OVERs are 205-145-20 (59%) this Premier League season

Best OVER teams

Newcastle 24-10-3
Luton 22-9-6
West Ham 24-12-1
Chelsea 24-12-1
Wolves 22-13-2
Sheffield 24-13
Brentford 21-15-1
Man City 21-15-1
Aston Villa 20-14-3
Crystal Palace 20-14-3
Fulham 19-14-4

Man City odds to win Premier League

-175: Open

-250: Last week

-1600: Now

33% of bets (most) are on Man City to win league at BetMGM

EPL Final Day Stats (last 10 seasons):

3.32 - Goals per-game
61% - Over 2.5
40% - Over 3.5
23% - Over 4.5
49% - Over 2.5 and BTTS
59% - BTTS

Manchester City were a long way from their very best in Tuesday night’s vital victory at Tottenham but it was job done as far as Pep Guardiola’s group were concerned. The Citizens arrive at MD38 of the Premier League season knowing a home success over West Ham will secure a historic fourth successive top-flight title and it’s difficult to oppose the hosts.

West Ham are guaranteed to finish in the top-half of the EPL table and had their opportunity to give David Moyes a deserved send-off last weekend at the London Stadium. The Hammers have little left to play for and their recent road record has been rank, as has the majority of their matches when stepping up in class at elite opposition.

Moyes’ men have been turned over in five of their seven trips to teams above them, shipping at least three goals in all five defeats. In fact, West Ham own the third-worst away defensive record in the division and have shipped 3+ goals in 10 of their 18 games as guests. The Irons’ last four road trips have seen the visitors concede goal tallies of 5-5-1-4.

Now travelling to a highly-motivated Man City side, there’s potential for things to unravel and get ugly – so I like the prospect of backing Man City to win by Any Other Home Score in the Correct Score market at 2.12. To pocket ourselves profit here, all we need is Man City to win the match and score at least four goals in the process.

Our preferred play has paid-out in six of Man City’s last eight Premier League outings and should go close here considering West Ham’s dreadful defensive numbers – the Hammers are haemorrhaging goals of late and have allowed an awful 2.20 Expected Goals (xG) away from the London Stadium across the campaign thus far.

Having analysed the last 10 seasons worth of MD38 data from the Premier League, there is a clear trend towards end of season goals. That 100-game sample has seen an average of 3.32 goals per-game in final day fixtures, an increase of 0.60 goals per-match from the overall average goal count across the previous 37 rounds of action.

With the current campaign already demolishing the previous record for most goals in a 38-game EPL season – we’re currently on 1,209 with the previous best being 1,084 – the top-flight is boasting an eye-catching 3.27 goals per-game. Add that 0.60 goals per-game premium on top to cover the MD38 hike and 3.87 goals could be expected across the board.

Understandably, the market is already on-guard for potential goal-gluts but the match between all-but relegated Luton and nothing-to-play-for Fulham offers an opportunity for punters to get involved with the Over 3.5 Goals line paying an attractive 2.14.

Luton are the Both Teams To Score kings of the Premier League this season – hitting in 81% of their top-flight tussles, and with 43% of their overall encounters featuring a minimum of four strikes, a repeat holds plenty of appeal considering Fulham have delivered Over 3.5 Goals in almost 40% of their matches away from Craven Cottage.

Over 3.5 Goals in Luton vs Fulham

Burnley have made changes to their defensive structure, but in a match like this where they have nothing to lose because they’ve already been relegated, I think you will see Vincent Komany switch them back to a 4-2-3-1 and try to play their build out of the back, possession-dominant style that we saw in the Championship last season. He switched them to that formation recently against Newcastle and it did not go well. Newcastle scored goals off of a high turnover and one from when they were playing a mid-block and transitioned from deep, which are both things that Nottingham Forest thrive with.

Even though Forest tend to play more passively, they will press high if they believe they can be successful with it. Most recently, they had 21 high recoveries against Wolves, 11 against Everton and last weekend had 15 against Chelsea, so they are capable of pressing Burnley high and causing problems.

Nottingham Forest are also one the most dangerous transition teams in the Premier League with the combination of pace and ball carrying they have. They are averaging 2.93 counterattacks with a shot per 90 minutes in 2024, which is the highest mark in the Premier League, while Burnley are allowing 2.4, which is third-highest.

Burnley’s offense continues to be near the bottom in terms of creating chances. Since the beginning of February, they have created 19.7 expected goals in 15 matches, which is the lowest mark in the league outside of Brighton. So, how are they going to score against a Nottingham Forest side that has conceded the third fewest expected goals over that time frame?

The only weakness in this Nottingham Forest side is goalkeeping and set pieces. By a pretty wide margin, they have conceded the most expected goals off of set pieces, but Burnley are dead last in the Premier League in xG per set piece.

Luton Town will play what is very likely their final game before making a return to the League Championship when they host Fulham in both teams’ Premier League finale on Sunday.

Technically, Luton are mathematically alive to remain in the Premier League this season. Realistically, it’s a near-impossibility that they will win and make up a 12-goal difference against Nottingham Forest, which they would also need to lose on the final day.

Fulham are guaranteed to finish no worse than 14th, where they currently stand entering their final fixture. But they also may struggle a bit for motivation with the summer break looming, with the ability to jump only two spots to 12th with an away win and the right results elsewhere.

Fulham defeated Luton 1-0 at Craven Cottage in the sides’ previous meeting in mid-September.

