The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Detroit Lions (-3, 52.5) at Arizona Cardinals
The Lions (1-1) are coming off a 20-16 loss to the Buccaneers, losing outright as 7.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Cardinals (1-1) just demolished the Rams 41-10, easily covering as 1-point home favorites. This line opened with Detroit listed as a 4.5-point road favorite. The public is slighting leaning toward laying the points with Detroit. However, despite 53% of spread bets taking the Lions we’ve seen Detroit fall from -4.5 to -3. Some shops are even hinting at a further dip down to -2.5. Essentially, all movement and liability is on the Cardinals plus the points at home. Conference home dogs +4 or less are 409-332 ATS (55%) with a 7% ROI since 2019. Kyler Murray is 26-14 ATS (65%) with a 25% ROI as a dog in his career. The Cardinals also have value as a “dog who can score,” ranking 2nd in the NFL in points per game with 34.5, thereby keeping pace and possibly backdoor covering. We could also be looking at a shootout, as the total has risen from 51.5 to 52.5. The over is receiving 67% of bets but 80% of dollars, indicating public support but also respected smart money on the over. Brad Rogers, the lead ref, is 59-46 (56%) to the over historically.
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09-18-24 09:24 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans (-3, 36.5)
The Packers (1-1) are coming off a 16-10 win over the Colts, winning outright as 3-point home dogs. On the flip side, the Titans (0-2) just fell to the Jets 24-17, failing to cover as 4-point home dogs. This line opened with Tennessee listed as a short 1.5-point home favorite. The public thinks the wrong team is favored and they’re rushing to the window to back Green Bay plus the points. However, despite 69% of spread bets taking the Packers we’ve actually seen this line move further toward the Titans -1.5 to -3. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Tennessee, with pros fading the trendy dog Packers and instead backing the contrarian favorite Titans at home. Tennessee is only receiving 31% of spread bets but 60% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split. Teams that are 0-2 have gone 38-22 ATS (63%) with a 23% ROI in Week 3 since 2017. Those looking to hold their nose and back the sharp Titans line move but wary of laying a key number in what might end up being a close game could instead elect to play Tennessee on the moneyline at -155. Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 39.5 to 36.5. The under is receiving 50% of bets but a whopping 90% of dollars, a massive wiseguy under bet split.
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09-18-24 09:26 PM |
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