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msudogs
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MLB Lagniappe 8/16

Washington (55-67) @ Philadelphia (71-50)
— Corbin is 0-3, 9.90 in his last four starts.
— Washington is 3-11 in his last 14 starts.
— over 4-2 last six road starts
— allowed run in first inning: 6-24
— record in first 5 innings: 6-17-1
— He is 6-10, 4.81 in 21 starts vs Philly.

— Nationals split their last 12 games.
— They’re 27-35 on road.
— over 13-6 last 19 games
— scored run in first inning: 23-122
— record in first 5 innings: 47-62-13
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-2-5

— Nola is 0-2, 4.88 in his last five starts.
— Phillies lost his last five starts.
— over 8-3 last 11 starts
— allowed run in first inning: 6-24
— record in first 5 innings: 15-5-4
— He is 9-8, 3.70 in 31 starts vs Washington.

— Phillies are 10-18 in their last 28 games.
— They’re 40-22 at home.
— over 12-4 last sixteen games
— scored run in first inning: 45-121
— record in first 5 innings: 69-41-11
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 5-4.2-3

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Miami (45-76) @ @ NY Mets (62-59)
— Munoz is 1-1, 7.24 in his last three starts.
— Marlins are 4-10 in his starts.
— over 5-1 last six
— allowed run in first inning: 1-14
— record in first 5 innings: 5-9
— He is 0-1, 0.82 in two starts against the Mets.

— Marlins are 6-10 in their last 16 games.
— Miami is 21-37 on road.
— Marlins are 5-14 in road series openers.
— over 7-2 last nine games.
— scored run in first inning: 30-121
— record in first 5 innings: 42-67-12
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2-3-x

— Manaea is 2-1, 1.59 in his last three starts.
— Mets are 7-2 in his last nine starts.
— under 3-0 last three starts
— allowed run in first inning: 4-23
— record in first 5 innings: 12-7-4
— He is 1-2, 5.85 in four starts vs Miami.

— New York is 4-8 in its last dozen games.
— Mets are 31-31 at home.
— Mets are 7-1 in last eight home series openers.
— over 4-0 last four games
— scored run in first inning: 29-121
— record in first 5 innings: 52-51-18
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 5-2.2-5

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Los Angeles (71-51) @ St Louis (60-61)
— Dodgers haven’t named a starter.

— Dodgers are 8-4 in their last dozen games.
— Dodgers are 6-13 in last 19 road games.
— Dodgers are 13-9 in road series openers.
— over 13-7 last 20 games.
— scored run in first inning: 44-122
— record in first 5 innings: 63-47-12
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4-4.2-3

— Mikolas is 0-1, 7.71 in his last three starts.
— Cardinals are 4-6 in his home starts.
— under 3-1 last four
— allowed run in first inning: 5-24
— record in first 5 innings: 6-15-3
— He is 1-1, 5.06 in five starts vs Los Angeles.

— Cardinals are 1-5 in last six games.
— They’re 31-27 at home.
— Cardinals are 1-6 in last seven home series openers.
— over 4-2 last six games
— scored run in first inning: 28-121
— record in first 5 innings: 45-57-19
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2-3.1-x

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Toronto (57-64) @ Cubs (59-63)
— Rodriguez is 0-2, 3.78 in his last four starts.
— Toronto is 5-7 in his starts.
— under 7-5
— allowed run in first inning: 3-12
— record in first 5 innings: 6-5-1
— He hasn’t pitched against the Cubs.

— Toronto is 7-4 in its last 11 games.
— Blue Jays are 28-33 on road.
— Blue Jays are 9-11 in road series openers.
— over 34-12 last 46 games
— scored run in first inning: 32-121
— record in first 5 innings: 52-53-16
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2-2-2

— Hendricks is 1-3, 6.00 in his last four starts.
— Chicago is 5-11 in his starts.
— under 5-1 last six starts.
— allowed run in first inning: 2-16
— record in first 5 innings: 5-11
— He is 0-1, 5.40 in two starts vs Toronto.