Hatters supporters have only seen their team win four matches at Kenilworth Road this season, but they can’t say they haven’t been entertained.

Out of 18 games played at the intimate venue, 15 have either finished level or been decided by one goal. Both teams have also scored in 15 of those 18 games. And there have been some absolute instant classics, including Arsenal’s 4-3 victory in early December and Aston Villa’s 3-2 win in early March.

But Luton’s shortcoming has been in playing to the level of their opponents. The Hatters have taken only nine points in eight games against teams currently in the bottom half of the table, against seven points from 10 matches against the top half. That includes defeats to Burnley and Sheffield United, the two other sides who will join Luton in the Championship next season.

Meanwhile, Fulham’s home supporters have had plenty to cheer about this season, but those who have gone extra lengths to travel with the team may find themselves wondering why they’ve exerted the effort.

The Cottagers' nine home wins against three away victories is the largest disparity in the Premier League by proportion and the third-largest by overall number of wins. The xG numbers suggest less disparity in the quality of performances between the venues — Fulham’s home success has come mainly via exceeding xG predictions.

But against the teams in that lower half of the table, the Cottagers have earned points more often than not, taking four draws and a win from those eight games.

More generally, the menace in Marco Sliva’s attack has felt lacking for a few games now. They’ve created 1.5 or fewer expected goals in six of their last eight games and scored only five times total in their last seven.

Fulham have at times this season played some excellent attacking stuff, but more often than not they've disappointed in that area on their travels, and almost even more so against opponents in their region of the table.

Of their five multi-goal performances as an away side in the league, only two have come against bottom-half foes. In their eight previous away fixtures against teams in the bottom half, they've generated more than 1.5 expected goals in only one of those eight fixtures.

Luton have conceded in every home game against teams from that region of the table. But they've limited the damage to one goal more often than they haven't.

Newcastle will continue its battle for a spot in either the Europa League or Europa Conference League next season when it takes on Brentford.

It's been a really difficult season for Brentford, which last season achieved a top-half finish, but a wicked bad run of variance and injury luck hit them at the wrong time to be sitting 16th place going into the final day of the season. They are getting healthier and have been playing much better than their results indicate over the second half of the season, so they are definitely live to pull off an upset here at home.

Newcastle was beaten 3-2 by Manchester United on Wednesday, which dropped them into seventh place in the table and now in need of a win and for Chelsea to lose to get into a Europa League spot, barring Manchester United winning the FA Cup. Otherwise, they are likely looking at playing in the Europa Conference League next season. They have been on a good run recently in terms of their underlying metrics, but Brentford is an incredibly difficult team to beat, especially at home.

Brentford has gone through a lot of bad luck this season. Coming into this final match, they have a +4.5 xGD, but have a -7 actual goal differential for the season.

Brentford is a really good defense, especially defending in its own penalty area. The Bees have allowed the eighth-fewest non-penalty expected goals, are fourth in final third to box entry conversion rate and have the second-best xG per set piece allowed mark in the Premier League, which are all great things when facing Newcastle.

What Brentford has to do in this match is keep Newcastle out of transition. The last five matches they've played out of a 4-3-3 because they were the ones being tasked with controlling a majority of the possession. But in this match, you will see them most likely switch back to their normal 3-5-2 with five at the back when they don't have the ball. If they play passively and force Newcastle to break them down from build-up situations, they are going to have a lot of success in this match.

Having their best three attackers up top is so massive for Brentford because there have only been a handful of instances when all three have been available at the same time. Toney is obviously important due to his finishing prowess, but their most important attacker this season has been Bryan Mbeumo. His pace and finishing ability in transition is so deadly and crucial to Brentford's style of play. This season he has a 0.68 xG + xA per 90 minute rate, which is a top-10 mark in the Premier League.

Newcastle's defending against Manchester United was terrible and it showed just how weak they are in two key areas. First, Newcastle has built its success in large part because of its ability to press opponents high, win the ball off of them and create easy transition breaks for big chances. Over the second half of the season they became a lot more aggressive in that press after a period of playing a 4-5-1 midblock that was not working.

The issue with playing that aggressively is you leave yourself vulnerable for balls in behind the high defensive line. With Newcastle having a lot of slow defenders on that back line, it's allowed them to get exposed far too many times against good transition teams. Their defensive numbers have improved in large part thanks to the opponents they've been facing; Sheffield United, Burnley, Brighton and Manchester United are nowhere near the level of Brentford in terms of being able to create big chances off transition opportunities. Not to mention, Newcastle is allowing the most counter attack shots in the Premier League.

Those four teams are also four of the worst set piece offenses in the Premier League, while Brentford is one of the best, creating the second-most expected goals behind only Everton on set pieces this season. Newcastle has been dreadful at defending them, allowing the sixth-highest xG per set piece this season.

Newcastle has one of the most drastic home/road splits in the Premier League. At St. James Park, they have a +21.4 xGD, but away from home, they are at -8.8. They really struggled to create chances against Brentford's low block in the previous meeting, as they were aided by a penalty but only created 0.6 xG from their other seven shots.

Brentford has gone through a period of historic under performance and was one of the teams through the middle of the season that dealt with the most injuries. Now they are mostly healthy and have all of their attackers, including Ivan Toney and Mbeumo, available; those two should cause a lot of problems to Newcastle's back line.

