Sebatian Korda vs. Tommy Paul – Hertogenbosch

Korda earned a 7-5, 7-5 win over Luca Nardi, marking his second straight-set win in a row. Korda now gets a significant step up in competition, as Paul is the second-seeded player in this tournament and is extremely tough to beat. However, Korda’s game is a bit of a better fit for grass-court tennis, so I’m expecting him to come away with a massive win here.

Paul is one of the fastest players in the world, and his ability to play defense is valuable anywhere. But there’s no denying that it’s least valuable on grass, and this match will likely come down to ball striking. Well, Korda is one of the cleanest ball strikers in the world, which is why he was pegged as a potential sleeper heading into Wimbledon last year. That obviously didn’t end up going very well, but this is a new year and I think he’s going to do some damage before we switch surfaces again. Korda is also 3-1 against Paul in his career, so this is a matchup in which he should be feeling confident.

Bet: Korda ML (+102 – 1.5 units)

Jack Draper vs. Frances Tiafoe – Stuttgart

I’m never thrilled about playing something at -180 odds, but I like Draper to win and I don’t trust him to cover a spread. The Brit is absolutely tremendous on this surface, so I simply don’t see him losing to Tiafoe. But Draper is not as good of a returner as you’d like, so I can see him closing this out in long, competitive sets — and I can even see him dropping one. Still, Draper has a little too much all-around game for this version of Tiafoe. The American has not been playing good tennis this year, with his serving and returning dropping off from 2023. That’s not what you want on a surface in which those things are of the upmost importance.

I also just think Draper’s ability to maneuver himself around a grass court will make a big difference here. He should have a slight edge in long baseline exchanges. When you combine that with his big serve and rock-solid net play, it’s hard to see how Tiafoe will beat him on his favorite surface.

Bet: Draper ML (-180)