2:20 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs (-125, 7.5)

The Cardinals (33-34) just took two of three against the Pirates, winning yesterday’s series finale 4-3 as +105 home dogs. On the flip side, the Cubs (33-36) just dropped two of three against the Rays, losing yesterday’s series finale 3-2 as -112 road favorites. In this afternoon’s series opener, the Cardinals hand the ball to righty Kyle Gibson (4-2, 3.76 ERA) and the Cubs counter with lefty Jordan Wicks (1-2, 4.44 ERA). This line opened with the Cubs listed as a short -115 home favorite and the Cardinals a +105 road dog. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know who to take. However, despite this 50/50 moneyline bet split we’ve seen Chicago move from -115 to -125. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even. So, we know based upon the 10-cent steam move toward Chicago that pros have gotten down on the Cubs to get back on track in their return to Wrigley Field. Favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 219-140 (61%) with a 4% ROI this season. When two sub .500 teams face off, the favorite is 135-89 (60%) with a 2% ROI. We’ve also seen this total fall from 8 to 7.5. When the total falls at least a half run, the favorite is 206-140 (60%) with a 1% ROI. Chicago is 18-13 at home. St. Louis is 16-19 on the road. The Cardinals are hitting just .218 against lefties this season, second worst in MLB.

8:10 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers (-145, 7.5)

The Reds (33-35) just split a two-game series against the Guardians, winning Wednesday’s series finale 4-2 as -110 home favorites. Meanwhile, the Brewers (40-28) just took two of three against the Blue Jays, winning Wednesday’s series finale 5-4 as -125 home favorites. In tonight’s series opener, the Reds go with righty Hunter Greene (4-2, 3.61 ERA) and the Brewers tap fellow righty Freddy Peralta (4-3, 3.95 ERA). This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a -135 home favorite and Cincinnati a +120 road dog. Sharps have pounced on the Brewers laying relatively modest chalk at home, steaming Milwaukee up from -135 to -145. The Brewers are receiving roughly 70% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating both Pro and Joe support in addition to a 10-cent steam move in their favor. Milwaukee has the better bats, hitting .256 with 331 runs scored compared to Cincinnati hitting .226 with 295 runs scored. When both teams had the previous day off, as is the case here, the favorite is 494-302 (62%) with a 3% ROI since 2020. Milwaukee also has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win. The Brewers are 20-11 at home. The Reds are 15-16 on the road.

9:40 p.m. ET: Chicago White Sox at Arizona Diamondbacks (-190, 9)

The White Sox (18-52) just dropped three of four against the Mariners but avoided the sweep by winning yesterday’s series finale 3-2 in extra innings as +100 road dogs. On the other hand, the Diamondbacks (33-36) just took two of three against the Angels, winning yesterday’s series finale 11-1 as -195 home favorites. In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the White Sox start righty Chris Flexen (2-5, 5.06 ERA) and the Diamondbacks turn to fellow righty Ryne Nelson (3-5, 5.96 ERA). This line opened with Arizona listed as a -175 home favorite and Chicago a +150 road dog. Sharps aren’t scared off by the expensive chalk and have hammered the Snakes, driving Arizona up from -175 to -190. The Diamondbacks are receiving roughly 85% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating heavy one-way support from both wiseguys and the betting public in addition to a 15-cent steam move in their favor. Home Interleague favorites off a win, like the Snakes here, are 55-37 (60%) with a 2% ROI this season. When two sub .500 teams face off, the favorite is 135-89 (60%) with a 2% ROI. Arizona has the far better offense, hitting .249 with 329 runs scored compared to Chicago hitting .217 with only 214 runs scored. Chicago is just 6-29 on the road this season, the worst road team in MLB. Fading Chicago has resulted in a 52-18 (74%) record with a 13% ROI.