This line is inflated towards Newcastle because they have something to play for and Brentford doesn't, but Brentford is a really hard working team that rarely puts in a lackluster performance

Brentford vs. Newcastle
Sunday, 11:00 a.m. ET

Newcastle will be looking to secure another season of European soccer here. They enter the final matchday of the season in seventh place, needing to leapfrog Chelsea, who are three points ahead to guarantee qualification, although seventh may yet mean a Europa Conference place if Manchester City beat Manchester United in the FA Cup final.

Whichever way you look at it though with the Red Devils breathing down their neck the Magpies will need a win to keep matters in their own hands. In short a must win fixture and the reason I am betting them here on the Moneyline at +110.

Having watched the game against Manchester United in midweek, I was surprised they lost 3-2 as I thought they were the better side, with Anthony Gordon in particular superb. Admittedly, their road form has not been the best, but they have started to consistently score goals. Six goals in their last two away games with 12 in their last four league games across all venues.

Brentford are a good opponent in that they have survived relegation and now are ready for the season to end so they can have a break. The Ivan Toney saga has dragged on, and they will be relieved to get that sorted and begin the rebuild.

The Bees record at home to the better sides is poor. They have lost to all the top four and only beaten the bottom four plus West Ham this term.

This is a massive game for Newcastle and Eddie Howe after overachieving last season and qualifying for the Champions League. The bar has been set and the least the owners expect now is more European nights even in the lesser ranked competition.

They will be hurt that they did not take anything out of that game on Wednesday night at Old Trafford. I also think the chance of European qualification has not been factored in, and if they needed a win for another season in the Champions League, they would be minus money.

Therefore that +110 looks a decent slice of value to me and a price on current form you would likely expect Newcastle to be at a normal point of the season not in a must win fixture.

EPL Best Bet: Newcastle Moneyline at +110.

Crystal Palace vs. Aston Villa — a.k.a the Christian Benteke derby — is one of the most "Premier League" Premier League games out there.

For a while, it was about as quintessentially mid-table of a matchup that could be thought up, but that might no longer be the case, as both clubs are in the ascendancy. Unai Emery took Villa from 15th to seventh last season and now has confirmed a fourth-place finish in his first full season in Birmingham. Meanwhile, in south London, Oliver Glasner has won six of his first 12 matches in charge, and he has made a top-half finish theoretically possible after the club were in 15th when he started.

These are two of the more tactically compelling and entertaining sides in England, and this is a matchup that serves up intrigue, even if there's not much at stake.

Since Glasner's appointment, Palace have looked like one of the more difficult propositions in the league. The Eagles have won five of their last six fixtures, including a remarkable 1-0 triumph at Anfield and a 4-0 thrashing of an injury-decimated Manchester United at home. Selhurst Park is always a difficult place for opposing teams to visit, and even more so recently, as Palace have won four of their six home contests under Glasner.

Results are one thing, but understanding how they come about is another. With Palace, you don't have to look much further than the front three to figure that out. Jean-Philippe Mateta has racked up 10 goals in the twelve matches with Glasner at the helm, and behind him Michael Olise and Eberechi Eze have been among the most potent creative forces in the world.

It would be a disservice to just give that trio 100% of the credit and ignore the rest of the team, because every Palace player has been performing at a high level. Tyrick Mitchell and Daniel Munoz have provided dynamism on both flanks with their overlapping and underlapping runs, Adam Wharton has been a beacon of technical security in the midfield and Joachim Andersen and Chris Richards, in Marc Guehi's absence, have provided defensive stability.

Guehi, returning from injury, has come off the bench in the Eagles' previous two matches, so there is a chance for him to start. Will Hughes picked up an injury against Wolves last time out, and his replacement in that game, Naouirouo Ahamada, was shown a red card, so he's out for this one as well. Glasner said Jefferson Lerma is fit, so he'll likely partner Wharton in the midfield of Palace's 5-2-3.

It's been quite the week for the Birmingham club. A Jhon Duran brace, with both goals coming after the 80th minute, salvaged an emotional 3-3 draw against Liverpool on Monday. Then, during their awards banquet on Tuesday, a Manchester City win over Tottenham guaranteed the Villans fourth place in the Premier League and punched their ticket into the Champions League next season.

Had Tottenham gotten a result, Villa might've needed a point or even a win from this contest to guarantee passage into Europe's top continental competition, but now this game basically serves them no purpose. After a grueling last couple of weeks, where they were eliminated by Olympiacos in the semifinals of the Europa Conference League, and more or less have stumbled to the end of the league campaign — they had won just two of their last eight Premier League fixtures — I'd expect an emotional letdown in this contest.

If Villa do play to their usual level, it's well-documented how good they can be. Their deep build-up is wonderful, and they love to draw in opposing presses to then play a line-breaking ball and generate a faux transition. The trio of Ollie Watkins, Moussa Diaby and Leon Bailey have feasted when they've gotten the ball in those situations this season. Defensively, they're not too bad either, although their willingness to sit off and cede territory in a 6-2-2 block has gotten them in trouble at times.

The line movement in this one sums up my thoughts pretty well. Crystal Palace opened at +160 on the moneyline and are now anywhere between -115 and -125, with most of that occurring after Villa's top four status was secured. On top of that, Palace's recent home form and general potency would make them a tough opponent regardless, but even moreso now that Villa don't have much to play for.

