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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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NBA Lagniappe 4/22
First-Round Game Trends by Line/Total Range
• Big favorites have held a significant edge—Since the start of the 2014 playoffs, NBA first-round favorites of 8.5 points or more are 85-13 SU and 58-40 ATS (59.2%).
System Matches: PLAY BOSTON (-15 vs MIA)
• First round home favorites of four points or less have proven to be a bad investment lately, as over the last 10 playoff seasons, they are just 37-33 SU and 28-39-1 ATS (41.8%).
System Matches: FADE MINNESOTA (-3 vs PHX), FADE MILWAUKEE (-1.5 vs IND)
• The last two NBA first-round playoffs saw 49 Unders, 37 Overs – (57%). So far in 2024, there have been 6 Unders, 2 Overs.
System Matches: CONSIDER PLAYING UNDER
• With the meteoric rise in scoring over the last few years in the NBA, it is interesting to note that in the lowest totaled first round playoff games over the last five postseasons, 218 or less, Under the total is 56-33-3 (62.9%). In all games with totals above 218, Over the total is 68-58-2 (54%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: LAL-DEN, IND-MIL
PLAY UNDER in: ORL-CLE, PHI-NYK, PHX-MIN, DAL-LAC, MIA-BOS, NOP-OKC
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04-22-24 10:26 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Last Game Trends
• Home teams are a better wager when coming off a win in a series – Home teams coming off a win in the prior game of a series are 68-37 SU and 57-48 ATS (54.3%) since 2016. Those coming off a loss are 77-65 SU and 65-74-3 ATS (46.8%) in that same span. Naturally, the latter are often the lower-seeded team in a series, but this is a good indication of how momentum aids a team.
System Matches: PLAY ALL 8 HOME TEAMS
• Blowout losses carry over – There is a bit of misconception when it comes to teams “bouncing back” from rough first-round losses. In fact, teams that lost their previous game by 10 points or more are just 72-130 SU and 85-114-3 ATS (42.7%) in the next contest since 2013. However, they were 11-7 ATS last year, including 8-1 ATS at home.
System Matches: FADE ORLANDO (+5.5 at CLE), FADE LA LAKERS (+7.5 at DEN), FADE PHOENIX (+3 at MIN), FADE INDIANA (+1.5 at MIL), FADE DALLAS (-2.5 at LAC), FADE MIAMI (+15 at BOS)
• Heartbreaking losses have a galvanizing effect – Teams that lose close games, or those decided by 3 points or less, in the first round of the NBA playoffs have bounced back with a 37-12 SU and 33-14-2 ATS (70.2%) mark in the next game since 2014. In the line range of +5 to -5, these teams are on an amazing 23-5 SU and 20-6-2 ATS (83.3%) surge! Of note, only three of last season’s 43 first-round games were decided by 3 points or fewer.
System Matches: PLAY NEW ORLEANS (+7.5 at NOP)
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04-22-24 10:28 PM |
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