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msudogs
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Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

NHL Lagniappe 4/22

Monday, 04/22/2024 (61) TORONTO vs. (62) BOSTON
Favoring: Over on the total.
Play Over - Any team against the total (BOSTON) - well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) in the 2nd half of the season
(120-65 over the last 5 seasons.) (64.9%, +53.7 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (22-11 +10.4 units).

Monday, 04/22/2024 (61) TORONTO vs. (62) BOSTON
Favoring: Over on the total.
Play Over - Any team against the total (TORONTO) - well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) in the 2nd half of the season
(120-65 over the last 5 seasons.) (64.9%, +53.7 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (22-11 +10.4 units).

Old Post 04-22-24 10:22 PM
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msudogs
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Monday, 04/22/2024 (65) VEGAS vs. (66) DALLAS
Favoring: VEGAS on the money line.
VEGAS is 26-10 (+19.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was VEGAS 3.3, OPPONENT 2.5 - (Rating = 3*)

Monday, 04/22/2024 (65) VEGAS vs. (66) DALLAS
Favoring: VEGAS on the money line.
DALLAS is 4-11 (-12.1 Units) against the money line in home games revenging a loss where opponent scored 5 or more goals over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DALLAS 3.1, OPPONENT 3.8 - (Rating = 3*)

Monday, 04/22/2024 (67) LOS ANGELES vs. (68) EDMONTON
Favoring: LOS ANGELES on the money line.
EDMONTON is 8-16 (-19.4 Units) against the money line after allowing 4 goals or more this season.
The average score was EDMONTON 3, OPPONENT 3.7 - (Rating = 3*)

Monday, 04/22/2024 (61) TORONTO vs. (62) BOSTON
Favoring: TORONTO on the money line.
TORONTO is 23-9 (+18.3 Units) against the money line after allowing 4 goals or more in a loss to a division rival since 1996.
The average score was TORONTO 3.4, OPPONENT 2.6 - (Rating = 2*)

Old Post 04-22-24 10:22 PM
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Monday, 04/22/2024 (63) NY ISLANDERS vs. (64) CAROLINA
Favoring: Under on the total.
CAROLINA is 21-4 UNDER (+16.3 Units) against excellent power play teams - scoring on > 19% of their chances in the 2nd half of the year this season.
The average score was CAROLINA 3.1, OPPONENT 1.9 - (Rating = 5*)

Monday, 04/22/2024 (63) NY ISLANDERS vs. (64) CAROLINA
Favoring: Under on the total.
CAROLINA is 17-4 UNDER (+12.3 Units) against good offensive teams - >=29 shots on goal, convert >=17% pp - 2nd half of the season this season.
The average score was CAROLINA 2.8, OPPONENT 2 - (Rating = 4*)

Monday, 04/22/2024 (63) NY ISLANDERS vs. (64) CAROLINA
Favoring: Under on the total.
CAROLINA is 22-6 UNDER (+15.1 Units) against excellent power play teams- scoring on >17.5% of their chances in the 2nd half of the year this season.
The average score was CAROLINA 3.1, OPPONENT 2 - (Rating = 4*)

Monday, 04/22/2024 (63) NY ISLANDERS vs. (64) CAROLINA
Favoring: Under on the total.
CAROLINA is 25-8 UNDER (+15.8 Units) against good offensive teams - scoring 2.85+ goals/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
The average score was CAROLINA 3.1, OPPONENT 2.1 - (Rating = 4*)

Old Post 04-22-24 10:24 PM
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msudogs
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Since 2012, the Stanley Cup round of the NHL Playoffs is the only one in which home teams have produced a profit for bettors. Perhaps not a surprise, considering the enhanced stakes. Here are the records:
First Round: 268-246 (-74.5 units, -14.5% ROI)
Second Round: 151-108 (-1.6 units, -0.6% ROI)
Conference Finals: 67-61 (-18.25 units, -14.3% ROI)
Stanley Cup: 37-26 (+1.35 units, +2.1% ROI)

Game 6 of an NHL Playoffs series is also the only one in which home teams have produced a profit for bettors. The negative returns for hosts in games 1, 2, 5, and 7 are particularly troubling, since those are the games hosted by the better seed, and all four are below -11.5% ROI. Here are the records by game #:
Game 1: 93-72 (-19.35 units, -11.7% ROI)
Game 2: 91-74 (-29.65 units, -18% ROI)
Game 3: 88-77 (-2.55 units, -1.5% ROI)
Game 4: 85-80 (-8.45 units, -5.1% ROI)
Game 5: 80-64 (-25.75 units, -17.9% ROI)
Game 6: 60-49 (+3.3 units, 3% ROI)
Game 7: 27-24 (-10.6 units, -20.8% ROI)

Old Post 04-22-24 10:30 PM
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