Crystal Palace ML (-115)

Crystal Palace vs. Aston Villa
Sunday, 11:00 a.m. ET

Simply put, I really fancy Crystal Palace to win this one and win it well. After Manchester City beat Tottenham on Tuesday night to confirm fourth place and Champions League football for Aston Villa next season, I expected the price on the home win to crash.

It is so hard to up or even maintain your levels when you have achieved something but still have fixtures to fulfill. That is the situation Villa are in here, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see a heavily rotated side from Unai Emery with a lot of youngsters involved.

We have seen it before when a team are crowned champions then get beat by lesser opposition. That exact scenario happened to Manchester City last season when they were beaten by Brentford after winning the title.

The Villains have done their work, earned the right, and duly celebrated at their end-of-season awards on Tuesday. Even before that, it must be said they have stumbled over the line, with no win in their last five matches, including crashing out of the Europa Conference League. They look leg-weary, and Captain John McGinn admitted as much.

Expect a massive move on Palace as kickoff approaches on this one with the hosts in red-hot form. Since Oliver Glasner took charge, they have played six home games winning four and scoring 17 goals in the process and are currently on an unbeaten run of six games across all venues.

I feel very bullish about this one. Although the Moneyline is a perfectly respectable -118, I am taking the Eagles on the -1 Asian Handicap at +145 in what could be the last game at Selhurst Park for one or both of their talisman Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise. Expect those two to put on a show as well as Jean-Philippe Mateta who has made clear his desire to break into the France squad for the Euro’s next month.

A fit, firing and confident Eze and Olise are the worst players a jaded Villa defense will want to face, and I can see Palace scoring three or four here. I’m not going to be too greedy and will settle for the -1 Asian Handicap, meaning we cash with a win by two goals or more and get a refund if the hosts win by exactly one goal.

EPL Best Bet: Crystal Palace -1 Asian Handicap at +145.

Man City look to win their third straight Premier League title on Sunday when they host West Ham.

Manchester City got a crucial win on Tuesday beating Tottenham 2-0, setting them up in a situation on the final day where all they need to do is beat West Ham to win the Premier League title. On paper, it's been a dominant run by Manchester City, who have won five straight matches while outscoring their opponents 17 to 1, but when you dig beneath the surface, it's not as dominant as you may think.

West Ham are trailing off here at the end of the season, but they are coming off a dominant 3-1 win over Luton, which has been their best offensive performance in a long time. This is David Moyes' final match as the West Ham manager, so maybe he has one last masterclass in him to shake up the Premier League title.

Even though they ended up with 2.4 expected goals and a 2-0 win over Tottenham on Tuesday, it really wasn't that great of a Manchester City performance. They only ended up taking seven shots in total for the match, one of which was a penalty and the first goal was a bit questionable as to whether it was offsides or not.

What was more concerning was the fact that they allowed Tottenham to break on them in transition a few times and create some decent chances, which is something that Manchester City have struggled with for a long time. Manchester City are still ninth in both PPDA and final third to box entry conversion rate allowed as well as 11th in build up completion percentage allowed. The reason they have conceded a lot of chances in transition is because Pep Guardiola has identified that they need to push Rodri and Gvardiol high up the pitch to help overload the last line of defense and has accepted that there will be times where they will be vulnerable.

I have no doubt that Manchester City will create chances in this match because West Ham have been the second-worst defensive team in 2024 behind only Luton Town, but there have been a few instances where they've struggled to break down low blocks like Nottingham Forest and Chelsea recently where they failed to create over one expected goal in either of those matches. So, it's not out of the realm of possibility that they get limited to a lot of low quality chances, which leaves them open to getting on the wrong side of variance.

Manchester City are well overdue to concede. They've allowed one goal in their last five matches off of 4.6 expected, so they could concede here.

I am not going to sit here and tell you that West Ham’s defense is going to be able to stop Manchester City’s offense because they can’t but what I will say is that Manchester City were pretty poor offensively against Tottenham on Tuesday, failing to create over one non-penalty expected goal and only took four shots (including a penalty) in the second half.

We’ve seen this now time and time again where teams who are decent in transition can give Manchester City problems. West Ham have the ball carriers and pace in Paqueta, Bowen and Kudus to get a few chances on Manchester City’s back line because they are going to be in 2 v 2 or 3 v 3 situations against City’s back line.

West Ham have had issues in possession this season when they’ve tried to be something they are not, which is a team that builds out of the back. When they decide to concede almost all of the possession and stick to their defensive block, the results aren’t terrible. There have been 14 matches where West Ham have held under 35% possession. In those 14 matches they are 6-3-5 and have won the expected goals battle in seven of those matches.

You have to think about the scenario that Manchester City are in right now as well. The goal difference no longer matters, so they just need to win. I have a really hard time believing that Pep Guardiola is not going to instruct his to sit on the lead once they get up two goals.

Manchester City have been in this scenario four times where it’s come down to the final day. They very famously needed two stoppage time goals to beat QPR in 2012, in 2014 they beat West Ham 2-0 on the final day to win the title over Liverpool, in 2019 they beat Brighton 4-1 on the final day to win the title over Liverpool again and then in 2022 needed to come back from 2-0 down against Aston Villa to win the title once again over Liverpool. So, my point is that it’s usually not very likely that they will run up the score in a must win match.

With Manchester City around -1250 to win the Premier League for an unprecedented fourth time, the odds compilers think the title race is over, and I make them right. So where is the value in this City game? In goals—or, more to the point, in the lack of them.

