The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65534
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Alex Perez +155 vs. Tatsuro Taira -180
Flyweight (125 pounds) main event
Twenty-four-year-old submission savant Taira ships in from Japan and is currently the face of UFC expansion in that country. He enters thirteenth ranked in the division at 15-0. A purple belt in BJJ, he is also a gifted grappler who has performed exceptionally well in his five UFC fights.
Taira is getting special treatment as Japan is a fertile expansion area for the organization. The UFC is providing him with this opportunity to face an established adversary in Perez, who is ranked fifth in the division.
Perez is a formidable challenge for the young Japanese fighter. Though Taira is an inch taller and will hold a five-inch arm reach advantage, the fact is that the stringency of UFC adversary Taira has faced pales in comparison to the elite-level opponent Perez has battled.
Those who read my columns understand how much I factor a fighter’s body of work, and recent fights Perez has thrived in, specifically against Muhammad Mokaev, force me to lean to him in this fight.
In addition to the people Perez has competed against, he’s been active. This will be his third fight since March 2nd, while Taira’s last bout was this past December.
Once this fight begins, Taira will use his natural athleticism, speed, and length to try to bewilder Perez.
Taira’s advances will revolve around grappling and trying to coax Perez into a roll on the mat. Taira’s grappling has been foundational in his past victories, and Perez has been submitted in prior bouts.
However, being submitted by experienced world-class flyweight BJJ practitioners like Deiveson Figueiredo (now the sixth-ranked bantamweight) and current flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja carries little shame in my handicapping, and Taira is not at that level of ability at this point in his fight career.
For his part, Perez will look to forcefully press the younger man backward and eventually against the cage and make this fight a toe-to-toe throwdown. Perez must establish his dominance early in this fight by showing little to no respect for his younger, less experienced foe. He must employ his wrestling acumen to thwart Taira’s grappling and keep this fight on the feet.
Perez’s strength, savvy and who he has competed against force me to favor him in this spot against a talent in Taira who is stepping up substantially in competition for this opportunity.
In this fight, Taira will have to prove to mixed martial arts investors that his grappling and overall fight acumen are complete enough to compete against one of the division’s elites in Perez.
Taira opened -250 to Perez +210, and in this situation, it is likely he will be awarded his Ph.D. in MMA, as I judge the current flow of money coming in on the more established mixed martial artist Perez as justified.
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds. Over -145.
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06-15-24 02:40 PM |
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