— Cubs lost their last three games.
— They’re 32-27 at home.
— Cubs are 5-10 in last 15 home series openers.
— over 5-2 last seven home games
— scored run in first inning: 27-122
— record in first 5 innings: 49-53-20
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-4-3

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Kansas City (66-55) @ Cincinnati (60-61)
— Lorenzen is 0-0, 3.60 in two starts for KC.
— Overall, he is 5-6, 3.79 in 20 starts TY.
— Royals are 0-2 in his starts.
— over 2-0
— allowed run in first inning: 5-20
— record in first 5 innings: 1-0-1
— He gave up five runs in 6 IP, in his one start vs Cincinnati.
— He played for the Reds from 2015-21

— Royals are 3-5 in last eight games.
— Royals are 28-30 on road
— Royals are 8-11 in road series openers.
— over 14-5 last 19 games
— scored run in first inning: 34-121
— record in first 5 innings: 56-46-19
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4-2-x

— Martinez is 1-0, 0.00 in his last four games (20.1 IP).
— Reds are 3-4 in his starts.
— over 5-2
— allowed run in first inning: 1-7
— record in first 5 innings: 1-4-2
— He is 0-0, 2.08 in five games (2 starts) against the Royals

— Reds are 7-3 in their last ten games.
— They’re 31-31 at home.
— Reds are 10-3 in last 13 home series openers.
— under 4-1 last five games
— scored run in first inning: 33-121
— record in first 5 innings: 56-48-17
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2-7-x

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Seattle (63-59) @ Pittsburgh (56-64)
— Gilbert is 1-1, 0.69 in his last two starts.
— Seattle is 2-5 in his last seven starts.
— under 6-2 last eight starts
— allowed run in first inning: 3-24
— record in first 5 innings: 10-9-5
— He hasn’t pitched against Pittsburgh.

— Seattle lost its last three games.
— Mariners are 26-33 on the road.
— Mariners are 8-11 in road series openers.
— under 4-2 last six games
— scored run in first inning: 33-122
— record in first 5 innings: 56-50-16
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4.1-3-2

— Skenes is 0-2, 3.51 in his last four starts.
— Pittsburgh is 9-6 in his starts.
— under 7-3 last 10 starts
— allowed run in first inning: 4-15
— record in first 5 innings: 8-3-4
— He hasn’t pitched against Seattle.

— Pirates lost their last 10 games.
— They’re 27-31 at home.
— Pirates are 11-8 in home series openers.
— over 11-6 last seventeen games
— scored run in first inning: 23-120
— record in first 5 innings: 47-51-22
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-3-x

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Arizona (69-53) @ Tampa Bay (59-61)
— Nelson is 3-0, 3.02 in his last seven starts.
— Arizona won his last seven starts.
— over 6-2 last eight
— allowed run in first inning: 2-23
— record in first 5 innings: 9-9-5
— He hasn’t pitched against Tampa Bay.

— Arizona is 24-6 in its last 30 games.
— Diamondbacks are 32-27 on road.
— Arizona is 7-12 in road series openers.
— over 15-3 last 18 games
— scored run in first inning: 40-122
— record in first 5 innings: 58-44-20
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2-4-3

— Pepiot is 2-0, 0.77 in his last two starts.
— His last start was July 14th.
— Rays are 9-8 in his starts.
— under 3-1 last four
— allowed run in first inning: 6-17
— record in first 5 innings: 8-8-1
— He is 2-0, 2.20 in three starts vs Arizona.

— Tampa Bay is 4-9 in its last 13 games.
— Rays are 31-34 at home.
— Rays are 2-6 in last eight series openers.
— under 13-4 last 17 games.
— scored run in first inning: 30-120
— record in first 5 innings: 41-62-17
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2-4-x

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Cleveland (72-49) @ Milwaukee (69-52)
— Williams is 2-1, 3.94 in his last three starts.
— Cleveland is 3-5 in his starts.
— under 6-2
— allowed run in first inning: 2-8
— record in first 5 innings: 2-4-2
— He hasn’t pitched against Milwaukee.

— Cleveland won its last five games.
— Guardians are 34-29 on road.
— Guardians are 10-10 in road series openers.
— under 5-2 last seven games
— scored run in first inning: 31-121
— record in first 5 innings: 56-48-17
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3.2-3.1-x

— Civale is 1-2, 5.46 in six starts for Milwaukee.
— Brewers are 2-4 in his starts.
— over 5-1
— allowed run in first inning: 2-6
— record in first 5 innings: 3-2-1
— He gave up 4 runs in 5 IP, in his one start against the Dodgers.
— Civale pitched for Cleveland from 2019-23.