I think Pep’s men will come here with the crowd already celebrating the title. They will have loads of possession, keep the ball for long periods, go 1-0 or 2-0 up, and then showboat their way to the final whistle. With the Asian Total set at 4.0, we can take advantage of that.

If you love a tackle in a game – this one won’t be for you. West Ham may huff and puff a little bit but don’t expect them to cause the hosts any serious problems, who will cruise through to the trophy presentation after the final whistle.

Manchester City just need to match or better Arsenal’s result at home to Everton to take the title. Obviously, a win seals the deal but that doesn’t need to be by three, four or five goals.

On top of that, next weekend, they have the small matter of a Manchester derby in the FA Cup final. As a result, they will look to rest players in the second half and substitute the likes of Erling Haaland and Phil Foden, bringing on teammates that need an appearance to qualify for a winner’s medal.

All of which leaves me scratching my head as to why the Asian Total is 4.0. If they needed to win by four or more goals, I would fully understand it, but they don’t and that is why the unders at -103 is a massive play for me.

Yes, the Hammers have conceded a lot of goals recently, but you can only play the intensity of the crowd, and the Etihad will be awash with sky blue celebrating party time, creating the feel of a testimonial or pre-season friendly. In COVID times, with games played in front of empty stands, there was a dearth of goals, and we can expect the same here.

For those of you wanting statistical backup to the argument, I have it for you. These two sides have played each other 45 times in the Premier League with just four games seeing five or more goals, eight times would have resulted in a refund/push, and you would have lost THIRTY-THREE times.

Also, for over 4.5 goals markets you need both teams to come to the party. I can only see one team with an invite this weekend so for this to lose, Pep’s men would need to clear the line on their own. They don’t need to – especially with that FA Cup final on the horizon. Under 4.0 Asian total, therefore, is a massive play.

It almost feels strange to have a game on the final Sunday of the year where both sides have something meaningful to play for, but that's where this contest is at.

Chelsea merely needs a point to ensure European qualification, but whether sixth place is a ticket to the Europa League or Europa Conference League is contingent on the result of the FA Cup final. There's also a chance for the Blues to eclipse their local rivals Tottenham and finish fifth, but that would require Spurs to lose to Sheffield United, which isn't exactly likely.

The Cherries, while not in the hunt for continental soccer, are chasing a couple of other significant milestones. The first is a top-half finish, which they've only achieved once in their history — in 2016-17 under Eddie Howe. The other achievement would be securing the club's first top-flight point total over 50, as a win would put Bournemouth's final tally this season at 51.

The Blues are on a stellar run of form to finish off what has been a tumultuous campaign. They've won their last four matches, including a 2-1 win at Brighton on Wednesday, and have charged up the table into the European places. After the fitness issues they've faced and several poor results, finishing above Newcastle and Manchester United would be a pretty remarkable outcome for Mauricio Pochettino and co.

Chelsea have slowly been getting players back from injury, but that match with Brighton set them back slightly. Pochettino used a concussion sub to take Mykhailo Mudryk off in the first half, making him unavailable for this one, and Reece James was shown a straight red in the 88th minute, which means he'll start serving a multi-game suspension here as well.

Fortunately, in the short-term, neither of these absences should be too detrimental to the Blues' chances in this contest. Malo Gusto had been starting at right back over James — and performing well — and Christopher Nkunku, back from injury, looked lively and got on the scoresheet after replacing Mudryk in Wednesday's fixture. One more note on team news: Thiago Silva will likely start and captain the team in his last match at the club.

This is still very much the Cole Palmer show, but in recent weeks, Nicolas Jackson and Noni Madueke have started to pull more weight, and Nkunku's return bolsters this attack even further. Another significant development in Chelsea's possession play is inverting Marc Cucurella from left back, which seems to have aided their build-up ability and quality, and also allows Conor Gallagher to push further forward.

It's not quite been the end to the campaign Andoni Iraola likely would have envisioned for his team, with last weekend's home loss to Bournemouth a particularly tough result to take. There's still an opportunity here, at Stamford Bridge, to finish on a high note, but given their track record against top-half sides this season, it's going to be an uphill battle for the Cherries.

Bournemouth don't have many availability concerns, especially with Milos Kerkez now back from a red-card suspension and Tyler Adams returning from injury last time out. Whatever starting XI Iraola picks, y0u can be sure of two things: Dominic Solanke leading the line and a high-pressing approach.

The Cherries' out-of-possession work has carried them this far, and they haven't strayed from it at all. They'll engage Chelsea high and try to force high turnovers or any sort of transitional moments that Solanke and friends can capitalize on. Turning that philosophy into results against the top sides has been a struggle for Bournemouth this season, and it's unlikely that'll change in this contest.

When these teams squared off in the reverse fixture at the Vitality Stadium, Chelsea had the lion's share of chances and won the territorial battle. Now at home, with Pochettino developing his side quite a bit since that encounter, the Blues have the upper leg in this one.

This should be a fairly open game, as Chelsea should be able to break Bournemouth's press with regularity, but as they will control possession, there will be opportunities on the break for the visitors, especially with the not-so-mobile Thiago Silva at the back. As a result, I expect both sides to create enough chances to find the back of the net, but Chelsea are the much better team, and I expect them to prevail.

Pick: Both Teams to Score -115

Everton's role in Arsenal's push to become Premier League champions goes far beyond the result of this match.

