MLB favorites led 10-5 on Friday w/ upsets by MIA +185 vs. ATL, SF +176 at KC, SEA +119 at TEX, TB +113 vs. TOR and CLE +102 at STL; home teams 8-7; Unders 8-7; faves 1,271-948 w/ 49 pick-'ems; home teams 1,189-1,072 w/ 7 neutral; Overs 1,090-1,088-88 w/ 2 N/A

Sean Manaea has been incredibly sharp of late, as the New York Mets are making a push for a playoff spot. Manaea has a 3.26 ERA and a 3.73 xERA on the year. He has an Average Exit Velocity under 89 mph and an above average Hard-Hit Rate. His ground-ball rate could use some work, but he is striking out almost 26% of batters and missing bats consistently.

His opponent will be Ranger Suárez and the Philadelphia Phillies. Suárez has a 3.13 ERA and a 3.38 xERA on the season. Unlike Manaea, Suárez won't produce many strikeouts, but can limit walks and hard contact, and keep the ball on the ground.

However, the New York Mets have thrived against lefties, especially in the past month. In that timeframe, the Mets have a 131 wRC+, a 9.8% walk rate and a 18.5% strikeout rate.

The Phillies have a 115 wRC+, a 8.9% walk rate and a 18.6% strikeout rate over the past month against lefties.

In relief, the Mets have a 3.72 xFIP, a 29.2% strikeout rate and a 9.7% walk rate in the past month.

Meanwhile, the Phillies bullpen has a 3.97 xFIP, a 21.5% strikeout rate and a 7.7% walk rate in that timeframe.

The Mets are even when it comes to starting pitching and better in the bullpen and at the plate, so bet the Mets moneyline. Play to New York to -135.

Trend: BOS is 6-21 (-17.32 units) in the months of August/September by starter Kutter Crawford
System Match: FADE BOSTON (+124 vs MIN)

Trend: FAVORITES are 16-5 (76.2%, +8.13 units) in the last 21 games in the BAL-DET series
– The R.O.I. on this trend is 38.7%
System Matches: PLAY BALTIMORE (-125 vs DET)

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 284-239 (54.3%) for +40.51 units and an ROI of 7.7% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): NY METS (-118 vs. PHI)

(955) ATLANTA (83-71) at (956) MIAMI (57-97)
Trend: ATL is 18-7 (+8.45 units) in road game starts by Max Fried in the las two seasons
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (-265 at MIA)

(957) PHILADELPHIA (92-62) at (958) NEW YORK-NL (85-69)
Trend: PHI is 16-7 (+9.16 units) in line range -115 to +115 with starter Ranger Suarez in the last four seasons
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-102 at NYM)
Trend: Sean Manaea is 5-7 (-3.79 units) against NL East opponents in the last six seasons
System Match: FADE NY METS (-118 vs. PHI)

(959) ARIZONA (86-68) at (960) MILWAUKEE (88-66)
Trend: Aaron Civale is 19-9 (+2.52 units) in home night games as a favorite in the last six seasons
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-115 vs AZ)

(961) COLORADO (59-95) at (962) LOS ANGELES-NL (92-62)
Trend: Cal Quantrill is 6-15 (-4.26 units) as an underdog of +150 or more in last five seasons
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+230 at LAD)

Trend: Walker Buehler has dominated lesser competition, going 21-3 (+13.70 units) against teams with a < 40% win pct since 2019
System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-285 vs. COL)

(965) MINNESOTA (81-73) at (966) BOSTON (76-78)
Trend: BOS is 6-21 (-17.32 units) in the months of August/September by starter Kutter Crawford
System Match: FADE BOSTON (+124 vs. MIN)

(973) NEW YORK-AL (90-64) at (974) OAKLAND (67-87)
Trend: Carlos Rodon not good in -185 to -210 favorite line range, going 2-10 (-17.20 units) in the last six seasons
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES (*if they fall into this line range, -180 currently)

(975) SAN FRANCISCO (75-79) at (976) KANSAS CITY (82-72)
Trend: KC is 8-2 (+8.75 units) vs NL West teams with starter Brady Singer
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-155 vs. SF)