— Brewers are 7-3 in their last ten games.
— They’re 35-24 at home.
— Brewers are 11-8 in home series openers.
— under 4-2 last six games
— scored run in first inning: 33-121
— record in first 5 innings: 54-50-17
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-4-3.1

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Atlanta (64-57) @ LA Angels (52-69)
— Schwellenbach is 1-0, 2.25 in his last three starts.
— Atlanta is 5-7 in his starts.
— under 10-2
— allowed run in first inning: 1-12
— record in first 5 innings: 6-6
— He hasn’t pitched against the Angels.

— Braves won three of last four games.
— They’re 32-31 on road.
— Braves are 11-10 in road series openers.
— over 7-3 last ten games
— scored run in first inning: 34-121
— record in first 5 innings: 56-48-17
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4-2-2.2

— Soriano is 2-0, 2.86 in his last five starts.
— Angels are 6-3 in his last nine starts.
— under 5-1 last six
— allowed run in first inning: 6-19
— record in first 5 innings: 10-8-1
— This is his first start vs Atlanta

— Angels are 1-5 in their last six games.
— They’re 26-38 at home.
— Angels are 2-10 in last 12 series openers.
— under 5-1 last six home games
— scored run in first inning: 26-121
— record in first 5 innings: 43-66-12
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4-6-3.1

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Bronx (72-50) @ Detroit (59-63)
— Cole is 1-1, 4.03 in his last four starts.
— New York is 5-4 in his starts.
— over 6-3
— allowed run in first inning: 2-9
— record in first 5 innings: 4-4-1
— He is 9-1, 1.99 in 13 starts vs Detroit.

— New York is 4-4 in its last eight games.
— They’re 40-23 on road.
— New York is 2-5 in last seven road series openers.
— over 34-13 last 47 games
— scored run in first inning: 44-122
— record in first 5 innings: 61-47-14
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2-4-x

— Detroit hasn’t named a starter.

— Detroit won its last four games.
— Tigers are 29-31 at home.
— Tigers are 7-12 in home series openers.
— under 7-3 last ten games
— scored run in first inning: 37-122
— record in first 5 innings: 49-54-19
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-4.1-3.1

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Boston (63-57) @ Baltimore (72-50)
— Red Sox haven’t named a starter.

— Red Sox lost six of last eight games.
— They’re 34-25 on road.
— over 20-4 last 24 games
— scored run in first inning: 36-120
— record in first 5 innings: 63-43-14
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3.2-3.1-3

— Burnes is 3-0, 4.06 in his last five starts.
— Orioles are 12-3 in his last 15 starts.
— over 11-4 last 15
— allowed run in first inning: 5-24
— record in first 5 innings: 17-5-2
— He is 2-0, 1.42 in three starts vs Boston.

— Baltimore is 7-4 in its last 11 games.
— Orioles are 36-26 at home.
— over 20-7 last 27 games
— scored run in first inning: 34-122
— record in first 5 innings: 66-44-12
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4-3-3

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Minnesota (67-53) @ Texas (56-65)
— Woods-Richardson is 0-2, 4.87 in his last four starts.
— Minnesota is 13-7 in his starts.
— under 4-2 last six
— allowed run in first inning: 2-20
— record in first 5 innings: 8-6-6
— He hasn’t pitched against Texas.

— Twins are 10-5 in their last 15 games.
— Twins are 32-29 on road.
— over 6-4 last ten games.
— scored run in first inning: 35-121
— record in first 5 innings: 55-51-15
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4-3-3

— Heaney is 0-2, 6.75 in his last four starts.
— Rangers are 7-16 in his starts.
— over 4-2 last six
— allowed run in first inning: 7-23
— record in first 5 innings: 6-14-3
— He is 1-0, 2.83 in five starts vs Minnesota

— Rangers are 6-13 in last 19 games.
— Texas is 31-28 at home.
— over 16-5 last 21 games
— scored run in first inning: 39-122
— record in first 5 innings: 48-54-20
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-5-3

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White Sox (29-93) @ Houston (65-55)
— Crochet is 0-3, 10.13 in his last four starts.
— Chicago lost his last nine starts.
— over 5-2 last seven
— allowed run in first inning: 4-24
— record in first 5 innings: 7-12-5
— He is 0-2, 5.68 in two games (1 start) vs Houston.

— White Sox lost 26 of last 28 games.
— Chicago is 11-49 on road.
— White Sox are 1-18 in road series openers.
— under 11-5 last 16 road games
— scored run in first inning: 23-122
— record in first 5 innings: 47-59-16
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4.1-3.1-x

— Arrighetti is 1-2, 2.84 in his last three starts.
— Astros are 1-6 in his last seven starts.
— under 6-0 last six
— allowed run in first inning: 8-21
— record in first 5 innings: 4-13-4
— He gave up 3 runs in 4.1 IP at Chicago June 20th.