Of course, the biggest immediate impact stems from the final score in this contest, as anything but a win would condemn Arsenal to a second-place finish, regardless of what happens at the Etihad. But, if not for Mikel Arteta, who played for the Toffees for the better part of a decade, the Gunners wouldn't be in this position to begin with.

And who managed Arteta during his time on Merseyside? None other than David Moyes, who is taking charge of West Ham for the final time in their clash with Manchester City. His friendship with Arteta is well-documented, and the Arsenal boss will surely be hoping that relationship translates into a West Ham win or draw, as his team cannot win the league without City dropping points on this final matchday of the season.

This isn't the first time Arsenal have played Everton on the final day with something on the line. Two years ago, the Gunners were hunting Champions League qualification, and despite cruising past the Toffees 5-1 at the Emirates, they didn't get the help they needed elsewhere, finishing fifth. Unless there's a miracle in Manchester, which we've seen a few times in the last 10 or so years, it appears Arsenal's title charge will meet a similar fate.

As you've likely heard a million times already, this fixture is must-win for the North London outfit if they want to have a hope of finishing top of the pile. Even though they've rattled off five wins in a row, including away matches against Tottenham and Manchester United, they're still two points behind Manchester City entering the final weekend of the season.

By most metrics, Arsenal have been the best team in England across 37 games, and they'll have clear motivation to show why that's the case in this one. Even if it ultimately won't propel them past the Cityzens, a strong result here would still make a statement and send them into next season on a somewhat positive note.

As has been the case in recent weeks, there are virtually no fitness concerns for the Gunners, and there's even a chance Jurrien Timber could make his first appearance since the first game of the season after recovering from a knee injury. Arteta is likely to stick with the same starting XI as what he put out at Old Trafford, as he tends to avoid changing a winning team. That would mean Takehiro Tomiyasu continues at left back, Thomas Partey at the base of the midfield and a front three of Leandro Trossard, Kai Havertz and Bukayo Saka.

If not for the two teams fighting for the title, Everton would be on the best run of form in the league having taken 13 of a possible 15 points from their last five matches. Granted, that's a fixture list that's included four of the current bottom five, but it's still a strong finish to a difficult campaign for the Toffees.

After navigating points deductions and a bit of a relegation battle, Sean Dyche and co. currently sit 15th in the league table. If they hadn't been deducted eight points, they'd be 11th with a chance of finishing top-half, but far from both the European places and the drop, there's not much for Everton to play for in this one from a standings perspective.

Of course, they'll also want to continue their stellar run into the offseason and maybe even play spoiler to potential title celebrations. Recent history at Emirates Stadium — they've won there just once this century, and that was with no crowd — plus Arsenal's quality means that's going to an extraordinarily tough ask though.

Everton will sit in their 4-5-1 mid/deep block and use Calvert-Lewin as a launching point for attacking transitions, which will be far and few between, and try to grind out a positive result in a low-scoring affair. The first goal will be crucial, as it will either give the visitors license to sit even deeper and see out a 1-0 win or force them to open up as they chase an equalizer. If it's the latter, things could get especially tricky for them, as Arsenal will look to exploit the gaps that start to appear.

The only way goal difference will matter in determining the title is if Manchester City draw and Arsenal win here, but the Gunners will have a superior margin in that case no matter what, so they won't necessarily have to win by as much as possible. However, even if the trophy is out of reach, there will likely be a feel-good factor around the stadium and the home side will want to reward that — as well as capping off another season of progress — with an entertaining display.

Mental circumstances aside, Everton struggle to soak up pressure on the road, and once the Gunners find the breakthrough — which, needing a win, they almost certainly will — they'll have to open up a bit to find an equalizer. That will create gaps for their opponents to exploit, and the floodgates will open.

Pick: Arsenal -2.5 (+120)

Sheffield United will have one last chance to give their home supporters something to cheer about in the Premier League when they host a Tottenham Hotspur side that needs a point to guarantee a fifth-place finish.

United’s return to the League Championship next season has been sealed for weeks, and their six-game losing streak is tied for their longest this season.

Meanwhile, Tottenham have also lost five of six to close the season and saw their faint Champions League qualification hopes erased in Tuesday’s home loss to Manchester City.

Spurs only narrowly defeated the Blades 2-1 in their previous league meeting in London in September.

For once last weekend, Sheffield United’s defense held relatively firm in a 1-0 defeat at Everton. But an attack that had been showing signs of life in March and April continued to look less threatening, as has been the pattern in recent weeks.

You may recall me backing the pattern of the Blades scoring two or more goals when winter loan signing Ben Brereton Diaz appears. And even now, the trend of the league’s worst side scoring twice in six of his 13 league games represents a dramatic improvement from their production when he’s not in the fold.

But that includes only one of the last six matches for the Blades, who have created less than 1.0 expected goals in three of those. And even more frustratingly, there appears to be a relationship between expected goals created and actual goals conceded, with Chris Wilder’s squad letting in three or more in each of the last four games in which they’ve generated at least 1.5 xG.

With Oli McBurnie's continued absence due to a thigh issue, Brereton Diaz and Cameron Archer will probably start together up front for a third straight match in a striking partnership that looks better on paper than it has performed so far.

In defense, Abdoulaye Doucoure's winner for Everton last week marked a Premier League-record 101st league goal conceded by the Blades, surpassing the 100 allowed by 1993-1994 Swindon Town.

