Saturday, 02/11/2023 (51) VANCOUVER vs. (52) DETROIT
Favoring: VANCOUVER on the money line.
Play On - Road teams against the money line (VANCOUVER) - after having lost 2 of their last 3 games, a bad team (30% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record in the second half of the season
(47-24 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.2%, +44.5 units. Rating=5*)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0 +2.8 units).

Saturday, 02/11/2023 (57) CALGARY vs. (58) BUFFALO
Favoring: CALGARY on the money line.
Play On - Road teams against the money line (CALGARY) - horrible power play killing team-opp score on more than 19% of chances in the 2nd half of the season, hot offensive team - 5 straight games with 30 or more shots on goal
(108-51 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.9%, +66.7 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (10-3 +7 units).

Saturday, 02/11/2023 (51) VANCOUVER vs. (52) DETROIT
Favoring: VANCOUVER on the money line.
Play On - Road underdogs against the money line (VANCOUVER) - after having lost 2 of their last 3 games, a bad team (30% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record in the second half of the season
(40-23 over the last 5 seasons.) (63.5%, +38.5 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0 +2.8 units).

Saturday, 02/11/2023 (57) CALGARY vs. (58) BUFFALO
Favoring: CALGARY on the money line.
Play On - Road teams against the money line (CALGARY) - poor power play killing team - opp score on more than 17.5% of chances in the 2nd half of the season, hot offensive team - 5 straight games with 30 or more shots on goal
(135-67 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.8%, +73.6 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (10-3 +7 units).

Saturday, 02/11/2023 (65) COLORADO vs. (66) FLORIDA
Favoring: Over on the total.
Play Over - Any team against the total (FLORIDA) - in non-conference games, off 2 consecutive home wins by 2 goals or more
(66-24 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.3%, +39.2 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (8-4 +3.5 units).

Saturday, 02/11/2023 (57) CALGARY vs. (58) BUFFALO
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - Any team against the total (CALGARY) - revenging a loss vs opponent as a home favorite, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team
(101-49 since 1997.) (67.3%, +46.9 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (20-10 +8.5 units).

Saturday, 02/11/2023 (53) NY ISLANDERS vs. (54) MONTREAL
Favoring: Over on the total.
Play Over - Any team against the total (MONTREAL) - off 3 consecutive losses against division rivals, with a losing record in the second half of the season
(49-19 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.1%, +28.5 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0 +1 units).

Saturday, 02/11/2023 (71) ARIZONA vs. (72) ST LOUIS
Favoring: Over on the total.
Play Over - Any team against the total (ST LOUIS) - off 3 consecutive losses against division rivals, with a losing record in the second half of the season
(49-19 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.1%, +28.5 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0 +1 units).

Saturday, 02/11/2023 (69) NY RANGERS vs. (70) CAROLINA
Favoring: CAROLINA on the money line.
CAROLINA is 22-2 (+19.2 Units) against the money line in home games after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CAROLINA 4, OPPONENT 2 - (Rating = 4*)

Saturday, 02/11/2023 (69) NY RANGERS vs. (70) CAROLINA
Favoring: CAROLINA on the money line.
CAROLINA is 22-2 (+19.2 Units) against the money line in home games after a 3 game unbeaten streak over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CAROLINA 4, OPPONENT 2 - (Rating = 4*)

Saturday, 02/11/2023 (63) WASHINGTON vs. (64) BOSTON
Favoring: BOSTON on the money line.
BOSTON is 20-2 (+17.5 Units) against the money line in home games after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 4, OPPONENT 1.9 - (Rating = 3*)

Saturday, 02/11/2023 (57) CALGARY vs. (58) BUFFALO
Favoring: BUFFALO on the money line.
CALGARY is 15-23 (-20.5 Units) against the money line against good offensive teams - averaging 29.5+ shots on goal per game this season.
The average score was CALGARY 3, OPPONENT 3.1 - (Rating = 3*)

Saturday, 02/11/2023 (65) COLORADO vs. (66) FLORIDA
Favoring: Under on the total.
COLORADO is 9-0 UNDER (+9 Units) revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season.
The average score was COLORADO 2.1, OPPONENT 2.2 - (Rating = 5*)

Saturday, 02/11/2023 (61) TAMPA BAY vs. (62) DALLAS
Favoring: Under on the total.
DALLAS is 13-2 UNDER (+10.7 Units) second half of the season this season.
The average score was DALLAS 2.8, OPPONENT 2.1 - (Rating = 4*)

Saturday, 02/11/2023 (51) VANCOUVER vs. (52) DETROIT
Favoring: Over on the total.
VANCOUVER is 21-6 OVER (+14.4 Units) in a road game where where the total is 6 or more this season.
The average score was VANCOUVER 3.6, OPPONENT 4.1 - (Rating = 4*)

Saturday, 02/11/2023 (51) VANCOUVER vs. (52) DETROIT
Favoring: Over on the total.
VANCOUVER is 12-1 OVER (+11.2 Units) in February games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was VANCOUVER 4.2, OPPONENT 3.8 - (Rating = 4*)

Faves went 3-0 Friday with Coyotes-Blackhawks closing pick-'em in the Hawks' 4-3 OT win. Maple Leafs (-250 in 3-0 win at Blue Jackets), Rangers (-185 in 6-3 win vs. Kraken) and Penguins (-260 in 6-3 win at Ducks) all won as chalk and also covered -1.5 puck line. Home/road teams split 2-2. Overs led 3-1.

Since 2013-14, teams that have had between one and three days off are 129-76 (62.9 percent) against teams that have had six-plus days off. It makes sense. One team has their legs under them after a long layoff, the other doesn’t. But, what about home and road splits? Well, the sample size is bigger for road teams, but the win rate has basically held up regardless of venue. Home teams are 84-49 (63.2 percent) in this situation while road teams are 45-27 (62.5 percent).

New York Islanders (Regulation) -130

The Islanders have only played three games since acquiring forward Bo Horvat from the Vancouver Canucks, but early signs are positive. New York has outscored the opposition 3.5 – 2 at even strength while posting an expected goal differential of +1.5 per 60 minutes.

It’s far too early to tell if the Islanders offensive struggles are behind them, but after losing 6-5 to the Canucks on Thursday, the Islanders should bounce back in Montreal. The Canadiens have the worst home record since Dec. 1st and rank among the bottom-five on offense and defense.

New York has been a top-10 team on defense all season, and even though their offense has been abysmal as of late, the fact that there are now two scoring lines means things should improve rather quickly. This is a mismatch and I’m betting on the road team to win in regulation.

Toronto – Auston Matthew is out.
Colorado – Cale Makar is out.

New Jersey – Jack Hughes is out.

Washington – Tom Wilson is day-to-day. John Carlson is out.

Tampa Bay – Nick Paul is day-to-day.

St. Louis – Ryan O’Reilly is expected to play for the first time since Dec. 31st. Pavel Buchnevich is also expected to return to the lineup. Robert Thomas is day-to-day.

Pittsburgh – Kris Letang was a surprise scratch on Friday due to illness. Goaltender Tristan Jarry hasn’t had a full practice yet and isn’t expected to play.

Florida – Head coach Paul Maurice is hopeful that Barkov will be in the Panthers’ lineup against Colorado.

Detroit – Lucas Raymond is day-to-day.
Chicago – Jonathan Toews is out.