— Houston won its last eight games.
— Astros are 32-26 at home.
— Astros are 12-3 in last 15 home series openers.
— under 10-4 last 14 games
— scored run in first inning: 37-120
— record in first 5 innings: 56-49-15
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3.1-3-x

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Trend: Sean Manaea is 10-0 (+10.00 units) as a favorite of -180 or more at home in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY NY METS (-238 vs. MIA)

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(951) WASHINGTON (55-67) at (952) PHILADELPHIA (71-50)
Trend: Under the total is on a 6-2 run in the WSH-PHI series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)

(953) MIAMI (45-76) at (954) NEW YORK-NL (62-59)
Trend: MIA bad vs. LH starters (9-32, -22.06 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+195 at NYM)

(955) LOS ANGELES-NL (71-51) at (956) ST LOUIS (60-61)
Trend: STL is 12-7 as a home underdog this season
System Match: PLAY ST LOUIS (+114 vs LAD)

(959) NEW YORK-AL (72-50) at (960) DETROIT (59-63)
Trend: NYY better bet on the road (40-23, +9.65 units)
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-192 at DET)

(961) BOSTON (63-57) at (962) BALTIMORE (72-50)
Trend: BOS slight Over on the road (34-22 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(963) MINNESOTA (68-53) at (964) TEXAS (56-66)
Trend: TEX trending Under at home (20-37 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)

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(965) CHICAGO-AL (29-93) at (966) HOUSTON (65-55)
Trend: CWS terrible on the road (11-49, -32.25 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+205 at HOU)

(967) TORONTO (57-64) at (968) CHICAGO-NL (59-63)
Trend: CHC better vs. AL teams (21-13, +9.61 units)
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (-115 vs TOR)

(969) KANSAS CITY (66-55) at (970) CINCINNATI (60-61)
Trend: CIN more Under vs. AL teams (9-19 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9.5)

(973) ARIZONA (69-53) at (974) TAMPA BAY (59-61)
Trend: AZ has been on a tear (16-4 record in the last 20 games)
System Match: PLAY ARIZONA (-112 at TB)

(975) CLEVELAND (72-49) at (976) MILWAUKEE (69-52)
Trend: Over the total is 11-6 when MIL is a home underdog this season
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)

(977) ATLANTA (64-57) at (978) LOS ANGELES-AL (52-69)
Trend: LAA not as good at home (26-38, -10.03 units)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (+124 vs. ATL)

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(951) WASHINGTON (55-67) at (952) PHILADELPHIA (71-50)
Trend: WSH is 10-38 (-26.66 units) vs. Divisional opponents with starter Patrick Corbin since 2020
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON (+225 at PHI)

(953) MIAMI (45-76) at (954) NEW YORK-NL (62-59)
Trend: Sean Manaea is 10-0 (+10.00 units) as a favorite of -180 or more at home in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY NY METS (-238 vs MIA)

(957) SAN DIEGO (69-53) at (958) COLORADO (44-78)
Trend: Cal Quantrill is profitable in the +135 to +145 line range (9-5 record, +7.55 units) in the last four seasons
System Match: FADE TEXAS (-122 vs. MIN)

(959) NEW YORK-AL (72-50) at (960) DETROIT (59-63)
Trend: Gerrit Cole is 28-6 (+12.40 units) vs. AL Central teams in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-192 at DET)

(963) MINNESOTA (68-53) at (964) TEXAS (56-66)
Trend: Andrew Heaney is 19-32 (-15.80 units) vs teams with a >53% win percentage in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE TEXAS (-122 vs. MIN)

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(971) SEATTLE (63-59) at (972) PITTSBURGH (56-64)
Trend: SEA is 29-15 (+19.20 units) as an underdog with Logan Gilbert in the last four seasons (including 14-6 (+9.21 units) on the road within -105 to +115 line range)
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (+110 at PIT)

(975) CLEVELAND (72-49) at (976) MILWAUKEE (69-52)
Trend: CLE is 2-7 (-4.85 units) against teams with a win percentage of 55% or higher by starter Gavin Williams in the last two seasons
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (-118 at MIL)

Trend: Aaron Civale is 19-8 (+4.07 units) in home night games as a favorite in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (*if they become a favorite, -102 currently)

Old Post 08-16-24 10:52 PM
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