Spurs’ late-season slide owes largely to a brutal stretch of the schedule, in which their five losses in six games have all come against the league’s current top seven.

That said, Tottenham are also still a part of that seven-team cohort, and they should expect to do better than zero points out of 15 possible when playing against those peers.

Spurs probably deserved better out of the two home losses in that stretch to the two remaining title contenders. Their response after going behind to Manchester City in Tuesday’s 2-0 defeat was particularly impressive, and they only conceded a second on account of a somewhat unfortunate penalty.

That said, the twin absences of Richarlison and Timo Warner have probably made Spurs easier to defend. While team scoring leader Son Heung-Min is healthy and active, both Richarlison and Warner have taken chances at a higher rate of expected goals per 90 minutes.

Son did what he very rarely does against City, failing to convert the best chance of the night on the break in the second half with a chance to level the match at 1-1.

Manager Ange Postecoglou may be most wary of how poorly his team's defense has traveled even against lesser opponents. Spurs have conceded multiple goals to their matches against bottom-half opponents five times. They've conceded more than 2.0 expected goals in four of those games.

Yes, the Blades' attack has slowed in recent weeks, but their chance generation hasn't entirely, and they're playing a uniquely flawed defensive side given how heavily Spurs are favored.

And indeed, the Londoners will probably find a way to get at least the point they need to ensure their fifth-place finish, and very possibly three.

But you can't ignore that poor track record against a Blades attack that is still competent, even if the defense is utterly woeful.

After beating Newcastle on Wednesday, Manchester United is still alive for a Europa Conference League spot, but it will likely need a win against Brighton to achieve that.

Brighton has been a rollercoaster under Roberto De Zerbi over the second half of the season. They've had a lot of bad performances where they cannot create anything offensively and then will have performances like the one against Aston Villa at home where they create three expected goals and hold them to two shots. A win would secure a top-half finish for a third straight season for the Seagulls, which would be a massive accomplishment for the club.

Manchester United has been the most scrutinized club in the Premier League this season, and it's honestly crazy just how much they have over performed to be able to even be in a position for European football. To be fair, they have sustained a lot of injuries throughout the year, but also being one of the most tactically flawed teams doesn't help things. It's been reported that United is 50-50 on whether they want to bring Erik ten Hag back, so this match is very crucial to not only his future, but the future of the club.

De Zerbi is a great manager and has gotten Brighton to places the club never even dreamed, but in possession, his team has become predictable.

Plan A for De Zerbi is to build out of the back, hold the ball, bait the opponent into pressing and then find the free man after engaging the press to create a transition opportunity going forward. It worked last year and for a stretch at the beginning of this season. What happened though is teams have figured out that if you don’t press Brighton and play super passive, it tends to struggle to create chances. Brighton wants to overload the center parts of the pitch and always have a 4 vs. 3 in build up, but they aren't able to play though the middle effectively anymore and it’s put a real damper on their offensive numbers.

The other end of the spectrum on Brighton is teams do press their build relentlessly and are causing problems with high turnovers. It shows in the numbers too; Brighton has scored two non-penalty goals since the beginning of April. Since the beginning of February, the Seagulls are dead last in the Premier League, averaging only 1.39 xG per 90 minutes.

The losses of Kaoru Mitoma, Evan Ferguson, Solly March and Pervis Estupiñán have really put a damper on Brighton's attack even though they are so deep.

Ten Hag has too many times gotten Manchester United caught in between two different tactical systems when they are out of possession. Normally, the front four in their 4-2-3-1 will press the opponent, but once that first line of pressure is beaten there is acres of space to run at them. Lately, ten Hag has moved Manchester United to being a little more passive defensively, which has helped slightly, even if their defensive numbers are still terrible.

But teams that really punish Manchester United are usually the ones that can play fast and very direct, which are really the only matches in which Manchester United has a chance because of its prowess attacking in transition. Brighton is not one of those teams. De Zerbi wants his team to play out of the back and have control over the match, which means the pace is typically pretty slow.

The Manchester United attack can be effective at times, but it really hasn't been that great over the full course of the season. Manchester United mainly relies on shots from outside the box or low-quality chances; they have created the fewest big scoring chances of anyone in the Premier League. Not a single player on Manchester Untied has an xG per 90 scoring rate over 0.35, which shows how ineffective their attack has been.

Brighton beat Manchester United in the previous meeting 3-1, but there were only 2.7 expected goals created in that match.

Brighton is dealing with a lot of injuries, but the main benefit the Seagulls have is depth. They will be missing their captain Lewis Dunk for this match, which is not a massive loss defensively, but he is their main aerial threat on set pieces, which is something United has been average at defending this season.

The Brighton offense has had its woes, but the Brighton defense has actually been pretty good, allowing the seventh-fewest non-penalty expected goals and the sixth-fewest big scoring chances. That being said, they've been done in by bad goalkeeping play.

Liverpool will want to send outgoing manager Jurgen Klopp off in style when they host Wolves in Sunday’s Premier League finale.

Klopp announced he would be ending his tenure on Merseyside after a decade in charge back in January while the Reds were in the midst of a genuine title challenge. He leaves having won four domestic trophies, including the 2019-20 league title, as well as the 2018-19 UEFA Champions League.

