWAII is 9-25 (27.3%) ATS as Favorite since 2015
System Match: FADE HAWAII (-8.5 vs. UNI)

* IOWA is 42-23 (64.6%) Under the total in last 65 games
System Match: PLAY UNDER in Iowa-Minnesota (o/u at 35.5)

* KANSAS is 32-18 (64%) Over the total since 2019
System Match: PLAY OVER in Kansas-WVU (o/u at 56)

* KANSAS STATE is 41-23-2 (64.1%) ATS since 2019
System Match: PLAY KANSAS STATE (-7 at BYU)

* KENT STATE is 6-18 (25%) ATS in the last 24 games as an Underdog
System Match: FADE KENT ST (+49 at Penn State)

* LOUISIANA TECH is 32-16-1 (66.7%) Over the total since 2019
System Match: PLAY OVER in Tulsa-LA Tech (o/u at 57)

* LSU is 22-8 (73.3%) Over the total since 2022
System Match: PLAY OVER in UCLA-LSU (o/u at 56.5)

* MARYLAND is 17-6 (73.9%) ATS in the last 23 Non-Conference games
System Match: PLAY MARYLAND (-19.5 vs. Villanova)

* MIAMI (OH) is on a 30-15 (66.7%) Under the total run over the last four seasons
System Match: PLAY UNDER in Miami (OH)-Notre Dame (o/u at 44)

* MICHIGAN is 29-16-1 (64.4%) ATS in the last three seasons (including 16-5 ATS in Road/Neutral games)
System Match: PLAY MICHIGAN (+5.5 vs. USC)

* MISSISSIPPI STATE is 25-15 (62.5%) UNDER the total since 2021
* MISSISSIPPI STATE is 14-9 (60.9%) ATS at Home since 2021
Systems Match: PLAY MISSISSIPPI STATE (+6 vs. Florida), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 58.5)

Old Post 09-21-24 03:23 PM
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* NEW MEXICO is 17-37 (31.5%) ATS in Conference games since 2017
System Match: FADE NEW MEXICO (+14.5 vs Fresno State)

* NEW MEXICO STATE is 27-16 (62.8%) ATS in the last three seasons (including 11-4 ATS as a favorite)
System Match: PLAY NEW MEXICO STATE (+16.5 at Sam Houston State)

* NORTHERN ILLINOIS is 5-16-1 (23.8%) ATS in the last 22 home games
System Match: FADE NORTHERN ILLINOIS (-14 vs Buffalo)

* OREGON STATE is 25-7 (78.1%) ATS in home games over the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY OREGON STATE (-5.5 vs. Purdue)

* PENN STATE is 30-12 (71.4%) ATS coming off SU Win since 2019
System Match: PLAY PENN STATE (-49 vs Kent State)

* PITTSBURGH is 35-17 (67.3%) Over the total since 2020
System Match: PLAY OVER in Youngstown State-Pitt (o/u at 59.5)

* PURDUE is 16-10 (61.5%) ATS as Underdog since 2020
System Match: PLAY PURDUE (+5.5 at Oregon State)

* RUTGERS has gone 12-3 (80%) ATS in last 15 non-conference games
System Match: PLAY RUTGERS (+3.5 at

* SOUTH CAROLINA is 11-5 (68.8%) ATS as a favorite in the last four seasons
System Match: PLAY SOUTH CAROLINA (-28.5 vs. Akron)

* TEMPLE is 14-10 (58.3%) ATS coming off SU loss since 2020
System Match: PLAY TEMPLE (+6 vs. Utah State)

* TEXAS A&M is 17-7 (70.8%) ATS in non-conference games since 2018
System Match: PLAY TEXAS A&M (-23 vs. Bowling Green)

Old Post 09-21-24 03:23 PM
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* TULANE is 41-21 (66.1%) ATS as favorite since 2014
System Match: PLAY TULANE (-3 at Louisiana)

* TULSA is 23-8-1 (74.2%) ATS in road/neutral games over last four seasons
System Match: PLAY TULSA (+3.5 at LA Tech)

* TX-SAN ANTONIO is 4-14 (22.2%) ATS at home since 2021
System Match: FADE UTSA (-35.5 vs Houston Christian)

* UCLA is 8-18 (30.8%) ATS in non-conference games since 2015
System Match: FADE UCLA (+24 at LSU)

* VIRGINIA TECH is 5-19 (20.8%) ATS in the last 24 games following up a SU win
System Match: FADE VIRGINIA TECH (-3.5 vs. Rutgers)

* WASHINGTON is just 2-7 (22.2%) ATS in the last nine games following a SU loss
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON (-10.5 vs. Northwestern)

* W KENTUCKY is 11-21 (34.4%) ATS as favorite since 2019
System Match: FADE WESTERN KENTUCKY (*if they become a favorite vs Toledo, +2.5 currently)

* WEST VIRGINIA has gone 16-8 ATS (66.7%) at home in the last four seasons
System Match: PLAY WEST VIRGINIA (-2.5 vs. Kansas)

Old Post 09-21-24 03:24 PM
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