Wolves are closing a solid first year under manager Gary O’Neil, who has brought mid-table security to a club that hasn’t had that in recent seasons. But a combination of injuries and natural regression have resulted in a stretch of one win in eight for the Midlanders, who could still finish as high as 10th if several results go their way on Sunday.

Liverpool won these teams’ previous meeting 3-1 at the Molineaux back in mid-September, just before O’Neil’s men began an extended home unbeaten run.

Liverpool haven’t been as explosive in attack as the Manchester City or Arsenal teams they challenged much of the season, but their true failing down the stretch of the season has come in defense.

The Reds have conceded two or more goals 15 times overall in all competitions this season. Seven of those occasions have come since the start of April, including four straight in the league. Most recently, Jurgen Klopp’s men lost a two-goal advantage late in a 3-3 draw at Aston Villa that virtually helped the Villains seal their fourth-place finish.

The good news for home supporters going to Anfield is that most of those performances have come on Liverpool’s travels. But the Reds conceded three times to an excellent Atalanta side in the first leg of their Europa League defeat and twice to Tottenham Hotspur in a 4-2 league win.

The emotion on Sunday’s occasion will also present a major unknown in how it could shape the hosts’ performance.

Klopp’s tenure is the most significant in the club’s history since Kenny Dalglish’s first turn in charge that ended in 1991. It’s the longest continuous reign at one of world football’s most famous jobs since Bob Paisley guided the Reds from 1974 to 1983.

Wolves have had the opposite problem as Liverpool during their stretch run, with an attack that hasn’t completely stalled but has failed to show the explosiveness of earlier in the season.

With injuries plaguing all of O’Neil’s preferred front four at different stages, his side hasn’t scored more than two goals since a 4-2 win over Chelsea in early February.

With the manager’s higher pressing style, that has made Wolves’ margin for error too small to string together the consistent results they accrued before New Year’s. Since the Chelsea win, they’ve taken points from back-to-back matches only once, as compared to previous unbeaten runs of four and five games in league play before that February fixture.

Matheus Cunha scored to pull Wolves within one in what finished a 3-1 defeat to a surging Crystal Palace in their final home match of the season. The tally pulled the Brazilian even with Hwang Hee-Chan for the team lead with 12 league goals, with one of the pair having scored in Wolves’ last three matches.

As often with these games where one side is heavily favored, to the extent there is any value on the moneyline, it is on the favorite.

The -700 odds imply Liverpool would win 87.5% of the time in this game. And the Reds have actually won eight out of nine against bottom-half foes. The only loss came against Crystal Palace at a time when the Eagles were developing into far better form than anything Wolves' play has suggested lately.

But the Reds have not been able to gain separation in such games in the way their other top-tier clubs have at times. And there may not be much incentive here in a game loaded with emotion and finality.

Burnley have made changes to their defensive structure, but in a match like this where they have nothing to lose because they’ve already been relegated, I think you will see Vincent Komany switch them back to a 4-2-3-1 and try to play their build out of the back, possession-dominant style that we saw in the Championship last season. He switched them to that formation recently against Newcastle and it did not go well. Newcastle scored goals off of a high turnover and one from when they were playing a mid-block and transitioned from deep, which are both things that Nottingham Forest thrive with.

Even though Forest tend to play more passively, they will press high if they believe they can be successful with it. Most recently, they had 21 high recoveries against Wolves, 11 against Everton and last weekend had 15 against Chelsea, so they are capable of pressing Burnley high and causing problems.

Nottingham Forest are also one the most dangerous transition teams in the Premier League with the combination of pace and ball carrying they have. They are averaging 2.93 counterattacks with a shot per 90 minutes in 2024, which is the highest mark in the Premier League, while Burnley are allowing 2.4, which is third-highest.

Burnley’s offense continues to be near the bottom in terms of creating chances. Since the beginning of February, they have created 19.7 expected goals in 15 matches, which is the lowest mark in the league outside of Brighton. So, how are they going to score against a Nottingham Forest side that has conceded the third fewest expected goals over that time frame?

The only weakness in this Nottingham Forest side is goalkeeping and set pieces. By a pretty wide margin, they have conceded the most expected goals off of set pieces, but Burnley are dead last in the Premier League in xG per set piece.

Things have been improving for Chelsea over the past few matches with their build up structure. They’ve began inverting Marc Cucarella into the middle of the pitch and going with a 3-2-5 with Palmer and Gallagher dropping into the half spaces, which has allowed their build up to be a lot more connected than the 3-1-6 they were utilizing in the beginning of the season.

With that being said, this stretch of good results has largely come against teams that either play passively or aren’t great at pressing, so putting up big numbers against teams like Brighton, West Ham, Nottingham Forest or Aston Villa is fine, but doing it against teams like Tottenham, Arsenal and Manchester City is another thing.

Against those three opponents, Chelsea allowed 61 high recoveries (allowed the opponent to gain possession in the final third), which shows how far they have to go in terms of being a good build up team. Forcing high turnovers and winning the ball in the opponent's final third is what Bournemouth do best. Since the calendar turned to 2024, Bournemouth have a 8.8 PPDA, which is the third-best mark in the league behind only Liverpool and Tottenham. They also can exploit Chelsea where they are weakest defending in transition.

For the season, Chelsea are 18th in the final third to box entry conversion rate allowed and allowed numerous chances in transition against Nottingham Forest over the weekend. Box defending has been a bit of an issue for Chelsea as well, especially defending crosses because they are allowing one of the highest cross completion rates in the Premier League.